South Pacific Subtropical High from the late Holocene to the end of the 21st century: insights from climate proxies and general circulation models
<p>The South Pacific Subtropical High (SPSH) is a predominant feature of the South American climate. The variability of this high-pressure center induces changes in the intensity of coastal alongshore winds and precipitation, among others, over southwestern South America. In recent decades, st...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2020-01-01
|
| Series: | Climate of the Past |
| Online Access: | https://www.clim-past.net/16/79/2020/cp-16-79-2020.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811344744732688384 |
|---|---|
| author | V. Flores-Aqueveque V. Flores-Aqueveque M. Rojas M. Rojas M. Rojas C. Aguirre C. Aguirre C. Aguirre P. A. Arias C. González |
| author_facet | V. Flores-Aqueveque V. Flores-Aqueveque M. Rojas M. Rojas M. Rojas C. Aguirre C. Aguirre C. Aguirre P. A. Arias C. González |
| author_sort | V. Flores-Aqueveque |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The South Pacific Subtropical High (SPSH) is a
predominant feature of the South American climate. The variability of this
high-pressure center induces changes in the intensity of coastal alongshore
winds and precipitation, among others, over southwestern South America. In
recent decades, strengthening and expansion of the SPSH have been observed
and attributed to the current global warming. These changes have led to an
intensification of the southerly winds along the coast of northern to
central Chile and a decrease in precipitation from central to southern
Chile. Motivated by improving our understanding about the regional impacts
of climate change in this part of the Southern Hemisphere, we analyzed SPSH
changes during the two most extreme climate events of the last millennium,
the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Current Warm Period (CWP: 1970–2000), based
on paleoclimate records and CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations. In order to
assess the level of agreement of general circulation models, we also compare
them with ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the 1979–2009 period as a
complementary analysis. Finally, with the aim of evaluating future SPSH
behavior, we include 21st century projections under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario in
our analyses. Our results indicate that during the relative warm (cold)
period, the SPSH expands (contracts). Together with this change, alongshore
winds intensify (weaken) south (north) of <span class="inline-formula">∼35</span><span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span> S; also, southern westerly winds become stronger
(weaker) and shift southward (northward). Model results generally
underestimate reanalysis data. These changes are in good agreement with
paleoclimate records, which suggest that these variations could be related
to tropical climate dynamics but also to extratropical phenomena. However,
although models adequately represent most of the South American climate
changes, they fail to represent the Intertropical Convergence Zone–Hadley cell system dynamics, emphasizing the importance of improving
tropical system dynamics in simulations for a better understanding of its
effects on South America. Climate model projections indicate that changes
recently observed will continue during the next decades, highlighting the need
to establish effective mitigation and adaptation strategies against their
environmental and socioeconomic impacts.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T19:51:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4a20c02a9b9e4fc2be9038018d218147 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1814-9324 1814-9332 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T19:51:46Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate of the Past |
| spelling | doaj.art-4a20c02a9b9e4fc2be9038018d2181472022-12-22T02:32:29ZengCopernicus PublicationsClimate of the Past1814-93241814-93322020-01-0116799910.5194/cp-16-79-2020South Pacific Subtropical High from the late Holocene to the end of the 21st century: insights from climate proxies and general circulation modelsV. Flores-Aqueveque0V. Flores-Aqueveque1M. Rojas2M. Rojas3M. Rojas4C. Aguirre5C. Aguirre6C. Aguirre7P. A. Arias8C. González9Departamento de Geología, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Plaza Ercilla 803, Santiago, ChileMillennium Nuclei for Paleoclimate, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Santiago, ChileDepartamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, ChileMillennium Nuclei for Paleoclimate, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Santiago, ChileCentro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2, FONDAP 15110009), ChileCentro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2, FONDAP 15110009), ChileEscuela de Ingeniería Civil Oceánica, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Valparaíso, ChileCentro de Observación Marino para estudios de Riesgos del Ambiente Costero (COSTA-R), Valparaíso, ChileGrupo de Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental (GIGA), Escuela Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, ColombiaDepartamento de Geología, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Plaza Ercilla 803, Santiago, Chile<p>The South Pacific Subtropical High (SPSH) is a predominant feature of the South American climate. The variability of this high-pressure center induces changes in the intensity of coastal alongshore winds and precipitation, among others, over southwestern South America. In recent decades, strengthening and expansion of the SPSH have been observed and attributed to the current global warming. These changes have led to an intensification of the southerly winds along the coast of northern to central Chile and a decrease in precipitation from central to southern Chile. Motivated by improving our understanding about the regional impacts of climate change in this part of the Southern Hemisphere, we analyzed SPSH changes during the two most extreme climate events of the last millennium, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Current Warm Period (CWP: 1970–2000), based on paleoclimate records and CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations. In order to assess the level of agreement of general circulation models, we also compare them with ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the 1979–2009 period as a complementary analysis. Finally, with the aim of evaluating future SPSH behavior, we include 21st century projections under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario in our analyses. Our results indicate that during the relative warm (cold) period, the SPSH expands (contracts). Together with this change, alongshore winds intensify (weaken) south (north) of <span class="inline-formula">∼35</span><span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span> S; also, southern westerly winds become stronger (weaker) and shift southward (northward). Model results generally underestimate reanalysis data. These changes are in good agreement with paleoclimate records, which suggest that these variations could be related to tropical climate dynamics but also to extratropical phenomena. However, although models adequately represent most of the South American climate changes, they fail to represent the Intertropical Convergence Zone–Hadley cell system dynamics, emphasizing the importance of improving tropical system dynamics in simulations for a better understanding of its effects on South America. Climate model projections indicate that changes recently observed will continue during the next decades, highlighting the need to establish effective mitigation and adaptation strategies against their environmental and socioeconomic impacts.</p>https://www.clim-past.net/16/79/2020/cp-16-79-2020.pdf |
| spellingShingle | V. Flores-Aqueveque V. Flores-Aqueveque M. Rojas M. Rojas M. Rojas C. Aguirre C. Aguirre C. Aguirre P. A. Arias C. González South Pacific Subtropical High from the late Holocene to the end of the 21st century: insights from climate proxies and general circulation models Climate of the Past |
| title | South Pacific Subtropical High from the late Holocene to the end of the 21st century: insights from climate proxies and general circulation models |
| title_full | South Pacific Subtropical High from the late Holocene to the end of the 21st century: insights from climate proxies and general circulation models |
| title_fullStr | South Pacific Subtropical High from the late Holocene to the end of the 21st century: insights from climate proxies and general circulation models |
| title_full_unstemmed | South Pacific Subtropical High from the late Holocene to the end of the 21st century: insights from climate proxies and general circulation models |
| title_short | South Pacific Subtropical High from the late Holocene to the end of the 21st century: insights from climate proxies and general circulation models |
| title_sort | south pacific subtropical high from the late holocene to the end of the 21st century insights from climate proxies and general circulation models |
| url | https://www.clim-past.net/16/79/2020/cp-16-79-2020.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT vfloresaqueveque southpacificsubtropicalhighfromthelateholocenetotheendofthe21stcenturyinsightsfromclimateproxiesandgeneralcirculationmodels AT vfloresaqueveque southpacificsubtropicalhighfromthelateholocenetotheendofthe21stcenturyinsightsfromclimateproxiesandgeneralcirculationmodels AT mrojas southpacificsubtropicalhighfromthelateholocenetotheendofthe21stcenturyinsightsfromclimateproxiesandgeneralcirculationmodels AT mrojas southpacificsubtropicalhighfromthelateholocenetotheendofthe21stcenturyinsightsfromclimateproxiesandgeneralcirculationmodels AT mrojas southpacificsubtropicalhighfromthelateholocenetotheendofthe21stcenturyinsightsfromclimateproxiesandgeneralcirculationmodels AT caguirre southpacificsubtropicalhighfromthelateholocenetotheendofthe21stcenturyinsightsfromclimateproxiesandgeneralcirculationmodels AT caguirre southpacificsubtropicalhighfromthelateholocenetotheendofthe21stcenturyinsightsfromclimateproxiesandgeneralcirculationmodels AT caguirre southpacificsubtropicalhighfromthelateholocenetotheendofthe21stcenturyinsightsfromclimateproxiesandgeneralcirculationmodels AT paarias southpacificsubtropicalhighfromthelateholocenetotheendofthe21stcenturyinsightsfromclimateproxiesandgeneralcirculationmodels AT cgonzalez southpacificsubtropicalhighfromthelateholocenetotheendofthe21stcenturyinsightsfromclimateproxiesandgeneralcirculationmodels |