Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach
Climate change is expected to affect the agricultural sector in ways that are often unclear to predict. If in the short- and medium-terms farmers may adapt to climate change by adjusting their agricultural practices, in the long-term, these adjustments may become insufficient, forcing farmers to cha...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Land |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/12/2113 |
| _version_ | 1797380327647215616 |
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| author | Paulo Flores Ribeiro José Lima Santos |
| author_facet | Paulo Flores Ribeiro José Lima Santos |
| author_sort | Paulo Flores Ribeiro |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is expected to affect the agricultural sector in ways that are often unclear to predict. If in the short- and medium-terms farmers may adapt to climate change by adjusting their agricultural practices, in the long-term, these adjustments may become insufficient, forcing farmers to change their farming systems. The extent and direction in which these farming system transitions will occur is still a subject that is underexplored in the literature. We propose a new framework to explore the effect of climate change on the choice of farming system while controlling the effect of other drivers that are also known to influence the farming system choice. Using a spatially explicit farming system choice model developed by a previous study in an extensive agricultural region of southern Portugal, we applied a space-for-time approach to simulate the effect of climate change on the future dynamics of the farming systems in the study area. The results suggest that climate change will force many farmers to change the farming system in a foreseeable future. The extent of the projected changes in farming systems is likely to trigger significant social, economic, and environmental impacts, which should require early attention from policy makers. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T20:35:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-49e4743558814981a44733aa941c19db |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T20:35:43Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj.art-49e4743558814981a44733aa941c19db2023-12-22T14:20:31ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2023-11-011212211310.3390/land12122113Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time ApproachPaulo Flores Ribeiro0José Lima Santos1Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, PortugalForest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, PortugalClimate change is expected to affect the agricultural sector in ways that are often unclear to predict. If in the short- and medium-terms farmers may adapt to climate change by adjusting their agricultural practices, in the long-term, these adjustments may become insufficient, forcing farmers to change their farming systems. The extent and direction in which these farming system transitions will occur is still a subject that is underexplored in the literature. We propose a new framework to explore the effect of climate change on the choice of farming system while controlling the effect of other drivers that are also known to influence the farming system choice. Using a spatially explicit farming system choice model developed by a previous study in an extensive agricultural region of southern Portugal, we applied a space-for-time approach to simulate the effect of climate change on the future dynamics of the farming systems in the study area. The results suggest that climate change will force many farmers to change the farming system in a foreseeable future. The extent of the projected changes in farming systems is likely to trigger significant social, economic, and environmental impacts, which should require early attention from policy makers.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/12/2113climate changefarming systemsspace-for-timechoice modellingclimate scenarios |
| spellingShingle | Paulo Flores Ribeiro José Lima Santos Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach Land climate change farming systems space-for-time choice modelling climate scenarios |
| title | Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach |
| title_full | Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach |
| title_fullStr | Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach |
| title_short | Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach |
| title_sort | exploring the effects of climate change on farming system choice a farm level space for time approach |
| topic | climate change farming systems space-for-time choice modelling climate scenarios |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/12/2113 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT paulofloresribeiro exploringtheeffectsofclimatechangeonfarmingsystemchoiceafarmlevelspacefortimeapproach AT joselimasantos exploringtheeffectsofclimatechangeonfarmingsystemchoiceafarmlevelspacefortimeapproach |