Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts
Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections have been associated with substantial presymptomatic transmission, which occurs when the generation interval—the time between infection of an individual with a pathogen and transmission of the pathogen to another individual—is shorter th...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2022-12-01
|
| Series: | Epidemics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436522000950 |
| _version_ | 1828092177000955904 |
|---|---|
| author | Natalie M. Linton Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov Hiroshi Nishiura |
| author_facet | Natalie M. Linton Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov Hiroshi Nishiura |
| author_sort | Natalie M. Linton |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections have been associated with substantial presymptomatic transmission, which occurs when the generation interval—the time between infection of an individual with a pathogen and transmission of the pathogen to another individual—is shorter than the incubation period—the time between infection and symptom onset. We collected a dataset of 257 SARS-CoV-2 transmission pairs in Japan during 2020 and jointly estimated the mean incubation period of infectors (4.8 days, 95 % CrI: 4.4–5.1 days), mean generation interval to when they infect others (4.3 days, 95 % credible interval [CrI]: 4.0–4.7 days), and the correlation (Kendall’s tau: 0.5, 95 % CrI: 0.4–0.6) between these two epidemiological parameters. Our finding of a positive correlation and mean generation interval shorter than the mean infector incubation period indicates ample infectiousness before symptom onset and suggests that reliance on isolation of symptomatic COVID-19 cases as a focal point of control efforts is insufficient to address the challenges posed by SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T06:25:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4918eb8f84d6466780273d60d94353b6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1755-4365 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T06:25:00Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemics |
| spelling | doaj.art-4918eb8f84d6466780273d60d94353b62022-12-22T04:40:25ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43652022-12-0141100655Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control effortsNatalie M. Linton0Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov1Hiroshi Nishiura2Kyoto University School of Public Health, Yoshidakonoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto city, 606-8501, Japan; Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, JapanCollege of Public Health, National Taiwan University, 17 Xu-Zhou Road, Taipei 10055, TaiwanKyoto University School of Public Health, Yoshidakonoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto city, 606-8501, Japan; Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan; Corresponding author at: Kyoto University School of Public Health, Yoshidakonoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto city, 606-8501, Japan.Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections have been associated with substantial presymptomatic transmission, which occurs when the generation interval—the time between infection of an individual with a pathogen and transmission of the pathogen to another individual—is shorter than the incubation period—the time between infection and symptom onset. We collected a dataset of 257 SARS-CoV-2 transmission pairs in Japan during 2020 and jointly estimated the mean incubation period of infectors (4.8 days, 95 % CrI: 4.4–5.1 days), mean generation interval to when they infect others (4.3 days, 95 % credible interval [CrI]: 4.0–4.7 days), and the correlation (Kendall’s tau: 0.5, 95 % CrI: 0.4–0.6) between these two epidemiological parameters. Our finding of a positive correlation and mean generation interval shorter than the mean infector incubation period indicates ample infectiousness before symptom onset and suggests that reliance on isolation of symptomatic COVID-19 cases as a focal point of control efforts is insufficient to address the challenges posed by SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436522000950Generation intervalIncubation periodSARS-CoV-2JapanMathematical modelingCase isolation |
| spellingShingle | Natalie M. Linton Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov Hiroshi Nishiura Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts Epidemics Generation interval Incubation period SARS-CoV-2 Japan Mathematical modeling Case isolation |
| title | Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts |
| title_full | Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts |
| title_fullStr | Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts |
| title_short | Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts |
| title_sort | correlation between times to sars cov 2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts |
| topic | Generation interval Incubation period SARS-CoV-2 Japan Mathematical modeling Case isolation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436522000950 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nataliemlinton correlationbetweentimestosarscov2symptomonsetandsecondarytransmissionunderminesepidemiccontrolefforts AT andreirakhmetzhanov correlationbetweentimestosarscov2symptomonsetandsecondarytransmissionunderminesepidemiccontrolefforts AT hiroshinishiura correlationbetweentimestosarscov2symptomonsetandsecondarytransmissionunderminesepidemiccontrolefforts |