The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections
Scientists agree that the climate is changing due to human activities, but there is less agreement about the specific consequences and their timeline. Disagreement among climate projections is attributable to the complexity of climate models that differ in their structure, parameters, initial condit...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2018-03-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Psychology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00403/full |
| _version_ | 1818177986375974912 |
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| author | Daniel M. Benjamin David V. Budescu |
| author_facet | Daniel M. Benjamin David V. Budescu |
| author_sort | Daniel M. Benjamin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Scientists agree that the climate is changing due to human activities, but there is less agreement about the specific consequences and their timeline. Disagreement among climate projections is attributable to the complexity of climate models that differ in their structure, parameters, initial conditions, etc. We examine how different sources of uncertainty affect people’s interpretation of, and reaction to, information about climate change by presenting participants forecasts from multiple experts. Participants viewed three types of sets of sea-level rise projections: (1) precise, but conflicting; (2) imprecise, but agreeing, and (3) hybrid that were both conflicting and imprecise. They estimated the most likely sea-level rise, provided a range of possible values and rated the sets on several features – ambiguity, credibility, completeness, etc. In Study 1, everyone saw the same hybrid set. We found that participants were sensitive to uncertainty between sources, but not to uncertainty about which model was used. The impacts of conflict and imprecision were combined for estimation tasks and compromised for feature ratings. Estimates were closer to the experts’ original projections, and sets were rated more favorably under imprecision. Estimates were least consistent with (narrower than) the experts in the hybrid condition, but participants rated the conflicting set least favorably. In Study 2, we investigated the hybrid case in more detail by creating several distinct interval sets that combine conflict and imprecision. Two factors drive perceptual differences: overlap – the structure of the forecast set (whether intersecting, nested, tangent, or disjoint) – and asymmetry – the balance of the set. Estimates were primarily driven by asymmetry, and preferences were primarily driven by overlap. Asymmetric sets were least consistent with the experts: estimated ranges were narrower, and estimates of the most likely value were shifted further below the set mean. Intersecting and nested sets were rated similarly to imprecision, and ratings of disjoint and tangent sets were rated like conflict. Our goal was to determine which underlying factors of information sets drive perceptions of uncertainty in consistent, predictable ways. The two studies lead us to conclude that perceptions of agreement require intersection and balance, and overly precise forecasts lead to greater perceptions of disagreement and a greater likelihood of the public discrediting and misinterpreting information. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T20:40:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4a9a12e34e0b4d659040aebf0ea003ab |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1664-1078 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T20:40:48Z |
| publishDate | 2018-03-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Psychology |
| spelling | doaj.art-4a9a12e34e0b4d659040aebf0ea003ab2022-12-22T00:51:30ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Psychology1664-10782018-03-01910.3389/fpsyg.2018.00403327787The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models ProjectionsDaniel M. Benjamin0David V. Budescu1Biomedical Ethics Unit, Department of Social Studies of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, QC, CanadaDepartment of Psychology, Fordham University, New York, NY, United StatesScientists agree that the climate is changing due to human activities, but there is less agreement about the specific consequences and their timeline. Disagreement among climate projections is attributable to the complexity of climate models that differ in their structure, parameters, initial conditions, etc. We examine how different sources of uncertainty affect people’s interpretation of, and reaction to, information about climate change by presenting participants forecasts from multiple experts. Participants viewed three types of sets of sea-level rise projections: (1) precise, but conflicting; (2) imprecise, but agreeing, and (3) hybrid that were both conflicting and imprecise. They estimated the most likely sea-level rise, provided a range of possible values and rated the sets on several features – ambiguity, credibility, completeness, etc. In Study 1, everyone saw the same hybrid set. We found that participants were sensitive to uncertainty between sources, but not to uncertainty about which model was used. The impacts of conflict and imprecision were combined for estimation tasks and compromised for feature ratings. Estimates were closer to the experts’ original projections, and sets were rated more favorably under imprecision. Estimates were least consistent with (narrower than) the experts in the hybrid condition, but participants rated the conflicting set least favorably. In Study 2, we investigated the hybrid case in more detail by creating several distinct interval sets that combine conflict and imprecision. Two factors drive perceptual differences: overlap – the structure of the forecast set (whether intersecting, nested, tangent, or disjoint) – and asymmetry – the balance of the set. Estimates were primarily driven by asymmetry, and preferences were primarily driven by overlap. Asymmetric sets were least consistent with the experts: estimated ranges were narrower, and estimates of the most likely value were shifted further below the set mean. Intersecting and nested sets were rated similarly to imprecision, and ratings of disjoint and tangent sets were rated like conflict. Our goal was to determine which underlying factors of information sets drive perceptions of uncertainty in consistent, predictable ways. The two studies lead us to conclude that perceptions of agreement require intersection and balance, and overly precise forecasts lead to greater perceptions of disagreement and a greater likelihood of the public discrediting and misinterpreting information.http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00403/fullsources of uncertaintyconflictimprecisionclimate changeglobal warmingforecasting |
| spellingShingle | Daniel M. Benjamin David V. Budescu The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections Frontiers in Psychology sources of uncertainty conflict imprecision climate change global warming forecasting |
| title | The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections |
| title_full | The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections |
| title_fullStr | The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections |
| title_short | The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections |
| title_sort | role of type and source of uncertainty on the processing of climate models projections |
| topic | sources of uncertainty conflict imprecision climate change global warming forecasting |
| url | http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00403/full |
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