Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea
Abstract Background With the prompt administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, highly vaccinated countries have begun to lift their stringent control measures. However, considering the spread of highly transmissible new variants, resuming socio-economic activities may lead to th...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2022-11-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14576-w |
| _version_ | 1811217069772898304 |
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| author | Sung-mok Jung Kyungmin Huh Munkhzul Radnaabaatar Jaehun Jung |
| author_facet | Sung-mok Jung Kyungmin Huh Munkhzul Radnaabaatar Jaehun Jung |
| author_sort | Sung-mok Jung |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background With the prompt administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, highly vaccinated countries have begun to lift their stringent control measures. However, considering the spread of highly transmissible new variants, resuming socio-economic activities may lead to the resurgence of incidence, particularly in nations with a low proportion of individuals who have natural immunity. Here, we aimed to quantitatively assess an optimal COVID-19 exit strategy in the Republic of Korea, where only a small number of cumulative incidences have been recorded as of September 2021, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis. Methods A discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group was used, accounting for the variant-specific transmission dynamics and the currently planned nationwide vaccination. All parameters were calibrated using comprehensive empirical data obtained from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Results Our projection suggests that tapering the level of social distancing countermeasures to the minimum level from November 2021 can efficiently suppress a resurgence of incidence given the currently planned nationwide vaccine roll-out. In addition, considering the spread of the Delta variant, our model suggested that gradual easing of countermeasures for more than 4 months can efficiently withstand the prevalence of severe COVID-19 cases until the end of 2022. Conclusions Our model-based projections provide evidence-based guidance for an exit strategy that allows society to resume normal life while sustaining the suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic in countries where the spread of COVID-19 has been well controlled. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T06:48:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-48c80a6e97304eb6a25e27510cc88f9c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T06:48:00Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-48c80a6e97304eb6a25e27510cc88f9c2022-12-22T03:43:27ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582022-11-0122111010.1186/s12889-022-14576-wModel-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of KoreaSung-mok Jung0Kyungmin Huh1Munkhzul Radnaabaatar2Jaehun Jung3Kyoto University School of Public HealthDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of MedicineArtificial Intelligence and Big-Data Convergence Center, Gil Medical Center, Gachon University College of MedicineArtificial Intelligence and Big-Data Convergence Center, Gil Medical Center, Gachon University College of MedicineAbstract Background With the prompt administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, highly vaccinated countries have begun to lift their stringent control measures. However, considering the spread of highly transmissible new variants, resuming socio-economic activities may lead to the resurgence of incidence, particularly in nations with a low proportion of individuals who have natural immunity. Here, we aimed to quantitatively assess an optimal COVID-19 exit strategy in the Republic of Korea, where only a small number of cumulative incidences have been recorded as of September 2021, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis. Methods A discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group was used, accounting for the variant-specific transmission dynamics and the currently planned nationwide vaccination. All parameters were calibrated using comprehensive empirical data obtained from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Results Our projection suggests that tapering the level of social distancing countermeasures to the minimum level from November 2021 can efficiently suppress a resurgence of incidence given the currently planned nationwide vaccine roll-out. In addition, considering the spread of the Delta variant, our model suggested that gradual easing of countermeasures for more than 4 months can efficiently withstand the prevalence of severe COVID-19 cases until the end of 2022. Conclusions Our model-based projections provide evidence-based guidance for an exit strategy that allows society to resume normal life while sustaining the suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic in countries where the spread of COVID-19 has been well controlled.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14576-wCOVID-19Exit strategyProjectionsMathematical modellingThe Republic of Korea |
| spellingShingle | Sung-mok Jung Kyungmin Huh Munkhzul Radnaabaatar Jaehun Jung Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea BMC Public Health COVID-19 Exit strategy Projections Mathematical modelling The Republic of Korea |
| title | Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea |
| title_full | Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea |
| title_fullStr | Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea |
| title_full_unstemmed | Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea |
| title_short | Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea |
| title_sort | model informed covid 19 exit strategy with projections of sars cov 2 infections generated by variants in the republic of korea |
| topic | COVID-19 Exit strategy Projections Mathematical modelling The Republic of Korea |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14576-w |
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