Forecasting an invasive species’ distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information
Abstract Understanding invasive species distributions and potential invasions often requires broad‐scale information on the environmental tolerances of the species. Further, resource managers are often faced with knowing these broad‐scale relationships as well as nuanced environmental factors relate...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2018-05-01
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| Series: | Ecosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2279 |
| _version_ | 1818922814427627520 |
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| author | Catherine S. Jarnevich Nicholas E. Young Marian Talbert Colin Talbert |
| author_facet | Catherine S. Jarnevich Nicholas E. Young Marian Talbert Colin Talbert |
| author_sort | Catherine S. Jarnevich |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Understanding invasive species distributions and potential invasions often requires broad‐scale information on the environmental tolerances of the species. Further, resource managers are often faced with knowing these broad‐scale relationships as well as nuanced environmental factors related to their landscape that influence where an invasive species occurs and potentially could occur. Using invasive buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris), we developed global models and local models for Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA, based on location records and literature on physiological tolerances to environmental factors to investigate whether environmental relationships of a species at a global scale are also important at local scales. In addition to correlative models with five commonly used algorithms, we also developed a model using a priori user‐defined relationships between occurrence and environmental characteristics based on a literature review. All correlative models at both scales performed well based on statistical evaluations. The user‐defined curves closely matched those produced by the correlative models, indicating that the correlative models may be capturing mechanisms driving the distribution of buffelgrass. Given climate projections for the region, both global and local models indicate that conditions at Saguaro National Park may become more suitable for buffelgrass. Combining global and local data with correlative models and physiological information provided a holistic approach to forecasting invasive species distributions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T01:59:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4a9cbb17c37b46f08a04d256e65c7188 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2150-8925 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T01:59:31Z |
| publishDate | 2018-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-4a9cbb17c37b46f08a04d256e65c71882022-12-21T19:57:22ZengWileyEcosphere2150-89252018-05-0195n/an/a10.1002/ecs2.2279Forecasting an invasive species’ distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological informationCatherine S. Jarnevich0Nicholas E. Young1Marian Talbert2Colin Talbert3U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center 2150 Centre Ave Bldg C Fort Collins Colorado 80526 USANatural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado 80523‐1499 USADepartment of Interior North Central Climate Science Center Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado 80523 USAU.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center 2150 Centre Ave Bldg C Fort Collins Colorado 80526 USAAbstract Understanding invasive species distributions and potential invasions often requires broad‐scale information on the environmental tolerances of the species. Further, resource managers are often faced with knowing these broad‐scale relationships as well as nuanced environmental factors related to their landscape that influence where an invasive species occurs and potentially could occur. Using invasive buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris), we developed global models and local models for Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA, based on location records and literature on physiological tolerances to environmental factors to investigate whether environmental relationships of a species at a global scale are also important at local scales. In addition to correlative models with five commonly used algorithms, we also developed a model using a priori user‐defined relationships between occurrence and environmental characteristics based on a literature review. All correlative models at both scales performed well based on statistical evaluations. The user‐defined curves closely matched those produced by the correlative models, indicating that the correlative models may be capturing mechanisms driving the distribution of buffelgrass. Given climate projections for the region, both global and local models indicate that conditions at Saguaro National Park may become more suitable for buffelgrass. Combining global and local data with correlative models and physiological information provided a holistic approach to forecasting invasive species distributions.https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2279buffelgrassCenchrus ciliarisclimate changecorrelative modelhabitat suitabilityresponse curves |
| spellingShingle | Catherine S. Jarnevich Nicholas E. Young Marian Talbert Colin Talbert Forecasting an invasive species’ distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information Ecosphere buffelgrass Cenchrus ciliaris climate change correlative model habitat suitability response curves |
| title | Forecasting an invasive species’ distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information |
| title_full | Forecasting an invasive species’ distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting an invasive species’ distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting an invasive species’ distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information |
| title_short | Forecasting an invasive species’ distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information |
| title_sort | forecasting an invasive species distribution with global distribution data local data and physiological information |
| topic | buffelgrass Cenchrus ciliaris climate change correlative model habitat suitability response curves |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2279 |
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