Modeled vegetation community trajectories: Effects from climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and soil acidification recovery
Forest understory plant communities in the United States harbor most of the vegetation diversity of forests and are often sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N). As temperature increases from human-caused climate change and soils recover from long term atmospheric...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Environmental Advances |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666765722001065 |
| _version_ | 1828127561927884800 |
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| author | T.C. McDonnell C.M. Clark G.J. Reinds T.J. Sullivan B. Knees |
| author_facet | T.C. McDonnell C.M. Clark G.J. Reinds T.J. Sullivan B. Knees |
| author_sort | T.C. McDonnell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Forest understory plant communities in the United States harbor most of the vegetation diversity of forests and are often sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N). As temperature increases from human-caused climate change and soils recover from long term atmospheric deposition of N and sulfur (S), it is unclear how these important ecosystem components will respond. We used the newly developed US-PROPS model – based on species response functions for over 1,500 species - to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric N deposition and climate change on species occurrence probability for a case study in the forested ecosystems of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM), an iconic park in the southeastern United States. We evaluated six future scenarios from various combinations of two potential recoveries of soil pH (no change, +0.5 pH units) and three climate futures (no change, +1.5, +3.0 deg C). Species critical loads (CLs) of N deposition and projected responses for each scenario were determined. Critical loads were estimated to be low (< 2 kg N/ha/yr) to protect all species under current and expected future conditions across broad regions of GRSM and these CLs were exceeded at large spatial extents among scenarios. Northern hardwood, yellow pine, and chestnut oak forests were among the most N-sensitive vegetation map classes found within GRSM. Potential future air temperature conditions generally led to decreases in the maximum occurrence probability for species. Therefore, CLs were considered “unattainable” in these situations because the specified level of protection used for CL determination (i.e., maximum occurrence probability under ambient conditions) was not attainable. Although some species showed decreases in maximum occurrence probability with simulated increases in soil pH, most species were favored by increased pH. The importance of our study is rooted in the methodology described here for establishing regional CLs and for evaluating future conditions, which is transferable to other national parks in the U.S. and in Europe where the original PROPS model was developed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T15:52:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4acbea4871ef48afa69eafa3fe88d1df |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-7657 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T15:52:10Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Advances |
| spelling | doaj.art-4acbea4871ef48afa69eafa3fe88d1df2022-12-22T04:15:16ZengElsevierEnvironmental Advances2666-76572022-10-019100271Modeled vegetation community trajectories: Effects from climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and soil acidification recoveryT.C. McDonnell0C.M. Clark1G.J. Reinds2T.J. Sullivan3B. Knees4E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc., PO Box 609, Corvallis, OR 97339, USA; Corresponding author.US EPA, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington DC, 20460, USAWageningen University and Research, Environmental Research (Alterra), P.O. Box 47, Wageningen 6700 AA, the NetherlandsE&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc., PO Box 609, Corvallis, OR 97339, USAE&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc., PO Box 609, Corvallis, OR 97339, USAForest understory plant communities in the United States harbor most of the vegetation diversity of forests and are often sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N). As temperature increases from human-caused climate change and soils recover from long term atmospheric deposition of N and sulfur (S), it is unclear how these important ecosystem components will respond. We used the newly developed US-PROPS model – based on species response functions for over 1,500 species - to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric N deposition and climate change on species occurrence probability for a case study in the forested ecosystems of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM), an iconic park in the southeastern United States. We evaluated six future scenarios from various combinations of two potential recoveries of soil pH (no change, +0.5 pH units) and three climate futures (no change, +1.5, +3.0 deg C). Species critical loads (CLs) of N deposition and projected responses for each scenario were determined. Critical loads were estimated to be low (< 2 kg N/ha/yr) to protect all species under current and expected future conditions across broad regions of GRSM and these CLs were exceeded at large spatial extents among scenarios. Northern hardwood, yellow pine, and chestnut oak forests were among the most N-sensitive vegetation map classes found within GRSM. Potential future air temperature conditions generally led to decreases in the maximum occurrence probability for species. Therefore, CLs were considered “unattainable” in these situations because the specified level of protection used for CL determination (i.e., maximum occurrence probability under ambient conditions) was not attainable. Although some species showed decreases in maximum occurrence probability with simulated increases in soil pH, most species were favored by increased pH. The importance of our study is rooted in the methodology described here for establishing regional CLs and for evaluating future conditions, which is transferable to other national parks in the U.S. and in Europe where the original PROPS model was developed.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666765722001065Forest understoryBiodiversityNitrogenClimate changeCritical loadGreat Smoky Mountains National Park |
| spellingShingle | T.C. McDonnell C.M. Clark G.J. Reinds T.J. Sullivan B. Knees Modeled vegetation community trajectories: Effects from climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and soil acidification recovery Environmental Advances Forest understory Biodiversity Nitrogen Climate change Critical load Great Smoky Mountains National Park |
| title | Modeled vegetation community trajectories: Effects from climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and soil acidification recovery |
| title_full | Modeled vegetation community trajectories: Effects from climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and soil acidification recovery |
| title_fullStr | Modeled vegetation community trajectories: Effects from climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and soil acidification recovery |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeled vegetation community trajectories: Effects from climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and soil acidification recovery |
| title_short | Modeled vegetation community trajectories: Effects from climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and soil acidification recovery |
| title_sort | modeled vegetation community trajectories effects from climate change atmospheric nitrogen deposition and soil acidification recovery |
| topic | Forest understory Biodiversity Nitrogen Climate change Critical load Great Smoky Mountains National Park |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666765722001065 |
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