Systematically false positives in early warning signal analysis.
Many systems in various scientific fields like medicine, ecology, economics or climate science exhibit so-called critical transitions, through which a system abruptly changes from one state to a different state. Typical examples are epileptic seizures, changes in the climate system or catastrophic s...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2019-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211072 |
| _version_ | 1819146390932029440 |
|---|---|
| author | Georg Jäger Manfred Füllsack |
| author_facet | Georg Jäger Manfred Füllsack |
| author_sort | Georg Jäger |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Many systems in various scientific fields like medicine, ecology, economics or climate science exhibit so-called critical transitions, through which a system abruptly changes from one state to a different state. Typical examples are epileptic seizures, changes in the climate system or catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. In order to predict imminent critical transitions, a mathematical apparatus called early warning signals has been developed and this method is used successfully in many scientific areas. However, not all critical transitions can be detected by this approach (false negative) and the appearance of early warning signals does not necessarily proof that a critical transition is imminent (false positive). Furthermore, there are whole classes of systems that always show early warning signals, even though they do not feature critical transitions. In this study we identify such classes in order to provide a safeguard against a misinterpretation of the results of an early warning signal analysis of such systems. Furthermore, we discuss strategies to avoid such systematic false positives and test our theoretical insights by applying them to real world data. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T13:13:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4c4e41072b344b47954e3ef5607dfc20 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T13:13:10Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-4c4e41072b344b47954e3ef5607dfc202022-12-21T18:24:42ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032019-01-01142e021107210.1371/journal.pone.0211072Systematically false positives in early warning signal analysis.Georg JägerManfred FüllsackMany systems in various scientific fields like medicine, ecology, economics or climate science exhibit so-called critical transitions, through which a system abruptly changes from one state to a different state. Typical examples are epileptic seizures, changes in the climate system or catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. In order to predict imminent critical transitions, a mathematical apparatus called early warning signals has been developed and this method is used successfully in many scientific areas. However, not all critical transitions can be detected by this approach (false negative) and the appearance of early warning signals does not necessarily proof that a critical transition is imminent (false positive). Furthermore, there are whole classes of systems that always show early warning signals, even though they do not feature critical transitions. In this study we identify such classes in order to provide a safeguard against a misinterpretation of the results of an early warning signal analysis of such systems. Furthermore, we discuss strategies to avoid such systematic false positives and test our theoretical insights by applying them to real world data.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211072 |
| spellingShingle | Georg Jäger Manfred Füllsack Systematically false positives in early warning signal analysis. PLoS ONE |
| title | Systematically false positives in early warning signal analysis. |
| title_full | Systematically false positives in early warning signal analysis. |
| title_fullStr | Systematically false positives in early warning signal analysis. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Systematically false positives in early warning signal analysis. |
| title_short | Systematically false positives in early warning signal analysis. |
| title_sort | systematically false positives in early warning signal analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211072 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT georgjager systematicallyfalsepositivesinearlywarningsignalanalysis AT manfredfullsack systematicallyfalsepositivesinearlywarningsignalanalysis |