Application assessment of precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI) from ECMWF in Zhejiang Province
The precipitation Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) derived from ECMWF global ensemble prediction system (EPS) from June 2016 to May 2017 is applied to evaluate the statistical relationship between the EFI and the severe precipitation as well as the climatic precipitation percentile in Zhejiang. Results...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
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Editorial Office of Torrential Rain and Disasters
2021-02-01
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| Series: | 暴雨灾害 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.byzh.org.cn/cn/article/doi/10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2021.01.009 |
| _version_ | 1797786488921915392 |
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| author | Liang FU Yujing ZHANG Ling LUO Xiaofen LOU Hao QIAN Wenqiang SHEN |
| author_facet | Liang FU Yujing ZHANG Ling LUO Xiaofen LOU Hao QIAN Wenqiang SHEN |
| author_sort | Liang FU |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The precipitation Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) derived from ECMWF global ensemble prediction system (EPS) from June 2016 to May 2017 is applied to evaluate the statistical relationship between the EFI and the severe precipitation as well as the climatic precipitation percentile in Zhejiang. Results show that there is an obvious positive correlation between the EFI and the observed precipitation in Zhejiang. With the increase of the EFI threshold, the frequency of rainstorm increases at first and then decreases, and the probability of rainstorm increases with the increase of EFI threshold. With the increase of the EFI, the frequency of rainstorm increases at first and then decreases, while the probability of rainstorm increases with the increase of the EFI. Considering the TS and BS scores comprehensively, the threshold of the EFI decreases with the increase of forecast time length and increase with the increase of precipitation. There is a significant positive correlation between the EFI value and the climatic percentile of precipitation. The greater the EFI is, the higher the percentile is. Thus, the precipitation amount can be estimated according to the corresponding climatic percentile of the observed precipitation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:09:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4954c0d5af3246eb832e6452d012e86f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2097-2164 |
| language | zho |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:09:37Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Torrential Rain and Disasters |
| record_format | Article |
| series | 暴雨灾害 |
| spelling | doaj.art-4954c0d5af3246eb832e6452d012e86f2023-07-06T04:31:34ZzhoEditorial Office of Torrential Rain and Disasters暴雨灾害2097-21642021-02-01401697710.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2021.01.0092722Application assessment of precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI) from ECMWF in Zhejiang ProvinceLiang FU0Yujing ZHANG1Ling LUO2Xiaofen LOU3Hao QIAN4Wenqiang SHEN5Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou 310017Hangzhou Meteorological Administration, Hangzhou 310051Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou 310017Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou 310017Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou 310017Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou 310017The precipitation Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) derived from ECMWF global ensemble prediction system (EPS) from June 2016 to May 2017 is applied to evaluate the statistical relationship between the EFI and the severe precipitation as well as the climatic precipitation percentile in Zhejiang. Results show that there is an obvious positive correlation between the EFI and the observed precipitation in Zhejiang. With the increase of the EFI threshold, the frequency of rainstorm increases at first and then decreases, and the probability of rainstorm increases with the increase of EFI threshold. With the increase of the EFI, the frequency of rainstorm increases at first and then decreases, while the probability of rainstorm increases with the increase of the EFI. Considering the TS and BS scores comprehensively, the threshold of the EFI decreases with the increase of forecast time length and increase with the increase of precipitation. There is a significant positive correlation between the EFI value and the climatic percentile of precipitation. The greater the EFI is, the higher the percentile is. Thus, the precipitation amount can be estimated according to the corresponding climatic percentile of the observed precipitation.http://www.byzh.org.cn/cn/article/doi/10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2021.01.009ensemble forecastextreme forecast indexrainstormclimatic percentile |
| spellingShingle | Liang FU Yujing ZHANG Ling LUO Xiaofen LOU Hao QIAN Wenqiang SHEN Application assessment of precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI) from ECMWF in Zhejiang Province 暴雨灾害 ensemble forecast extreme forecast index rainstorm climatic percentile |
| title | Application assessment of precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI) from ECMWF in Zhejiang Province |
| title_full | Application assessment of precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI) from ECMWF in Zhejiang Province |
| title_fullStr | Application assessment of precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI) from ECMWF in Zhejiang Province |
| title_full_unstemmed | Application assessment of precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI) from ECMWF in Zhejiang Province |
| title_short | Application assessment of precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI) from ECMWF in Zhejiang Province |
| title_sort | application assessment of precipitation extreme forecast index efi from ecmwf in zhejiang province |
| topic | ensemble forecast extreme forecast index rainstorm climatic percentile |
| url | http://www.byzh.org.cn/cn/article/doi/10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2021.01.009 |
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