Meeting the 2030 END TB goals in the wake of COVID-19: A modelling study of countries in the USAID TB portfolio.
Progress towards the 2030 End TB goals has seen severe setbacks due to disruptions arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. For governments and international partner organizations supporting the global TB response, there is a need to assess what level of effort is now needed to reach these goals. Using m...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023-01-01
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| Series: | PLOS Global Public Health |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0001271&type=printable |
| _version_ | 1797647746187919360 |
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| author | Nimalan Arinaminpathy Ya Diul Mukadi Amy Bloom Cheri Vincent Sevim Ahmedov |
| author_facet | Nimalan Arinaminpathy Ya Diul Mukadi Amy Bloom Cheri Vincent Sevim Ahmedov |
| author_sort | Nimalan Arinaminpathy |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Progress towards the 2030 End TB goals has seen severe setbacks due to disruptions arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. For governments and international partner organizations supporting the global TB response, there is a need to assess what level of effort is now needed to reach these goals. Using mathematical modelling, we addressed this question for the countries being supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). We aggregated the 24 countries in the USAID portfolio into three geographical country groups: South Asia; sub-Saharan Africa; and Central Asian Republics/Europe (CAR/EU). From 2023 onwards we modelled a combination of interventions acting at different stages of the care cascade, including improved diagnostics; reducing the patient care seeking delay; and the rollout of a disease-preventing vaccine from 2025 onwards. We found that in all three country groups, meeting the End TB goals by 2030 will require a combination of interventions acting at stages of the TB care cascade. Specific priorities may depend on country settings, for example with public-private mix playing an important role in countries in South Asia and elsewhere. When a vaccine becomes available, its required coverage to meet the 2030 goals will vary by setting, depending on the amount of preventive therapy that has already been implemented. Monitoring the number-needed-to-test to identify 1 person with TB in community settings can provide a useful measure of progress towards the End TB goals. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:20:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4bb704280b3b46ea94fe9872ddd25676 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2767-3375 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:20:57Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLOS Global Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-4bb704280b3b46ea94fe9872ddd256762023-10-28T05:56:02ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLOS Global Public Health2767-33752023-01-01310e000127110.1371/journal.pgph.0001271Meeting the 2030 END TB goals in the wake of COVID-19: A modelling study of countries in the USAID TB portfolio.Nimalan ArinaminpathyYa Diul MukadiAmy BloomCheri VincentSevim AhmedovProgress towards the 2030 End TB goals has seen severe setbacks due to disruptions arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. For governments and international partner organizations supporting the global TB response, there is a need to assess what level of effort is now needed to reach these goals. Using mathematical modelling, we addressed this question for the countries being supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). We aggregated the 24 countries in the USAID portfolio into three geographical country groups: South Asia; sub-Saharan Africa; and Central Asian Republics/Europe (CAR/EU). From 2023 onwards we modelled a combination of interventions acting at different stages of the care cascade, including improved diagnostics; reducing the patient care seeking delay; and the rollout of a disease-preventing vaccine from 2025 onwards. We found that in all three country groups, meeting the End TB goals by 2030 will require a combination of interventions acting at stages of the TB care cascade. Specific priorities may depend on country settings, for example with public-private mix playing an important role in countries in South Asia and elsewhere. When a vaccine becomes available, its required coverage to meet the 2030 goals will vary by setting, depending on the amount of preventive therapy that has already been implemented. Monitoring the number-needed-to-test to identify 1 person with TB in community settings can provide a useful measure of progress towards the End TB goals.https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0001271&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Nimalan Arinaminpathy Ya Diul Mukadi Amy Bloom Cheri Vincent Sevim Ahmedov Meeting the 2030 END TB goals in the wake of COVID-19: A modelling study of countries in the USAID TB portfolio. PLOS Global Public Health |
| title | Meeting the 2030 END TB goals in the wake of COVID-19: A modelling study of countries in the USAID TB portfolio. |
| title_full | Meeting the 2030 END TB goals in the wake of COVID-19: A modelling study of countries in the USAID TB portfolio. |
| title_fullStr | Meeting the 2030 END TB goals in the wake of COVID-19: A modelling study of countries in the USAID TB portfolio. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Meeting the 2030 END TB goals in the wake of COVID-19: A modelling study of countries in the USAID TB portfolio. |
| title_short | Meeting the 2030 END TB goals in the wake of COVID-19: A modelling study of countries in the USAID TB portfolio. |
| title_sort | meeting the 2030 end tb goals in the wake of covid 19 a modelling study of countries in the usaid tb portfolio |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0001271&type=printable |
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