A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer: a population-based study
Abstract Background 5–10% of patients are diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) at the initial diagnosis. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of these patients. Methods de novo MBC patients diagnosed in 2010–2016 were identified from the Surveillance,...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2020-10-01
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| Series: | BMC Cancer |
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| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12885-020-07449-1 |
| _version_ | 1818126415346794496 |
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| author | Wen Zhao Lei Wu Andi Zhao Mi Zhang Qi Tian Yanwei Shen Fan Wang Biyuan Wang Le Wang Ling Chen Xiaoai Zhao Danfeng Dong Lingxiao Zhang Jin Yang |
| author_facet | Wen Zhao Lei Wu Andi Zhao Mi Zhang Qi Tian Yanwei Shen Fan Wang Biyuan Wang Le Wang Ling Chen Xiaoai Zhao Danfeng Dong Lingxiao Zhang Jin Yang |
| author_sort | Wen Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background 5–10% of patients are diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) at the initial diagnosis. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of these patients. Methods de novo MBC patients diagnosed in 2010–2016 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. They were randomly divided into a training and a validation cohort with a ratio of 2:1. The best subsets of covariates were identified to develop a nomogram predicting OS based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value in the multivariate Cox models. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated using the Concordance index, the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curves. Results In this study, we included 7986 patients with de novo MBC. The median follow-up time was 36 months (range: 0–83 months). Five thousand three-hundred twenty four patients were allocated into the training cohort while 2662 were allocated into the validation cohort. In the training cohort, age at diagnosis, race, marital status, differentiation grade, subtype, T stage, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, surgery and chemotherapy were selected to create the nomogram estimating the 1-, 3- and 5- year OS based on the smallest AIC value in the multivariate Cox models. The nomogram achieved a Concordance index of 0.723 (95% CI, 0.713–0.733) in the training cohort and 0.719 (95% CI, 0.705–0.734) in the validation cohort. AUC values of the nomogram indicated good specificity and sensitivity in the training and validation cohort. Calibration curves showed a favorable consistency between the predicted and actual survival probabilities. Conclusion The developed nomogram reliably predicted OS in patients with de novo MBC and presented a favorable discrimination ability. While further validation is needed, this may be a useful tool in clinical practice. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T07:01:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4c5a00f0684a4faa9f467d3fa8bc4074 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2407 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T07:01:06Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Cancer |
| spelling | doaj.art-4c5a00f0684a4faa9f467d3fa8bc40742022-12-22T01:16:37ZengBMCBMC Cancer1471-24072020-10-0120111010.1186/s12885-020-07449-1A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer: a population-based studyWen Zhao0Lei Wu1Andi Zhao2Mi Zhang3Qi Tian4Yanwei Shen5Fan Wang6Biyuan Wang7Le Wang8Ling Chen9Xiaoai Zhao10Danfeng Dong11Lingxiao Zhang12Jin Yang13Department of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityDepartment of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityAbstract Background 5–10% of patients are diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) at the initial diagnosis. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of these patients. Methods de novo MBC patients diagnosed in 2010–2016 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. They were randomly divided into a training and a validation cohort with a ratio of 2:1. The best subsets of covariates were identified to develop a nomogram predicting OS based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value in the multivariate Cox models. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated using the Concordance index, the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curves. Results In this study, we included 7986 patients with de novo MBC. The median follow-up time was 36 months (range: 0–83 months). Five thousand three-hundred twenty four patients were allocated into the training cohort while 2662 were allocated into the validation cohort. In the training cohort, age at diagnosis, race, marital status, differentiation grade, subtype, T stage, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, surgery and chemotherapy were selected to create the nomogram estimating the 1-, 3- and 5- year OS based on the smallest AIC value in the multivariate Cox models. The nomogram achieved a Concordance index of 0.723 (95% CI, 0.713–0.733) in the training cohort and 0.719 (95% CI, 0.705–0.734) in the validation cohort. AUC values of the nomogram indicated good specificity and sensitivity in the training and validation cohort. Calibration curves showed a favorable consistency between the predicted and actual survival probabilities. Conclusion The developed nomogram reliably predicted OS in patients with de novo MBC and presented a favorable discrimination ability. While further validation is needed, this may be a useful tool in clinical practice.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12885-020-07449-1De novo metastatic breast cancerPrimary tumor resectionOverall survivalSEERNomogram |
| spellingShingle | Wen Zhao Lei Wu Andi Zhao Mi Zhang Qi Tian Yanwei Shen Fan Wang Biyuan Wang Le Wang Ling Chen Xiaoai Zhao Danfeng Dong Lingxiao Zhang Jin Yang A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer: a population-based study BMC Cancer De novo metastatic breast cancer Primary tumor resection Overall survival SEER Nomogram |
| title | A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer: a population-based study |
| title_full | A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer: a population-based study |
| title_fullStr | A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer: a population-based study |
| title_full_unstemmed | A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer: a population-based study |
| title_short | A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer: a population-based study |
| title_sort | nomogram for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer a population based study |
| topic | De novo metastatic breast cancer Primary tumor resection Overall survival SEER Nomogram |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12885-020-07449-1 |
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