Numerical simulation of contemporary kinematics at the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and its implications for seismic hazard assessment
<p>The slip rates of active faults in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP) require clarification to understand the lateral expansion of the Tibetan Plateau and assess the seismic hazards in this region. To obtain the continuous slip rates of active faults at the NETP, we constructed a three...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Solid Earth |
| Online Access: | https://se.copernicus.org/articles/13/1371/2022/se-13-1371-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1828340304386719744 |
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| author | L. Li L. Li X. Li F. Yang L. Pan J. Tian |
| author_facet | L. Li L. Li X. Li F. Yang L. Pan J. Tian |
| author_sort | L. Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The slip rates of active faults in the northeastern Tibetan
Plateau (NETP) require clarification to understand the lateral expansion of
the Tibetan Plateau and assess the seismic hazards in this region. To obtain
the continuous slip rates of active faults at the NETP, we constructed a
three-dimensional (3D) numerical geomechanics model that includes a complex
3D fault system. The model also accounts for the physical rock properties,
gravity fields, fault friction coefficients, initial stress, and boundary
conditions. Following this, we present the long-term kinematics of NETP based on the
horizontal and vertical velocities and fault slip rates acquired from the
model. The fault kinematic characteristics indicate that the Laohushan,
middle–southern Liupanshan, and Guguan–Baoji faults, as well as the
junction area of the Maxianshan and Zhuanglanghe faults, are potential
hazard areas for strong earthquakes. However, as these faults are currently
in the stress accumulation stage, they are unlikely to cause a strong
earthquake in the short term. In contrast, it is likely that the
Jinqiangshan–Maomaoshan fault will generate a earthquake with a surface-wave magnitude (<span class="inline-formula"><i>M</i><sub>S</sub></span>) of 7.1–7.3
in the coming decades. In addition, the velocity profiles across the NETP
imply that the plate rotation is the primary deformation mechanism of the
NETP even though the intra-block straining and faulting are non-negligible.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T22:54:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-497d9d7ee8fa411fbe7bb3dc0ad91850 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1869-9510 1869-9529 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T22:54:50Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Solid Earth |
| spelling | doaj.art-497d9d7ee8fa411fbe7bb3dc0ad918502022-12-22T02:26:04ZengCopernicus PublicationsSolid Earth1869-95101869-95292022-08-01131371139110.5194/se-13-1371-2022Numerical simulation of contemporary kinematics at the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and its implications for seismic hazard assessmentL. Li0L. Li1X. Li2F. Yang3L. Pan4J. Tian5School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, ChinaNingxia Institute of Geological Survey, Yinchuan 750021, ChinaDepartment of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, ChinaNingxia Institute of Geological Survey, Yinchuan 750021, ChinaSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, ChinaNingxia Institute of Geological Survey, Yinchuan 750021, China<p>The slip rates of active faults in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP) require clarification to understand the lateral expansion of the Tibetan Plateau and assess the seismic hazards in this region. To obtain the continuous slip rates of active faults at the NETP, we constructed a three-dimensional (3D) numerical geomechanics model that includes a complex 3D fault system. The model also accounts for the physical rock properties, gravity fields, fault friction coefficients, initial stress, and boundary conditions. Following this, we present the long-term kinematics of NETP based on the horizontal and vertical velocities and fault slip rates acquired from the model. The fault kinematic characteristics indicate that the Laohushan, middle–southern Liupanshan, and Guguan–Baoji faults, as well as the junction area of the Maxianshan and Zhuanglanghe faults, are potential hazard areas for strong earthquakes. However, as these faults are currently in the stress accumulation stage, they are unlikely to cause a strong earthquake in the short term. In contrast, it is likely that the Jinqiangshan–Maomaoshan fault will generate a earthquake with a surface-wave magnitude (<span class="inline-formula"><i>M</i><sub>S</sub></span>) of 7.1–7.3 in the coming decades. In addition, the velocity profiles across the NETP imply that the plate rotation is the primary deformation mechanism of the NETP even though the intra-block straining and faulting are non-negligible.</p>https://se.copernicus.org/articles/13/1371/2022/se-13-1371-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | L. Li L. Li X. Li F. Yang L. Pan J. Tian Numerical simulation of contemporary kinematics at the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and its implications for seismic hazard assessment Solid Earth |
| title | Numerical simulation of contemporary kinematics at the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and its implications for seismic hazard assessment |
| title_full | Numerical simulation of contemporary kinematics at the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and its implications for seismic hazard assessment |
| title_fullStr | Numerical simulation of contemporary kinematics at the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and its implications for seismic hazard assessment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Numerical simulation of contemporary kinematics at the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and its implications for seismic hazard assessment |
| title_short | Numerical simulation of contemporary kinematics at the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and its implications for seismic hazard assessment |
| title_sort | numerical simulation of contemporary kinematics at the northeastern tibetan plateau and its implications for seismic hazard assessment |
| url | https://se.copernicus.org/articles/13/1371/2022/se-13-1371-2022.pdf |
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