Prediction analysis of the length of time for changes in the status of positive patients for covid-19 delta and omicron variants using the markov chain model
In this research, a Markov chain model was constructed from the conditions that might be experienced by the people during the Delta or Omicron variant of the COVID-19 pandemic. This condition is divided into 3 states; "0" indicates a healthy condition, "1" indicates the state of...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Indonesian |
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Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Desimal |
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| Online Access: | http://ejournal.radenintan.ac.id/index.php/desimal/article/view/13567 |
| _version_ | 1798033839002484736 |
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| author | Dwi Haryanto Fida Fathiyah Addini |
| author_facet | Dwi Haryanto Fida Fathiyah Addini |
| author_sort | Dwi Haryanto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this research, a Markov chain model was constructed from the conditions that might be experienced by the people during the Delta or Omicron variant of the COVID-19 pandemic. This condition is divided into 3 states; "0" indicates a healthy condition, "1" indicates the state of being infected with COVID-19, and "2" indicates the death state. Furthermore, from the model obtained, a transition probability matrix is made to determine the transition probability value and calculate the average number of steps needed to get to the death state. From the results of the analysis, the probability of transition to a state of death is 1. This shows that a person will surely die from being healthy or positive for COVID-19 within a certain time. During the Delta variant of the COVID-19 pandemic, the average time that a person reaches a death state from a healthy state is 34.02 years. Meanwhile, the average time taken for someone infected with the Delta variant of COVID-19 to death is 33.79 years. During the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 pandemic, the average time that a person reaches a death state from a healthy state is 37.63 years. Meanwhile, the average time taken for someone infected by the Omicron variant of COVID-19 to death is 37.41. This shows that the average age of a person infected with the Delta variant of COVID-19 has decreased by 2.79 months, while the average age of a person infected with the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has decreased by 2.70 months. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T20:35:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-499a8077119247acbfd5e9c609d4794b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2613-9073 2613-9081 |
| language | Indonesian |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T20:35:59Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Desimal |
| spelling | doaj.art-499a8077119247acbfd5e9c609d4794b2022-12-22T04:04:22ZindUniversitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan LampungDesimal2613-90732613-90812022-08-015221122210.24042/djm.v5i2.135674843Prediction analysis of the length of time for changes in the status of positive patients for covid-19 delta and omicron variants using the markov chain modelDwi Haryanto0Fida Fathiyah Addini1Sekolah Tinggi Manajemen Asuransi TrisaktiSekolah Tinggi Manajemen Asuransi TrisaktiIn this research, a Markov chain model was constructed from the conditions that might be experienced by the people during the Delta or Omicron variant of the COVID-19 pandemic. This condition is divided into 3 states; "0" indicates a healthy condition, "1" indicates the state of being infected with COVID-19, and "2" indicates the death state. Furthermore, from the model obtained, a transition probability matrix is made to determine the transition probability value and calculate the average number of steps needed to get to the death state. From the results of the analysis, the probability of transition to a state of death is 1. This shows that a person will surely die from being healthy or positive for COVID-19 within a certain time. During the Delta variant of the COVID-19 pandemic, the average time that a person reaches a death state from a healthy state is 34.02 years. Meanwhile, the average time taken for someone infected with the Delta variant of COVID-19 to death is 33.79 years. During the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 pandemic, the average time that a person reaches a death state from a healthy state is 37.63 years. Meanwhile, the average time taken for someone infected by the Omicron variant of COVID-19 to death is 37.41. This shows that the average age of a person infected with the Delta variant of COVID-19 has decreased by 2.79 months, while the average age of a person infected with the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has decreased by 2.70 months.http://ejournal.radenintan.ac.id/index.php/desimal/article/view/13567covid-19delta variantomicron variantmarkov chaintransition probability |
| spellingShingle | Dwi Haryanto Fida Fathiyah Addini Prediction analysis of the length of time for changes in the status of positive patients for covid-19 delta and omicron variants using the markov chain model Desimal covid-19 delta variant omicron variant markov chain transition probability |
| title | Prediction analysis of the length of time for changes in the status of positive patients for covid-19 delta and omicron variants using the markov chain model |
| title_full | Prediction analysis of the length of time for changes in the status of positive patients for covid-19 delta and omicron variants using the markov chain model |
| title_fullStr | Prediction analysis of the length of time for changes in the status of positive patients for covid-19 delta and omicron variants using the markov chain model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction analysis of the length of time for changes in the status of positive patients for covid-19 delta and omicron variants using the markov chain model |
| title_short | Prediction analysis of the length of time for changes in the status of positive patients for covid-19 delta and omicron variants using the markov chain model |
| title_sort | prediction analysis of the length of time for changes in the status of positive patients for covid 19 delta and omicron variants using the markov chain model |
| topic | covid-19 delta variant omicron variant markov chain transition probability |
| url | http://ejournal.radenintan.ac.id/index.php/desimal/article/view/13567 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dwiharyanto predictionanalysisofthelengthoftimeforchangesinthestatusofpositivepatientsforcovid19deltaandomicronvariantsusingthemarkovchainmodel AT fidafathiyahaddini predictionanalysisofthelengthoftimeforchangesinthestatusofpositivepatientsforcovid19deltaandomicronvariantsusingthemarkovchainmodel |