GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL FOR PROJECTING FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES OVER UPPER INDUS RIVER BASIN
Evaluation of scenarios has become a critical component of climate change research. The performance of various GCMs in simulating observed climate at several stations in the Upper Indus River Basin was evaluated using different statistical indicators. The HadCM3, SRNIES, ECHAM4, and NCAR models sim...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam
2017-12-01
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| Series: | Pakistan Journal of Agriculture, Agricultural Engineering & Veterinary Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://pjaaevs.sau.edu.pk/index.php/ojs/article/view/207 |
| _version_ | 1797777336317247488 |
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| author | M. S. Khattak M. S. Babel T. A. Khan M. Sharif S. A. Khalil |
| author_facet | M. S. Khattak M. S. Babel T. A. Khan M. Sharif S. A. Khalil |
| author_sort | M. S. Khattak |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Evaluation of scenarios has become a critical component of climate change research. The performance of various GCMs in simulating observed climate at several stations in the Upper Indus River Basin was evaluated using different statistical indicators. The HadCM3, SRNIES, ECHAM4, and NCAR models simulated the spatial variability of mean temperature well, but the precipitation simulation was found to be inadequate. The results indicate that all the models substantially underestimated the magnitude of temperature on a monthly basis. The projected precipitation, however, showed much higher inter-model variability compared to mean temperature at all stations. Overall, a considerable inter-model variability in the simulation of observed climate was found at all stations. Owing to its ability to simulate the observed climate well, the HadCM3 model was selected for projection of future climate in the Upper Indus River Basin under several emission scenarios. Using the HadCM3 model, the temperature and precipitation changes across the UIRB were determined for two time periods; 2021-2050 (F1), and 2061-2090 (F2), relative to 1961-1990. The projected mean annual temperature across the study area varied from 1.7 to 4.3°C (for F1 and F2). The HadCM3 model predicted higher increase in mean winter temperature (from 2.1 to 4.5°C) compared to other seasons, whereas the increase in precipitation was observed in all seasons except winter. The increase in annual precipitation of 16 to 28% was projected for the two future periods considered in the present study.
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| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:02:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4a9e2621800048738b62ebf1ee5869e7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1023-1072 2663-7863 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:02:38Z |
| publishDate | 2017-12-01 |
| publisher | Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Pakistan Journal of Agriculture, Agricultural Engineering & Veterinary Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-4a9e2621800048738b62ebf1ee5869e72023-07-19T07:45:00ZengSindh Agriculture University, TandojamPakistan Journal of Agriculture, Agricultural Engineering & Veterinary Sciences1023-10722663-78632017-12-01332GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL FOR PROJECTING FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES OVER UPPER INDUS RIVER BASINM. S. Khattak0M. S. Babel1T. A. Khan2M. Sharif3S. A. Khalil4Department of Agricultural Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar, PakistanAsian Institute of Technology, Bangkok-ThailandDepartment of Agricultural Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar, PakistanDepartment of Civil Engineering, Jamia Millia Islamia Central University, New Delhi, IndiaDepartment of Agricultural Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar, Pakistan Evaluation of scenarios has become a critical component of climate change research. The performance of various GCMs in simulating observed climate at several stations in the Upper Indus River Basin was evaluated using different statistical indicators. The HadCM3, SRNIES, ECHAM4, and NCAR models simulated the spatial variability of mean temperature well, but the precipitation simulation was found to be inadequate. The results indicate that all the models substantially underestimated the magnitude of temperature on a monthly basis. The projected precipitation, however, showed much higher inter-model variability compared to mean temperature at all stations. Overall, a considerable inter-model variability in the simulation of observed climate was found at all stations. Owing to its ability to simulate the observed climate well, the HadCM3 model was selected for projection of future climate in the Upper Indus River Basin under several emission scenarios. Using the HadCM3 model, the temperature and precipitation changes across the UIRB were determined for two time periods; 2021-2050 (F1), and 2061-2090 (F2), relative to 1961-1990. The projected mean annual temperature across the study area varied from 1.7 to 4.3°C (for F1 and F2). The HadCM3 model predicted higher increase in mean winter temperature (from 2.1 to 4.5°C) compared to other seasons, whereas the increase in precipitation was observed in all seasons except winter. The increase in annual precipitation of 16 to 28% was projected for the two future periods considered in the present study. https://pjaaevs.sau.edu.pk/index.php/ojs/article/view/207GCMA2 and B2sres scenarioupper Indus River Basin |
| spellingShingle | M. S. Khattak M. S. Babel T. A. Khan M. Sharif S. A. Khalil GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL FOR PROJECTING FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES OVER UPPER INDUS RIVER BASIN Pakistan Journal of Agriculture, Agricultural Engineering & Veterinary Sciences GCM A2 and B2 sres scenario upper Indus River Basin |
| title | GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL FOR PROJECTING FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES OVER UPPER INDUS RIVER BASIN |
| title_full | GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL FOR PROJECTING FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES OVER UPPER INDUS RIVER BASIN |
| title_fullStr | GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL FOR PROJECTING FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES OVER UPPER INDUS RIVER BASIN |
| title_full_unstemmed | GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL FOR PROJECTING FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES OVER UPPER INDUS RIVER BASIN |
| title_short | GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL FOR PROJECTING FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES OVER UPPER INDUS RIVER BASIN |
| title_sort | global climate model for projecting future climate changes over upper indus river basin |
| topic | GCM A2 and B2 sres scenario upper Indus River Basin |
| url | https://pjaaevs.sau.edu.pk/index.php/ojs/article/view/207 |
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