Bayesian Structural Time Series and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Modelling Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on the Spatiotemporal Patterns of London’s Crimes
Given the paramount impacts of COVID-19 on people’s lives in the capital of the UK, London, it was foreseeable that the city’s crime patterns would have undergone significant transformations, especially during lockdown periods. This study aims to testify the crime patterns’ changes in London, using...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2024-01-01
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| Series: | ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/13/1/18 |
| _version_ | 1797343541995765760 |
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| author | Rui Wang Yijing Li |
| author_facet | Rui Wang Yijing Li |
| author_sort | Rui Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Given the paramount impacts of COVID-19 on people’s lives in the capital of the UK, London, it was foreseeable that the city’s crime patterns would have undergone significant transformations, especially during lockdown periods. This study aims to testify the crime patterns’ changes in London, using data from March 2020 to March 2021 to explore the driving forces for such changes, and hence propose data-driven insights for policy makers and practitioners on London’s crime deduction and prevention potentiality in post-pandemic era. (1) Upon exploratory data analyses on the overall crime change patterns, an innovative BSTS model has been proposed by integrating restriction-level time series into the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model. This novel method allows the research to evaluate the varied effects of London’s three lockdown periods on local crimes among the regions of London. (2) Based on the predictive results from the BSTS modelling, three regression models were deployed to identify the driving forces for respective types of crime experiencing significant increases during lockdown periods. (3) The findings solidified research hypotheses on the distinct factors influencing London’s specific types of crime by period and by region. In light of the received evidence, insights on a modified policing allocation model and supporting the unemployed group was proposed in the aim of effectively mitigating the surges of crimes in London. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T10:49:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4c68ae1258bf4451ab5b96dd0b3ce4e4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2220-9964 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T10:49:10Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information |
| spelling | doaj.art-4c68ae1258bf4451ab5b96dd0b3ce4e42024-01-26T16:50:08ZengMDPI AGISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information2220-99642024-01-011311810.3390/ijgi13010018Bayesian Structural Time Series and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Modelling Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on the Spatiotemporal Patterns of London’s CrimesRui Wang0Yijing Li1CUSP London, Department of Informatics, King’s College London, London WC2B 4BG, UKCUSP London, Department of Informatics, King’s College London, London WC2B 4BG, UKGiven the paramount impacts of COVID-19 on people’s lives in the capital of the UK, London, it was foreseeable that the city’s crime patterns would have undergone significant transformations, especially during lockdown periods. This study aims to testify the crime patterns’ changes in London, using data from March 2020 to March 2021 to explore the driving forces for such changes, and hence propose data-driven insights for policy makers and practitioners on London’s crime deduction and prevention potentiality in post-pandemic era. (1) Upon exploratory data analyses on the overall crime change patterns, an innovative BSTS model has been proposed by integrating restriction-level time series into the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model. This novel method allows the research to evaluate the varied effects of London’s three lockdown periods on local crimes among the regions of London. (2) Based on the predictive results from the BSTS modelling, three regression models were deployed to identify the driving forces for respective types of crime experiencing significant increases during lockdown periods. (3) The findings solidified research hypotheses on the distinct factors influencing London’s specific types of crime by period and by region. In light of the received evidence, insights on a modified policing allocation model and supporting the unemployed group was proposed in the aim of effectively mitigating the surges of crimes in London.https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/13/1/18COVID-19lockdowncrime patternspatiotemporal analysisBayesian structural time series (BSTS)regression |
| spellingShingle | Rui Wang Yijing Li Bayesian Structural Time Series and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Modelling Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on the Spatiotemporal Patterns of London’s Crimes ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information COVID-19 lockdown crime pattern spatiotemporal analysis Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) regression |
| title | Bayesian Structural Time Series and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Modelling Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on the Spatiotemporal Patterns of London’s Crimes |
| title_full | Bayesian Structural Time Series and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Modelling Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on the Spatiotemporal Patterns of London’s Crimes |
| title_fullStr | Bayesian Structural Time Series and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Modelling Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on the Spatiotemporal Patterns of London’s Crimes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bayesian Structural Time Series and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Modelling Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on the Spatiotemporal Patterns of London’s Crimes |
| title_short | Bayesian Structural Time Series and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Modelling Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on the Spatiotemporal Patterns of London’s Crimes |
| title_sort | bayesian structural time series and geographically weighted logistic regression modelling impacts of covid 19 lockdowns on the spatiotemporal patterns of london s crimes |
| topic | COVID-19 lockdown crime pattern spatiotemporal analysis Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) regression |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/13/1/18 |
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