‘Will the Paris Agreement protect us from hydro-meteorological extremes?’
Multi-hazard assessment is needed to understand compound risk. Yet, modelling of multiple climate hazards has been limitedly applied at the global scale to date. Here we provide a first comprehensive assessment of global population exposure to hydro-meteorological extremes—floods, drought and heatwa...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba869 |
| _version_ | 1797747786678009856 |
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| author | F Farinosi A Dosio E Calliari R Seliger L Alfieri G Naumann |
| author_facet | F Farinosi A Dosio E Calliari R Seliger L Alfieri G Naumann |
| author_sort | F Farinosi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Multi-hazard assessment is needed to understand compound risk. Yet, modelling of multiple climate hazards has been limitedly applied at the global scale to date. Here we provide a first comprehensive assessment of global population exposure to hydro-meteorological extremes—floods, drought and heatwaves—under different temperature increase targets. This study shows how limiting temperature increase to 1.5 and 2 °C, as for the goals of the Paris Agreement, could substantially decrease the share of global population exposed compared to a 3 °C scenario. In a 2 °C world, population exposure would drop by more than 50%, in Africa, Asia and the Americas, and by about 40% in Europe and Oceania. A 1.5 °C stabilization would further reduce exposure of about an additional 10% to 30% across the globe. As the Parties of the Paris Agreement are expected to communicate new or updated nationally determined contributions by 2020, our results powerfully indicate the benefits of ratcheting up both mitigation and adaptation ambition. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:56:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4919e21622ad47b9b90efb59a15a99fa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:56:35Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-4919e21622ad47b9b90efb59a15a99fa2023-08-09T14:53:43ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-01151010403710.1088/1748-9326/aba869‘Will the Paris Agreement protect us from hydro-meteorological extremes?’F Farinosi0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4774-4854A Dosio1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6365-9473E Calliari2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8075-558XR Seliger3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0784-2556L Alfieri4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3616-386XG Naumann5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8767-5099European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) , Ispra, ItalyEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) , Ispra, ItalyUniversity College London , London, United Kingdom; Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change , Venice, ItalyEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) , Ispra, Italy; Piksel S.r.l. , Milan, ItalyEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) , Ispra, Italy; CIMA Research Foundation , Savona, ItalyEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) , Ispra, ItalyMulti-hazard assessment is needed to understand compound risk. Yet, modelling of multiple climate hazards has been limitedly applied at the global scale to date. Here we provide a first comprehensive assessment of global population exposure to hydro-meteorological extremes—floods, drought and heatwaves—under different temperature increase targets. This study shows how limiting temperature increase to 1.5 and 2 °C, as for the goals of the Paris Agreement, could substantially decrease the share of global population exposed compared to a 3 °C scenario. In a 2 °C world, population exposure would drop by more than 50%, in Africa, Asia and the Americas, and by about 40% in Europe and Oceania. A 1.5 °C stabilization would further reduce exposure of about an additional 10% to 30% across the globe. As the Parties of the Paris Agreement are expected to communicate new or updated nationally determined contributions by 2020, our results powerfully indicate the benefits of ratcheting up both mitigation and adaptation ambition.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba869Paris Agreementmulti-hazard exposureClimate extremesglobal warming targets |
| spellingShingle | F Farinosi A Dosio E Calliari R Seliger L Alfieri G Naumann ‘Will the Paris Agreement protect us from hydro-meteorological extremes?’ Environmental Research Letters Paris Agreement multi-hazard exposure Climate extremes global warming targets |
| title | ‘Will the Paris Agreement protect us from hydro-meteorological extremes?’ |
| title_full | ‘Will the Paris Agreement protect us from hydro-meteorological extremes?’ |
| title_fullStr | ‘Will the Paris Agreement protect us from hydro-meteorological extremes?’ |
| title_full_unstemmed | ‘Will the Paris Agreement protect us from hydro-meteorological extremes?’ |
| title_short | ‘Will the Paris Agreement protect us from hydro-meteorological extremes?’ |
| title_sort | will the paris agreement protect us from hydro meteorological extremes |
| topic | Paris Agreement multi-hazard exposure Climate extremes global warming targets |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba869 |
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