Hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a 3 d flash-flood-triggering desert rainstorm
<p>Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards. In 2018, three flash-flood episodes resulted in 46 casualties in the deserts of Israel and Jordan alone. This paper presents the hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a substantial storm (25–27 April 2018) tha...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/917/2021/nhess-21-917-2021.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819139972696899584 |
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| author | Y. Rinat F. Marra F. Marra M. Armon A. Metzger Y. Levi P. Khain E. Vadislavsky M. Rosensaft E. Morin |
| author_facet | Y. Rinat F. Marra F. Marra M. Armon A. Metzger Y. Levi P. Khain E. Vadislavsky M. Rosensaft E. Morin |
| author_sort | Y. Rinat |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards. In 2018, three flash-flood episodes resulted in 46 casualties in the deserts of Israel and Jordan alone. This paper presents the hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a substantial storm (25–27 April 2018) that hit an arid desert basin (Zin, <span class="inline-formula">∼1400 km<sup>2</sup></span>, southern Israel) claiming 12 human lives. This paper aims to (a) spatially assess the severity of the storm, (b) quantify the timescale of the hydrological response, and (c) evaluate the available operational precipitation forecasting. Return periods of the storm's maximal rain intensities were derived locally at 1 <span class="inline-formula">km<sup>2</sup></span> resolution using weather radar data and a novel statistical methodology. A high-resolution grid-based hydrological model was used to study the intra-basin flash-flood magnitudes which were consistent with direct information from witnesses. The model was further used to examine the hydrological response to different forecast scenarios. A small portion of the basin (1 %–20 %) experienced extreme precipitation intensities (75- to 100-year return period), resulting in a local hydrological response of a high magnitude (10- to 50-year return period). Hillslope runoff, initiated minutes after the intense rainfall occurred, reached the streams and resulted in peak discharge within tens of minutes. Available deterministic operational precipitation forecasts poorly predicted the hydrological response in the studied basins (tens to hundreds of square kilometers) mostly due to location inaccuracy. There was no gain from assimilating radar estimates in the numerical weather prediction model. Therefore, we suggest using deterministic forecasts with caution as it might lead to fatal decision making. To cope with such errors, a novel cost-effective methodology is applied by spatially shifting the forecasted precipitation fields. In this way, flash-flood occurrences were captured in most of the subbasins, resulting in few false alarms.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T11:31:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-48f0d6416fa94547ac4e9dda1b2cb101 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T11:31:09Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-48f0d6416fa94547ac4e9dda1b2cb1012022-12-21T18:27:35ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812021-03-012191793910.5194/nhess-21-917-2021Hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a 3 d flash-flood-triggering desert rainstormY. Rinat0F. Marra1F. Marra2M. Armon3A. Metzger4Y. Levi5P. Khain6E. Vadislavsky7M. Rosensaft8E. Morin9Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, IsraelInstitute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, IsraelInstitute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, ItalyInstitute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, IsraelInstitute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, IsraelIsrael Meteorological Service, Beit Dagan, IsraelIsrael Meteorological Service, Beit Dagan, IsraelIsrael Meteorological Service, Beit Dagan, IsraelGeological Survey of Israel, Jerusalem, IsraelInstitute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel<p>Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards. In 2018, three flash-flood episodes resulted in 46 casualties in the deserts of Israel and Jordan alone. This paper presents the hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a substantial storm (25–27 April 2018) that hit an arid desert basin (Zin, <span class="inline-formula">∼1400 km<sup>2</sup></span>, southern Israel) claiming 12 human lives. This paper aims to (a) spatially assess the severity of the storm, (b) quantify the timescale of the hydrological response, and (c) evaluate the available operational precipitation forecasting. Return periods of the storm's maximal rain intensities were derived locally at 1 <span class="inline-formula">km<sup>2</sup></span> resolution using weather radar data and a novel statistical methodology. A high-resolution grid-based hydrological model was used to study the intra-basin flash-flood magnitudes which were consistent with direct information from witnesses. The model was further used to examine the hydrological response to different forecast scenarios. A small portion of the basin (1 %–20 %) experienced extreme precipitation intensities (75- to 100-year return period), resulting in a local hydrological response of a high magnitude (10- to 50-year return period). Hillslope runoff, initiated minutes after the intense rainfall occurred, reached the streams and resulted in peak discharge within tens of minutes. Available deterministic operational precipitation forecasts poorly predicted the hydrological response in the studied basins (tens to hundreds of square kilometers) mostly due to location inaccuracy. There was no gain from assimilating radar estimates in the numerical weather prediction model. Therefore, we suggest using deterministic forecasts with caution as it might lead to fatal decision making. To cope with such errors, a novel cost-effective methodology is applied by spatially shifting the forecasted precipitation fields. In this way, flash-flood occurrences were captured in most of the subbasins, resulting in few false alarms.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/917/2021/nhess-21-917-2021.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Y. Rinat F. Marra F. Marra M. Armon A. Metzger Y. Levi P. Khain E. Vadislavsky M. Rosensaft E. Morin Hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a 3 d flash-flood-triggering desert rainstorm Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a 3 d flash-flood-triggering desert rainstorm |
| title_full | Hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a 3 d flash-flood-triggering desert rainstorm |
| title_fullStr | Hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a 3 d flash-flood-triggering desert rainstorm |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a 3 d flash-flood-triggering desert rainstorm |
| title_short | Hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a 3 d flash-flood-triggering desert rainstorm |
| title_sort | hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a 3 thinsp d flash flood triggering desert rainstorm |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/917/2021/nhess-21-917-2021.pdf |
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