Recent and projected changes in water scarcity and unprecedented drought events over Southern Pakistan
In recent decades, water scarcity is a significant constraint for socioeconomic development and threatens livelihood in an agriculture-based developing country like Pakistan. The water crisis in the country is projected to exacerbate in the coming years, especially in the southern parts. This dire s...
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| Format: | Article |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1113554/full |
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| author | Irfan Ullah Irfan Ullah Xin-Min Zeng Xin-Min Zeng Saadia Hina Sidra Syed Xieyao Ma Xieyao Ma Vedaste Iyakaremye Jun Yin Jun Yin Vijay P. Singh Vijay P. Singh |
| author_facet | Irfan Ullah Irfan Ullah Xin-Min Zeng Xin-Min Zeng Saadia Hina Sidra Syed Xieyao Ma Xieyao Ma Vedaste Iyakaremye Jun Yin Jun Yin Vijay P. Singh Vijay P. Singh |
| author_sort | Irfan Ullah |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent decades, water scarcity is a significant constraint for socioeconomic development and threatens livelihood in an agriculture-based developing country like Pakistan. The water crisis in the country is projected to exacerbate in the coming years, especially in the southern parts. This dire situation calls for an investigation of major droughts, associated water scarcity, and changes in teleconnection patterns over Southern Pakistan. Moderate to low Southeastern monsoon (SEM) precipitation triggered the extreme drought episode (2017–2020) over Southern Pakistan and intensified the water scarcity. This study explored the severity of the respective drought event, underlying mechanisms, and changes in water scarcity over Southern Pakistan. To investigate the future changes (1980–2050) in water scarcity, coupling models (global hydrological models (GHMs)-global climate models (GCMs)) have been used to achieve the interannual performance of water availability and total water consumption. Besides, future scenarios used in this study are the combinations of SSPs and RCPs, including middle-of-the-road (SSP1-RCP4.5) and fossil-fueled development (SSP2-RCP8.5). The findings indicated a precipitation deficit of 45% during the 4-year (2017–2020), depicting the worst events in the past 50 years. South Pakistan observed the worst SEM droughts over the last 50 years, as 2000–2005 was the worst drought (precipitation deficit of 75%), followed by 2017–2020 with a 49% of precipitation deficit. Water scarcity was exacerbated by the extreme dry spells that developed over most of southern Pakistan between 2017 and 2020 as a result of moderate-to-exceptionally low SEM precipitation. Furthermore, this drought episode was accompanied by the cool phase in the Pacific and equatorial Indian Oceans. The future changes in water scarcity over the southern regions of Pakistan present a sharp increase under the SSP2-RCP8.5 scenario and are anticipated to be intensified in already stressed regions. This research is essential for environmentalists, and water resources managers, and provided crucial information to identify the hot spot areas in the target region so that water scarcity problems could be reduced in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T21:42:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4b2c2e57032f4634bd75c158a674ca5a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-6463 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T21:42:57Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-4b2c2e57032f4634bd75c158a674ca5a2023-12-20T11:22:30ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Earth Science2296-64632023-05-011110.3389/feart.2023.11135541113554Recent and projected changes in water scarcity and unprecedented drought events over Southern PakistanIrfan Ullah0Irfan Ullah1Xin-Min Zeng2Xin-Min Zeng3Saadia Hina4Sidra Syed5Xieyao Ma6Xieyao Ma7Vedaste Iyakaremye8Jun Yin9Jun Yin10Vijay P. Singh11Vijay P. Singh12College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, ChinaCMA-HHU Joint Laboratory for Hydrometeorological Studies, Hohai University, Nanjing, ChinaCollege of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, ChinaCMA-HHU Joint Laboratory for Hydrometeorological Studies, Hohai University, Nanjing, ChinaDepartment of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad, PakistanInstitute of Peace and Conflicts Studies, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, PakistanSchool of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaRwanda Meteorology Agency, Kigali, RwandaSchool of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaDepartment of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United StatesZachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United StatesIn recent decades, water scarcity is a significant constraint for socioeconomic development and threatens livelihood in an agriculture-based developing country like Pakistan. The water crisis in the country is projected to exacerbate in the coming years, especially in the southern parts. This dire situation calls for an investigation of major droughts, associated water scarcity, and changes in teleconnection patterns over Southern Pakistan. Moderate to low Southeastern monsoon (SEM) precipitation triggered the extreme drought episode (2017–2020) over Southern Pakistan and intensified the water scarcity. This study explored the severity of the respective drought event, underlying mechanisms, and changes in water scarcity over Southern Pakistan. To investigate the future changes (1980–2050) in water scarcity, coupling models (global hydrological models (GHMs)-global climate models (GCMs)) have been used to achieve the interannual performance of water availability and total water consumption. Besides, future scenarios used in this study are the combinations of SSPs and RCPs, including middle-of-the-road (SSP1-RCP4.5) and fossil-fueled development (SSP2-RCP8.5). The findings indicated a precipitation deficit of 45% during the 4-year (2017–2020), depicting the worst events in the past 50 years. South Pakistan observed the worst SEM droughts over the last 50 years, as 2000–2005 was the worst drought (precipitation deficit of 75%), followed by 2017–2020 with a 49% of precipitation deficit. Water scarcity was exacerbated by the extreme dry spells that developed over most of southern Pakistan between 2017 and 2020 as a result of moderate-to-exceptionally low SEM precipitation. Furthermore, this drought episode was accompanied by the cool phase in the Pacific and equatorial Indian Oceans. The future changes in water scarcity over the southern regions of Pakistan present a sharp increase under the SSP2-RCP8.5 scenario and are anticipated to be intensified in already stressed regions. This research is essential for environmentalists, and water resources managers, and provided crucial information to identify the hot spot areas in the target region so that water scarcity problems could be reduced in the future.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1113554/fullprojectionsdroughtwater scarcityclimate variabilityclimate driverssouth Pakistan |
| spellingShingle | Irfan Ullah Irfan Ullah Xin-Min Zeng Xin-Min Zeng Saadia Hina Sidra Syed Xieyao Ma Xieyao Ma Vedaste Iyakaremye Jun Yin Jun Yin Vijay P. Singh Vijay P. Singh Recent and projected changes in water scarcity and unprecedented drought events over Southern Pakistan Frontiers in Earth Science projections drought water scarcity climate variability climate drivers south Pakistan |
| title | Recent and projected changes in water scarcity and unprecedented drought events over Southern Pakistan |
| title_full | Recent and projected changes in water scarcity and unprecedented drought events over Southern Pakistan |
| title_fullStr | Recent and projected changes in water scarcity and unprecedented drought events over Southern Pakistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Recent and projected changes in water scarcity and unprecedented drought events over Southern Pakistan |
| title_short | Recent and projected changes in water scarcity and unprecedented drought events over Southern Pakistan |
| title_sort | recent and projected changes in water scarcity and unprecedented drought events over southern pakistan |
| topic | projections drought water scarcity climate variability climate drivers south Pakistan |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1113554/full |
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