A statistical framework for the adaptive management of epidemiological interventions.
BACKGROUND: Epidemiological interventions aim to control the spread of infectious disease through various mechanisms, each carrying a different associated cost. METHODOLOGY: We describe a flexible statistical framework for generating optimal epidemiological interventions that are designed to minimiz...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2009-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2688756?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1818328446231642112 |
|---|---|
| author | Daniel Merl Leah R Johnson Robert B Gramacy Marc Mangel |
| author_facet | Daniel Merl Leah R Johnson Robert B Gramacy Marc Mangel |
| author_sort | Daniel Merl |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BACKGROUND: Epidemiological interventions aim to control the spread of infectious disease through various mechanisms, each carrying a different associated cost. METHODOLOGY: We describe a flexible statistical framework for generating optimal epidemiological interventions that are designed to minimize the total expected cost of an emerging epidemic while simultaneously propagating uncertainty regarding the underlying disease model parameters through to the decision process. The strategies produced through this framework are adaptive: vaccination schedules are iteratively adjusted to reflect the anticipated trajectory of the epidemic given the current population state and updated parameter estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Using simulation studies based on a classic influenza outbreak, we demonstrate the advantages of adaptive interventions over non-adaptive ones, in terms of cost and resource efficiency, and robustness to model misspecification. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T12:32:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4934ac7ba932415aa8bd320e79ee92ad |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T12:32:17Z |
| publishDate | 2009-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-4934ac7ba932415aa8bd320e79ee92ad2022-12-21T23:45:59ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032009-01-0146e580710.1371/journal.pone.0005807A statistical framework for the adaptive management of epidemiological interventions.Daniel MerlLeah R JohnsonRobert B GramacyMarc MangelBACKGROUND: Epidemiological interventions aim to control the spread of infectious disease through various mechanisms, each carrying a different associated cost. METHODOLOGY: We describe a flexible statistical framework for generating optimal epidemiological interventions that are designed to minimize the total expected cost of an emerging epidemic while simultaneously propagating uncertainty regarding the underlying disease model parameters through to the decision process. The strategies produced through this framework are adaptive: vaccination schedules are iteratively adjusted to reflect the anticipated trajectory of the epidemic given the current population state and updated parameter estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Using simulation studies based on a classic influenza outbreak, we demonstrate the advantages of adaptive interventions over non-adaptive ones, in terms of cost and resource efficiency, and robustness to model misspecification.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2688756?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Daniel Merl Leah R Johnson Robert B Gramacy Marc Mangel A statistical framework for the adaptive management of epidemiological interventions. PLoS ONE |
| title | A statistical framework for the adaptive management of epidemiological interventions. |
| title_full | A statistical framework for the adaptive management of epidemiological interventions. |
| title_fullStr | A statistical framework for the adaptive management of epidemiological interventions. |
| title_full_unstemmed | A statistical framework for the adaptive management of epidemiological interventions. |
| title_short | A statistical framework for the adaptive management of epidemiological interventions. |
| title_sort | statistical framework for the adaptive management of epidemiological interventions |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2688756?pdf=render |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT danielmerl astatisticalframeworkfortheadaptivemanagementofepidemiologicalinterventions AT leahrjohnson astatisticalframeworkfortheadaptivemanagementofepidemiologicalinterventions AT robertbgramacy astatisticalframeworkfortheadaptivemanagementofepidemiologicalinterventions AT marcmangel astatisticalframeworkfortheadaptivemanagementofepidemiologicalinterventions AT danielmerl statisticalframeworkfortheadaptivemanagementofepidemiologicalinterventions AT leahrjohnson statisticalframeworkfortheadaptivemanagementofepidemiologicalinterventions AT robertbgramacy statisticalframeworkfortheadaptivemanagementofepidemiologicalinterventions AT marcmangel statisticalframeworkfortheadaptivemanagementofepidemiologicalinterventions |