OSSOS. XXVII. Population Estimates for Theoretically Stable Centaurs between Uranus and Neptune
We calculate the upper bounds of the population of theoretically stable Centaur orbits between Uranus and Neptune. These small bodies are on low-eccentricity, low-inclination orbits in two specific bands of semimajor axis, centered at ∼24.6 and ∼25.6 au. They exhibit unusually long Gyr-stable lifeti...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | The Planetary Science Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/acd771 |
| _version_ | 1797327140290560000 |
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| author | Rosemary C. Dorsey Michele T. Bannister Samantha M. Lawler Alex H. Parker |
| author_facet | Rosemary C. Dorsey Michele T. Bannister Samantha M. Lawler Alex H. Parker |
| author_sort | Rosemary C. Dorsey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We calculate the upper bounds of the population of theoretically stable Centaur orbits between Uranus and Neptune. These small bodies are on low-eccentricity, low-inclination orbits in two specific bands of semimajor axis, centered at ∼24.6 and ∼25.6 au. They exhibit unusually long Gyr-stable lifetimes in previously published numerical integrations, orders of magnitude longer than that of a typical Centaur. Despite the increased breadth and depth of recent Solar System surveys, no such objects have been found. Using the Outer Solar System Origins Survey simulator to calculate the detection efficiency for these objects in an ensemble of fully characterized surveys, we determine that a population of 72 stable Centaurs with absolute magnitude H _r ≤ 10 (95% confidence upper limit) could remain undetected. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time will be able to detect this entire intrinsic population, due to its complete coverage of the ecliptic plane. If detected, these objects will be interesting dynamically accessible mission targets—especially as comparison of the stable Centaur orbital phase space to the outcomes of several modern planetary migration simulations suggests that these objects could be close to primordial in nature. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T06:34:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4a2a6641bd3842b584eb7bf3d32eb2ca |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2632-3338 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T06:34:11Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Planetary Science Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-4a2a6641bd3842b584eb7bf3d32eb2ca2024-02-03T10:48:05ZengIOP PublishingThe Planetary Science Journal2632-33382023-01-014611010.3847/PSJ/acd771OSSOS. XXVII. Population Estimates for Theoretically Stable Centaurs between Uranus and NeptuneRosemary C. Dorsey0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8910-1021Michele T. Bannister1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3257-4490Samantha M. Lawler2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5368-386XAlex H. Parker3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6722-0994School of Physical and Chemical Sciences—Te Kura Matū, University of Canterbury , Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand ; rosemary.dorsey@pg.canterbury.ac.nzSchool of Physical and Chemical Sciences—Te Kura Matū, University of Canterbury , Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand ; rosemary.dorsey@pg.canterbury.ac.nzCampion College and the Department of Physics, University of Regina , Regina, SK S4S 0A2, CanadaSETI Institute , Mountain View, CA, 94043, USAWe calculate the upper bounds of the population of theoretically stable Centaur orbits between Uranus and Neptune. These small bodies are on low-eccentricity, low-inclination orbits in two specific bands of semimajor axis, centered at ∼24.6 and ∼25.6 au. They exhibit unusually long Gyr-stable lifetimes in previously published numerical integrations, orders of magnitude longer than that of a typical Centaur. Despite the increased breadth and depth of recent Solar System surveys, no such objects have been found. Using the Outer Solar System Origins Survey simulator to calculate the detection efficiency for these objects in an ensemble of fully characterized surveys, we determine that a population of 72 stable Centaurs with absolute magnitude H _r ≤ 10 (95% confidence upper limit) could remain undetected. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time will be able to detect this entire intrinsic population, due to its complete coverage of the ecliptic plane. If detected, these objects will be interesting dynamically accessible mission targets—especially as comparison of the stable Centaur orbital phase space to the outcomes of several modern planetary migration simulations suggests that these objects could be close to primordial in nature.https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/acd771Centaur groupAstrostatisticsSurveysOrbitsTrans-Neptunian objectsPlanetary migration |
| spellingShingle | Rosemary C. Dorsey Michele T. Bannister Samantha M. Lawler Alex H. Parker OSSOS. XXVII. Population Estimates for Theoretically Stable Centaurs between Uranus and Neptune The Planetary Science Journal Centaur group Astrostatistics Surveys Orbits Trans-Neptunian objects Planetary migration |
| title | OSSOS. XXVII. Population Estimates for Theoretically Stable Centaurs between Uranus and Neptune |
| title_full | OSSOS. XXVII. Population Estimates for Theoretically Stable Centaurs between Uranus and Neptune |
| title_fullStr | OSSOS. XXVII. Population Estimates for Theoretically Stable Centaurs between Uranus and Neptune |
| title_full_unstemmed | OSSOS. XXVII. Population Estimates for Theoretically Stable Centaurs between Uranus and Neptune |
| title_short | OSSOS. XXVII. Population Estimates for Theoretically Stable Centaurs between Uranus and Neptune |
| title_sort | ossos xxvii population estimates for theoretically stable centaurs between uranus and neptune |
| topic | Centaur group Astrostatistics Surveys Orbits Trans-Neptunian objects Planetary migration |
| url | https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/acd771 |
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