Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records
<p>Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial–intersta...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Climate of the Past |
| Online Access: | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/18/1275/2022/cp-18-1275-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811332936610349056 |
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| author | E. Myrvoll-Nilsen K. Riechers K. Riechers M. W. Rypdal N. Boers N. Boers N. Boers |
| author_facet | E. Myrvoll-Nilsen K. Riechers K. Riechers M. W. Rypdal N. Boers N. Boers N. Boers |
| author_sort | E. Myrvoll-Nilsen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial–interstadial transitions in Greenland ice core records during glacial intervals, for comparing the variability in different proxy archives, and for model-data comparisons in general. In this study we develop a statistical framework to quantify and propagate dating uncertainties in layer counted proxy archives using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structured component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a regression model, and a noise component that represents the fluctuations of the underlying physical processes, as well as unbiased counting errors. The joint dating uncertainties for all depths can then be described by a multivariate Gaussian process from which the chronology (such as the GICC05) can be sampled. We show how the effect of a potential counting bias can be incorporated in our framework. Furthermore we present refined estimates of the occurrence times of Dansgaard–Oeschger events evidenced in Greenland ice cores together with a complete uncertainty quantification of these timings.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T16:44:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4aaaaca9b4304777863c01e5fabc785b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1814-9324 1814-9332 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T16:44:34Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate of the Past |
| spelling | doaj.art-4aaaaca9b4304777863c01e5fabc785b2022-12-22T02:39:07ZengCopernicus PublicationsClimate of the Past1814-93241814-93322022-06-01181275129410.5194/cp-18-1275-2022Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core recordsE. Myrvoll-Nilsen0K. Riechers1K. Riechers2M. W. Rypdal3N. Boers4N. Boers5N. Boers6Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, GermanyEarth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, GermanyDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Tromsø – The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, NorwayPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, GermanyEarth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, GermanyDepartment of Mathematics, Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK<p>Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial–interstadial transitions in Greenland ice core records during glacial intervals, for comparing the variability in different proxy archives, and for model-data comparisons in general. In this study we develop a statistical framework to quantify and propagate dating uncertainties in layer counted proxy archives using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structured component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a regression model, and a noise component that represents the fluctuations of the underlying physical processes, as well as unbiased counting errors. The joint dating uncertainties for all depths can then be described by a multivariate Gaussian process from which the chronology (such as the GICC05) can be sampled. We show how the effect of a potential counting bias can be incorporated in our framework. Furthermore we present refined estimates of the occurrence times of Dansgaard–Oeschger events evidenced in Greenland ice cores together with a complete uncertainty quantification of these timings.</p>https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/18/1275/2022/cp-18-1275-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | E. Myrvoll-Nilsen K. Riechers K. Riechers M. W. Rypdal N. Boers N. Boers N. Boers Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records Climate of the Past |
| title | Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
| title_full | Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
| title_fullStr | Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
| title_short | Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
| title_sort | comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of greenland warmings in the greenland ice core records |
| url | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/18/1275/2022/cp-18-1275-2022.pdf |
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