Projections of drought characteristics based on combined drought index under CMIP6 models
This study assesses climate change's impact on drought in Iran's Dez Basin. It introduces the Hydro-Meteorological Drought Index (HMDI), integrating the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). Using Climatic Research Unit Time Series...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Water Practice and Technology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://wpt.iwaponline.com/content/18/11/2818 |
| _version_ | 1797428452463214592 |
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| author | Mahrokh Shafiei Mahnoosh Moghaddasi Kimia Naderi |
| author_facet | Mahrokh Shafiei Mahnoosh Moghaddasi Kimia Naderi |
| author_sort | Mahrokh Shafiei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study assesses climate change's impact on drought in Iran's Dez Basin. It introduces the Hydro-Meteorological Drought Index (HMDI), integrating the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). Using Climatic Research Unit Time Series (CRU TS) data (1980-2012) and downscaling forecasted data from three CMIP6 models (2020-2052) for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, we employ the rainfall-runoff Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning Hydrological Bureau's Water Balance Model (HBV)-Light model to predict future streamflow. Drought characteristics are analyzed. Under SSP5-8.5, CanEsm5 shows substantial temperature and runoff increases, notably in Bakhtiari and Borujerd sub-basins (63% and 56%). Future droughts are expected to intensify, particularly under SSP5-8.5. The most severe HMDI-derived drought (HMDI 12) in Borujerd station is projected to increase from -43.44 to -44.05. SSP5-8.5 is likelier to cause severe and prolonged HMDI-derived droughts than SSP1-2.6 or the historical period. The analysis suggests that normal drought levels will persist, while mild and severe drought levels will rise in the future.
HIGHLIGHTS
Using CMIP6 to assess the impact of climate change.;
Using compound drought index to monitor hydrological and meteorological drought.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T08:59:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4c779d125e8540018a33f9368396f6d3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1751-231X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T08:59:06Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water Practice and Technology |
| spelling | doaj.art-4c779d125e8540018a33f9368396f6d32023-12-02T12:11:39ZengIWA PublishingWater Practice and Technology1751-231X2023-11-0118112818283310.2166/wpt.2023.175175Projections of drought characteristics based on combined drought index under CMIP6 modelsMahrokh Shafiei0Mahnoosh Moghaddasi1Kimia Naderi2 Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Godollo, Hungary Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, Arak University, Arak, Iran Arak University, Arak, Iran This study assesses climate change's impact on drought in Iran's Dez Basin. It introduces the Hydro-Meteorological Drought Index (HMDI), integrating the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). Using Climatic Research Unit Time Series (CRU TS) data (1980-2012) and downscaling forecasted data from three CMIP6 models (2020-2052) for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, we employ the rainfall-runoff Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning Hydrological Bureau's Water Balance Model (HBV)-Light model to predict future streamflow. Drought characteristics are analyzed. Under SSP5-8.5, CanEsm5 shows substantial temperature and runoff increases, notably in Bakhtiari and Borujerd sub-basins (63% and 56%). Future droughts are expected to intensify, particularly under SSP5-8.5. The most severe HMDI-derived drought (HMDI 12) in Borujerd station is projected to increase from -43.44 to -44.05. SSP5-8.5 is likelier to cause severe and prolonged HMDI-derived droughts than SSP1-2.6 or the historical period. The analysis suggests that normal drought levels will persist, while mild and severe drought levels will rise in the future. HIGHLIGHTS Using CMIP6 to assess the impact of climate change.; Using compound drought index to monitor hydrological and meteorological drought.;http://wpt.iwaponline.com/content/18/11/2818climate changedroughthbvhmdispeisri |
| spellingShingle | Mahrokh Shafiei Mahnoosh Moghaddasi Kimia Naderi Projections of drought characteristics based on combined drought index under CMIP6 models Water Practice and Technology climate change drought hbv hmdi spei sri |
| title | Projections of drought characteristics based on combined drought index under CMIP6 models |
| title_full | Projections of drought characteristics based on combined drought index under CMIP6 models |
| title_fullStr | Projections of drought characteristics based on combined drought index under CMIP6 models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projections of drought characteristics based on combined drought index under CMIP6 models |
| title_short | Projections of drought characteristics based on combined drought index under CMIP6 models |
| title_sort | projections of drought characteristics based on combined drought index under cmip6 models |
| topic | climate change drought hbv hmdi spei sri |
| url | http://wpt.iwaponline.com/content/18/11/2818 |
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