Environmental and Economic Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Africa
A multidisciplinary study was conducted to investigate the environmental and economic impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Focusing on Egypt, we estimate projected losses in Egypt’s annual water allocation from the Blue Nile under the 3, 7, and 10-year GERD reservoir filling scenari...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/3/312 |
| _version_ | 1797484058198933504 |
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| author | Ahmed Kamara Mohamed Ahmed Arturo Benavides |
| author_facet | Ahmed Kamara Mohamed Ahmed Arturo Benavides |
| author_sort | Ahmed Kamara |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A multidisciplinary study was conducted to investigate the environmental and economic impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Focusing on Egypt, we estimate projected losses in Egypt’s annual water allocation from the Blue Nile under the 3, 7, and 10-year GERD reservoir filling scenarios, which are part of an array of scenarios currently under consideration. We then examine the resultant losses in Egypt’s agricultural land and the corresponding impact on selected macroeconomic variables relative to a baseline (no GERD) scenario. For the 3-year filling period, in particular, we estimate projected losses in Egypt’s annual water allocation to be 51.29 ± 2.62%. This translates into annual losses of agricultural land of 52.75 ± 2.44% relative to the baseline, with a resultant decline in food production of 38.47 ± 2.18% and an overall decline in agricultural sector output by 17.51 ± 0.99%. This contributes to a rise in the national unemployment rate of 11.24 ± 1.77 percentage points above the baseline. Moreover, we estimate projected annual losses in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita to be 8.02 ± 0.45% relative to the baseline, which translates into an annual loss in real GDP of $26.30 ± 2.81 billion and a loss in welfare of 12.83 ± 0.73% annually, relative to the baseline. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T22:57:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-49a67f75ee614af0960fc96972ca9d9f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T22:57:00Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-49a67f75ee614af0960fc96972ca9d9f2023-11-23T18:09:33ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412022-01-0114331210.3390/w14030312Environmental and Economic Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in AfricaAhmed Kamara0Mohamed Ahmed1Arturo Benavides2Department of Decision Sciences and Economics, Texas A&M University—Corpus Christi, 6300 Ocean Drive, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USACenter for Water Supply Studies, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, Texas A&M University—Corpus Christi, 6300 Ocean Drive, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USADepartment of Decision Sciences and Economics, Texas A&M University—Corpus Christi, 6300 Ocean Drive, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USAA multidisciplinary study was conducted to investigate the environmental and economic impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Focusing on Egypt, we estimate projected losses in Egypt’s annual water allocation from the Blue Nile under the 3, 7, and 10-year GERD reservoir filling scenarios, which are part of an array of scenarios currently under consideration. We then examine the resultant losses in Egypt’s agricultural land and the corresponding impact on selected macroeconomic variables relative to a baseline (no GERD) scenario. For the 3-year filling period, in particular, we estimate projected losses in Egypt’s annual water allocation to be 51.29 ± 2.62%. This translates into annual losses of agricultural land of 52.75 ± 2.44% relative to the baseline, with a resultant decline in food production of 38.47 ± 2.18% and an overall decline in agricultural sector output by 17.51 ± 0.99%. This contributes to a rise in the national unemployment rate of 11.24 ± 1.77 percentage points above the baseline. Moreover, we estimate projected annual losses in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita to be 8.02 ± 0.45% relative to the baseline, which translates into an annual loss in real GDP of $26.30 ± 2.81 billion and a loss in welfare of 12.83 ± 0.73% annually, relative to the baseline.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/3/312Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Damenvironmental impacteconomic lossesEgypt |
| spellingShingle | Ahmed Kamara Mohamed Ahmed Arturo Benavides Environmental and Economic Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Africa Water Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam environmental impact economic losses Egypt |
| title | Environmental and Economic Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Africa |
| title_full | Environmental and Economic Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Africa |
| title_fullStr | Environmental and Economic Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Environmental and Economic Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Africa |
| title_short | Environmental and Economic Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Africa |
| title_sort | environmental and economic impacts of the grand ethiopian renaissance dam in africa |
| topic | Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam environmental impact economic losses Egypt |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/3/312 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ahmedkamara environmentalandeconomicimpactsofthegrandethiopianrenaissancedaminafrica AT mohamedahmed environmentalandeconomicimpactsofthegrandethiopianrenaissancedaminafrica AT arturobenavides environmentalandeconomicimpactsofthegrandethiopianrenaissancedaminafrica |