Effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of COVID-19 outbreaks
Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic is complex and is developing in different ways according to the country involved. Methods To identify the key parameters or processes that have the greatest effects on the pandemic and reveal the different progressions of epidemics in different countries, we...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2021-03-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10657-4 |
| _version_ | 1818948994743664640 |
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| author | Xia Wang Qian Li Xiaodan Sun Sha He Fan Xia Pengfei Song Yiming Shao Jianhong Wu Robert A. Cheke Sanyi Tang Yanni Xiao |
| author_facet | Xia Wang Qian Li Xiaodan Sun Sha He Fan Xia Pengfei Song Yiming Shao Jianhong Wu Robert A. Cheke Sanyi Tang Yanni Xiao |
| author_sort | Xia Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic is complex and is developing in different ways according to the country involved. Methods To identify the key parameters or processes that have the greatest effects on the pandemic and reveal the different progressions of epidemics in different countries, we quantified enhanced control measures and the dynamics of the production and provision of medical resources. We then nested these within a COVID-19 epidemic transmission model, which is parameterized by multi-source data. We obtained rate functions related to the intensity of mitigation measures, the effective reproduction numbers and the timings and durations of runs on medical resources, given differing control measures implemented in various countries. Results Increased detection rates may induce runs on medical resources and prolong their durations, depending on resource availability. Nevertheless, improving the detection rate can effectively and rapidly reduce the mortality rate, even after runs on medical resources. Combinations of multiple prevention and control strategies and timely improvement of abilities to supplement medical resources are key to effective control of the COVID-19 epidemic. A 50% reduction in comprehensive control measures would have led to the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases and deaths exceeding 590,000 and 60,000, respectively, by 27 March 2020 in mainland China. Conclusions Multiple data sources and cross validation of a COVID-19 epidemic model, coupled with a medical resource logistic model, revealed the key factors that affect epidemic progressions and their outbreak patterns in different countries. These key factors are the type of emergency medical response to avoid runs on medical resources, especially improved detection rates, the ability to promote public health measures, and the synergistic effects of combinations of multiple prevention and control strategies. The proposed model can assist health authorities to predict when they will be most in need of hospital beds and equipment such as ventilators, personal protection equipment, drugs, and staff. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T08:55:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4967538527624a3ba4ff454986fd11c0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T08:55:39Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-4967538527624a3ba4ff454986fd11c02022-12-21T19:46:01ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582021-03-0121111110.1186/s12889-021-10657-4Effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of COVID-19 outbreaksXia Wang0Qian Li1Xiaodan Sun2Sha He3Fan Xia4Pengfei Song5Yiming Shao6Jianhong Wu7Robert A. Cheke8Sanyi Tang9Yanni Xiao10School of Mathematics and Information Sciences, Shaanxi Normal UniversityDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Xi’an Jiaotong UniversitySchool of Mathematics and Information Sciences, Shaanxi Normal UniversityDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionLaboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York UniversityNatural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich at MedwaySchool of Mathematics and Information Sciences, Shaanxi Normal UniversityDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityAbstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic is complex and is developing in different ways according to the country involved. Methods To identify the key parameters or processes that have the greatest effects on the pandemic and reveal the different progressions of epidemics in different countries, we quantified enhanced control measures and the dynamics of the production and provision of medical resources. We then nested these within a COVID-19 epidemic transmission model, which is parameterized by multi-source data. We obtained rate functions related to the intensity of mitigation measures, the effective reproduction numbers and the timings and durations of runs on medical resources, given differing control measures implemented in various countries. Results Increased detection rates may induce runs on medical resources and prolong their durations, depending on resource availability. Nevertheless, improving the detection rate can effectively and rapidly reduce the mortality rate, even after runs on medical resources. Combinations of multiple prevention and control strategies and timely improvement of abilities to supplement medical resources are key to effective control of the COVID-19 epidemic. A 50% reduction in comprehensive control measures would have led to the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases and deaths exceeding 590,000 and 60,000, respectively, by 27 March 2020 in mainland China. Conclusions Multiple data sources and cross validation of a COVID-19 epidemic model, coupled with a medical resource logistic model, revealed the key factors that affect epidemic progressions and their outbreak patterns in different countries. These key factors are the type of emergency medical response to avoid runs on medical resources, especially improved detection rates, the ability to promote public health measures, and the synergistic effects of combinations of multiple prevention and control strategies. The proposed model can assist health authorities to predict when they will be most in need of hospital beds and equipment such as ventilators, personal protection equipment, drugs, and staff.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10657-4PandemicCOVID-19ModelRuns on medical resourcesInter-country comparisonsPrediction |
| spellingShingle | Xia Wang Qian Li Xiaodan Sun Sha He Fan Xia Pengfei Song Yiming Shao Jianhong Wu Robert A. Cheke Sanyi Tang Yanni Xiao Effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of COVID-19 outbreaks BMC Public Health Pandemic COVID-19 Model Runs on medical resources Inter-country comparisons Prediction |
| title | Effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of COVID-19 outbreaks |
| title_full | Effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of COVID-19 outbreaks |
| title_fullStr | Effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of COVID-19 outbreaks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of COVID-19 outbreaks |
| title_short | Effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of COVID-19 outbreaks |
| title_sort | effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of covid 19 outbreaks |
| topic | Pandemic COVID-19 Model Runs on medical resources Inter-country comparisons Prediction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10657-4 |
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