Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China
The Northeast Farming Region (NFR) is a major maize cropping region in China, which accounts for about 30% of national maize production. Although the regional maize production has an increasing trend in the last decades, it has greater inter-annual fluctuation. The fluctuation is caused by the incre...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2020-04-01
|
| Series: | Climate Services |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880720300029 |
| _version_ | 1818085679432728576 |
|---|---|
| author | Zhan Tian Hanqing Xu Laixiang Sun Dongli Fan Günther Fischer Honglin Zhong Peiqun Zhang Edward Pope Chris Kent Wei Wu |
| author_facet | Zhan Tian Hanqing Xu Laixiang Sun Dongli Fan Günther Fischer Honglin Zhong Peiqun Zhang Edward Pope Chris Kent Wei Wu |
| author_sort | Zhan Tian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Northeast Farming Region (NFR) is a major maize cropping region in China, which accounts for about 30% of national maize production. Although the regional maize production has an increasing trend in the last decades, it has greater inter-annual fluctuation. The fluctuation is caused by the increased variations of the local temperature and precipitation given the dominance of rainfed maize in the region. To secure high and stable level of maize production in the NFR under the warmer and drier future climate conditions, we employed a cross-scale model-coupling approach to identify the suitable maize cultivars and planting adaptation measures. Our simulation results show that, with proper adaptations of maize cultivars and adjustments of planting/harvest dates, both maize planting area and yield per unit of land will increase in most regions of NFR. This finding indicates that proactive adaptation can help local farmers to reap the benefits of increasing heat resource brought in by global warming, thus avoiding maize production losses as reported in other studies. This research can potentially contribute to the development of agricultural climate services to support climate-smart decisions for agricultural adaptations at the plot, farm and regional scales, in terms of planning the planting structure of multiple crops, breeding suitable maize varieties, and optimizing planting and field management schedules. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T20:13:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4a2e6fc205ee451793b40d5e3355228d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T20:13:37Z |
| publishDate | 2020-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj.art-4a2e6fc205ee451793b40d5e3355228d2022-12-22T01:35:15ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072020-04-0118100150Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of ChinaZhan Tian0Hanqing Xu1Laixiang Sun2Dongli Fan3Günther Fischer4Honglin Zhong5Peiqun Zhang6Edward Pope7Chris Kent8Wei Wu9School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, ChinaDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg A-2361, Austria; Corresponding authors at: Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.Shanghai Institute of Technology, Shanghai 201418, China; Corresponding authors at: Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg A-2361, AustriaDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USANational Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, ChinaMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKShanghai Climate Center, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai 200030, ChinaThe Northeast Farming Region (NFR) is a major maize cropping region in China, which accounts for about 30% of national maize production. Although the regional maize production has an increasing trend in the last decades, it has greater inter-annual fluctuation. The fluctuation is caused by the increased variations of the local temperature and precipitation given the dominance of rainfed maize in the region. To secure high and stable level of maize production in the NFR under the warmer and drier future climate conditions, we employed a cross-scale model-coupling approach to identify the suitable maize cultivars and planting adaptation measures. Our simulation results show that, with proper adaptations of maize cultivars and adjustments of planting/harvest dates, both maize planting area and yield per unit of land will increase in most regions of NFR. This finding indicates that proactive adaptation can help local farmers to reap the benefits of increasing heat resource brought in by global warming, thus avoiding maize production losses as reported in other studies. This research can potentially contribute to the development of agricultural climate services to support climate-smart decisions for agricultural adaptations at the plot, farm and regional scales, in terms of planning the planting structure of multiple crops, breeding suitable maize varieties, and optimizing planting and field management schedules.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880720300029Agriculture climate serviceCross-scale model couplingClimate changeMaize productionFood securityChina |
| spellingShingle | Zhan Tian Hanqing Xu Laixiang Sun Dongli Fan Günther Fischer Honglin Zhong Peiqun Zhang Edward Pope Chris Kent Wei Wu Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China Climate Services Agriculture climate service Cross-scale model coupling Climate change Maize production Food security China |
| title | Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China |
| title_full | Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China |
| title_fullStr | Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China |
| title_short | Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China |
| title_sort | using a cross scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios an application to the northeast farming region of china |
| topic | Agriculture climate service Cross-scale model coupling Climate change Maize production Food security China |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880720300029 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhantian usingacrossscalesimulationtooltoassessfuturemaizeproductionundermultipleclimatechangescenariosanapplicationtothenortheastfarmingregionofchina AT hanqingxu usingacrossscalesimulationtooltoassessfuturemaizeproductionundermultipleclimatechangescenariosanapplicationtothenortheastfarmingregionofchina AT laixiangsun usingacrossscalesimulationtooltoassessfuturemaizeproductionundermultipleclimatechangescenariosanapplicationtothenortheastfarmingregionofchina AT donglifan usingacrossscalesimulationtooltoassessfuturemaizeproductionundermultipleclimatechangescenariosanapplicationtothenortheastfarmingregionofchina AT guntherfischer usingacrossscalesimulationtooltoassessfuturemaizeproductionundermultipleclimatechangescenariosanapplicationtothenortheastfarmingregionofchina AT honglinzhong usingacrossscalesimulationtooltoassessfuturemaizeproductionundermultipleclimatechangescenariosanapplicationtothenortheastfarmingregionofchina AT peiqunzhang usingacrossscalesimulationtooltoassessfuturemaizeproductionundermultipleclimatechangescenariosanapplicationtothenortheastfarmingregionofchina AT edwardpope usingacrossscalesimulationtooltoassessfuturemaizeproductionundermultipleclimatechangescenariosanapplicationtothenortheastfarmingregionofchina AT chriskent usingacrossscalesimulationtooltoassessfuturemaizeproductionundermultipleclimatechangescenariosanapplicationtothenortheastfarmingregionofchina AT weiwu usingacrossscalesimulationtooltoassessfuturemaizeproductionundermultipleclimatechangescenariosanapplicationtothenortheastfarmingregionofchina |