Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 outbreak using caputo fractional derivative: stability analysis

The novel coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 is a pandemic condition and poses a massive menace to health. The governments of different countries and their various prohibitory steps to restrict the virus's expanse have changed individuals' communication processes. Due to physical and financial factors...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Ihtisham Ul Haq, Nigar Ali, Abdul Bariq, Ali Akgül, Dumitru Baleanu, Mustafa Bayram
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2024-12-01
Series:Applied Mathematics in Science and Engineering
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/27690911.2024.2326982
Description
Summary:The novel coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 is a pandemic condition and poses a massive menace to health. The governments of different countries and their various prohibitory steps to restrict the virus's expanse have changed individuals' communication processes. Due to physical and financial factors, the population's density is more likely to interact and spread the virus. We establish a mathematical model to present the spread of the COVID-19 in worldwide. In this article, we propose a novel mathematical model (‘[Formula: see text]’) to assess the impact of using hospitalization, quarantine measures, and pathogen quantity in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyse the boundedness of the model's solution by employing the Laplace transform approach to solve the fractional Gronwall's inequality. To ensure the uniqueness and existence of the solution, we rely on the Picard-Lindelof theorem. The model's basic reproduction number, a crucial indicator of epidemic potential, is determined based on the greatest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. We then employ stability theory of fractional differential equations to qualitatively examine the model. Our findings reveal that both locally and globally, the endemic equilibrium and disease-free solutions demonstrate symptomatic stability. These results shed light on the effectiveness of the proposed interventions in managing and containing the COVID-19 outbreak.
ISSN:2769-0911