Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic
Using a networked, agent-based computational model of a stylized community, we evaluated thresholds for rescinding 2 community mitigation strategies after an influenza pandemic. We ended child sequestering or all-community sequestering when illness incidence waned to thresholds of 0, 1, 2, or 3 case...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2008-03-01
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| Series: | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/14/3/07-0673_article |
| _version_ | 1811285491320881152 |
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| author | Victoria J. Davey Robert J. Glass |
| author_facet | Victoria J. Davey Robert J. Glass |
| author_sort | Victoria J. Davey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Using a networked, agent-based computational model of a stylized community, we evaluated thresholds for rescinding 2 community mitigation strategies after an influenza pandemic. We ended child sequestering or all-community sequestering when illness incidence waned to thresholds of 0, 1, 2, or 3 cases in 7 days in 2 levels of pandemic severity. An unmitigated epidemic or strategy continuation for the epidemic duration served as control scenarios. The 0-case per 7-day rescinding threshold was comparable to the continuation strategy on infection and illness rates but reduced the number of days strategies would be needed by 6% to 32% in mild or severe pandemics. If cases recurred, strategies were resumed at a predefined 10-case trigger, and epidemic recurrence was thwarted. Strategies were most effective when used with high compliance and when combined with stringent rescinding thresholds. The need for strategies implemented for control of an influenza pandemic was reduced, without increasing illness rates. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:44:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4b827df2199b4b6fa5d213809823dc53 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1080-6040 1080-6059 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:44:53Z |
| publishDate | 2008-03-01 |
| publisher | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-4b827df2199b4b6fa5d213809823dc532022-12-22T03:06:03ZengCenters for Disease Control and PreventionEmerging Infectious Diseases1080-60401080-60592008-03-0114336537210.3201/eid1403.070673Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza PandemicVictoria J. DaveyRobert J. GlassUsing a networked, agent-based computational model of a stylized community, we evaluated thresholds for rescinding 2 community mitigation strategies after an influenza pandemic. We ended child sequestering or all-community sequestering when illness incidence waned to thresholds of 0, 1, 2, or 3 cases in 7 days in 2 levels of pandemic severity. An unmitigated epidemic or strategy continuation for the epidemic duration served as control scenarios. The 0-case per 7-day rescinding threshold was comparable to the continuation strategy on infection and illness rates but reduced the number of days strategies would be needed by 6% to 32% in mild or severe pandemics. If cases recurred, strategies were resumed at a predefined 10-case trigger, and epidemic recurrence was thwarted. Strategies were most effective when used with high compliance and when combined with stringent rescinding thresholds. The need for strategies implemented for control of an influenza pandemic was reduced, without increasing illness rates.https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/14/3/07-0673_articlePandemic influenzacommunity mitigationschool closingnonpharmaceutical interventionssocial distancingsequestering |
| spellingShingle | Victoria J. Davey Robert J. Glass Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic Emerging Infectious Diseases Pandemic influenza community mitigation school closing nonpharmaceutical interventions social distancing sequestering |
| title | Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic |
| title_full | Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic |
| title_fullStr | Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic |
| title_short | Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic |
| title_sort | rescinding community mitigation strategies in an influenza pandemic |
| topic | Pandemic influenza community mitigation school closing nonpharmaceutical interventions social distancing sequestering |
| url | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/14/3/07-0673_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT victoriajdavey rescindingcommunitymitigationstrategiesinaninfluenzapandemic AT robertjglass rescindingcommunitymitigationstrategiesinaninfluenzapandemic |