Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Change from 2000 to 2040: A Case Study of the Nanchang Urban Agglomeration
Land use/land cover change (LUCC) constitutes a significant contributor to variations in the storage of carbon within ecosystems and holds substantial significance within the context of the carbon cycling process. This study analyzed land use data from the Nanchang urban agglomeration in 2000 and 20...
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MDPI AG
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/19/4645 |
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| author | Yuheng Fu Min Huang Daohong Gong Hui Lin Yewen Fan Wenying Du |
| author_facet | Yuheng Fu Min Huang Daohong Gong Hui Lin Yewen Fan Wenying Du |
| author_sort | Yuheng Fu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Land use/land cover change (LUCC) constitutes a significant contributor to variations in the storage of carbon within ecosystems and holds substantial significance within the context of the carbon cycling process. This study analyzed land use data from the Nanchang urban agglomeration in 2000 and 2020 to investigate changes in land use and carbon storage using the PLUS model and GIS. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the Nanchang urban agglomeration experienced reductions in the extents of croplands, woodlands, grasslands, and unused lands. The predominant trend in land transformation involved the conversion of cropland into built-up land. (2) Between 2000 and 2020, there was a declining trajectory observed in carbon storage for the Nanchang urban agglomeration, with an overall decrease of 1.13 × 10<sup>7</sup> t. The space is characterized by a high-altitude perimeter and a low-altitude center. Urbanization’s encroachment on cropland is the main reason for declining carbon storage. (3) The predictive outcomes reveal that, in 2040, carbon storage in the Nanchang urban agglomeration will be reduced by 1.00 × 10<sup>7</sup> t under the natural development scenario, and reduced by 3.90 × 10<sup>6</sup> t and increased by 2.29 × 10<sup>5</sup> t, respectively, under the cropland protection and ecological protection scenarios. The risk of carbon loss is significantly reduced by ecological protection policy interventions. Our analysis of the land use patterns and carbon storage distribution in the Nanchang urban agglomeration over the past 20 years and our exploration of the land use change trend over the next 20 years under the conservation policy provide a reference basis for increasing the carbon sink in the core area of the ecological city cluster of Poyang Lake and realizing the sustainable development of the city. |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T21:36:41Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
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| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj.art-4a6f23d86cb243389f81ebc70f6b98602023-11-19T14:57:59ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922023-09-011519464510.3390/rs15194645Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Change from 2000 to 2040: A Case Study of the Nanchang Urban AgglomerationYuheng Fu0Min Huang1Daohong Gong2Hui Lin3Yewen Fan4Wenying Du5School of Geography and Environment (School of BeiDou Industry)/Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research (Ministry of Education), Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, ChinaSchool of Geography and Environment (School of BeiDou Industry)/Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research (Ministry of Education), Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, ChinaSchool of Geography and Environment (School of BeiDou Industry)/Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research (Ministry of Education), Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, ChinaSchool of Geography and Environment (School of BeiDou Industry)/Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research (Ministry of Education), Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, ChinaNational Engineering Research Center for Geographic Information System, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaLand use/land cover change (LUCC) constitutes a significant contributor to variations in the storage of carbon within ecosystems and holds substantial significance within the context of the carbon cycling process. This study analyzed land use data from the Nanchang urban agglomeration in 2000 and 2020 to investigate changes in land use and carbon storage using the PLUS model and GIS. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the Nanchang urban agglomeration experienced reductions in the extents of croplands, woodlands, grasslands, and unused lands. The predominant trend in land transformation involved the conversion of cropland into built-up land. (2) Between 2000 and 2020, there was a declining trajectory observed in carbon storage for the Nanchang urban agglomeration, with an overall decrease of 1.13 × 10<sup>7</sup> t. The space is characterized by a high-altitude perimeter and a low-altitude center. Urbanization’s encroachment on cropland is the main reason for declining carbon storage. (3) The predictive outcomes reveal that, in 2040, carbon storage in the Nanchang urban agglomeration will be reduced by 1.00 × 10<sup>7</sup> t under the natural development scenario, and reduced by 3.90 × 10<sup>6</sup> t and increased by 2.29 × 10<sup>5</sup> t, respectively, under the cropland protection and ecological protection scenarios. The risk of carbon loss is significantly reduced by ecological protection policy interventions. Our analysis of the land use patterns and carbon storage distribution in the Nanchang urban agglomeration over the past 20 years and our exploration of the land use change trend over the next 20 years under the conservation policy provide a reference basis for increasing the carbon sink in the core area of the ecological city cluster of Poyang Lake and realizing the sustainable development of the city.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/19/4645carbon storageInVEST modelland use/land cover changeNanchang urban agglomerationPLUS model |
| spellingShingle | Yuheng Fu Min Huang Daohong Gong Hui Lin Yewen Fan Wenying Du Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Change from 2000 to 2040: A Case Study of the Nanchang Urban Agglomeration Remote Sensing carbon storage InVEST model land use/land cover change Nanchang urban agglomeration PLUS model |
| title | Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Change from 2000 to 2040: A Case Study of the Nanchang Urban Agglomeration |
| title_full | Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Change from 2000 to 2040: A Case Study of the Nanchang Urban Agglomeration |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Change from 2000 to 2040: A Case Study of the Nanchang Urban Agglomeration |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Change from 2000 to 2040: A Case Study of the Nanchang Urban Agglomeration |
| title_short | Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Change from 2000 to 2040: A Case Study of the Nanchang Urban Agglomeration |
| title_sort | dynamic simulation and prediction of carbon storage based on land use land cover change from 2000 to 2040 a case study of the nanchang urban agglomeration |
| topic | carbon storage InVEST model land use/land cover change Nanchang urban agglomeration PLUS model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/19/4645 |
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