Fall vortex ozone as a predictor of springtime total ozone at high northern latitudes
Understanding the impact of atmospheric dynamical variability on observed changes in stratospheric O<sub>3</sub> is a key to understanding how O<sub>3</sub> will change with future climate dynamics and trace gas abundances. In this paper we examine the linkage between interan...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2005-01-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/5/1655/2005/acp-5-1655-2005.pdf |
| Summary: | Understanding the impact of atmospheric dynamical variability on observed changes in stratospheric O<sub>3</sub> is a key to understanding how O<sub>3</sub> will change with future climate dynamics and trace gas abundances. In this paper we examine the linkage between interannual variability in total column O<sub>3</sub> at northern high latitudes in March and lower-to-mid stratospheric vortex O<sub>3</sub> in the prior November. We find that these two quantities are significantly correlated in the years available from TOMS, SBUV, and POAM data (1978-2004). Additionally, we find that the increase in March O<sub>3</sub> variability from the 1980s to years post-1990 is also seen in the November vortex O<sub>3</sub>, i.e., interannual variability in both quantities is much larger in the later years. The cause of this correlation is not clear, however. Interannual variations in March total O<sub>3</sub> are known to correspond closely with variations in winter stratospheric wave driving consistent with the effects of varying residual circulation, temperature, and chemical loss. Variation in November vortex O<sub>3</sub> may also depend on dynamical wave activity, but the dynamics in fall are less variable than in winter and spring. We do not find significant correlations of dynamic indicators for November such as temperature, heat flux, or polar average total O<sub>3</sub> with the November vortex O<sub>3</sub>, nor with dynamical indicators later in winter and spring that might lead to a connection to March. We discuss several potential hypotheses for the observed correlation but do not find strong evidence for any considered mechanism. We present the observations as a phenomenon whose understanding may improve our ability to predict the dependence of O<sub>3</sub> on changing dynamics and chemistry. |
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| ISSN: | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |