Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on Atlantic Niño predictive skill
Recent studies suggest that tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, especially those associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), may trigger Atlantic Niño through atmospheric teleconnection. However, it remains unclear whether the former has an impact on the prediction skil...
| Үндсэн зохиолчид: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Формат: | Өгүүллэг |
| Хэл сонгох: | English |
| Хэвлэсэн: |
IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
|
| Цуврал: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Нөхцлүүд: | |
| Онлайн хандалт: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acdc3c |
| _version_ | 1827869766504677376 |
|---|---|
| author | Ao Liu Jinqing Zuo Ben Tian Bo Lu |
| author_facet | Ao Liu Jinqing Zuo Ben Tian Bo Lu |
| author_sort | Ao Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Recent studies suggest that tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, especially those associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), may trigger Atlantic Niño through atmospheric teleconnection. However, it remains unclear whether the former has an impact on the prediction skill of the latter. This work applies hindcasts from 21 operational seasonal forecast systems based on dynamical climate models to verify the impact of the IOD in boreal autumn on the predictive skill of the Atlantic Niño in the following winter. The results indicate that the prediction skills of both the IOD and Atlantic Niño show pronounced seasonality, with a peak in the target season of boreal autumn for the former and in the following winter for the latter. The models with a stronger connection between the boreal autumn IOD and the following winter Atlantic Niño appear to have a higher skill in predicting the latter when compared to the weaker connection models. This leads to a significant in-phase relationship between the prediction skills of the boreal winter Atlantic Niño and the strength of the IOD–Atlantic Niño connection among the models. When compared to the weaker connection models, the stronger connection models tend to simulate a warmer climatological mean of SST in the tropical Indian Ocean during boreal autumn and winter. The warmer climatological mean of SST benefits a stronger atmospheric circulation response to the underlying SST forcing associated with the IOD. This suggests that mean state bias in the tropical Indian Ocean plays a role in modulating the strength of the simulated IOD–Atlantic Niño connection and thus prediction skill of the Atlantic Niño in boreal winter. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4c8e10a3e65b4b3a96de2d4db92664b8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:47Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-4c8e10a3e65b4b3a96de2d4db92664b82023-08-09T15:18:07ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118707401510.1088/1748-9326/acdc3cImpact of Indian Ocean Dipole on Atlantic Niño predictive skillAo Liu0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5424-5164Jinqing Zuo1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7429-9303Ben Tian2Bo Lu3State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences , No. 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of China; China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Centre , No. 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences , No. 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of China; China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Centre , No. 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of ChinaChina Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Centre , No. 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of ChinaChina Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Centre , No. 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of ChinaRecent studies suggest that tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, especially those associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), may trigger Atlantic Niño through atmospheric teleconnection. However, it remains unclear whether the former has an impact on the prediction skill of the latter. This work applies hindcasts from 21 operational seasonal forecast systems based on dynamical climate models to verify the impact of the IOD in boreal autumn on the predictive skill of the Atlantic Niño in the following winter. The results indicate that the prediction skills of both the IOD and Atlantic Niño show pronounced seasonality, with a peak in the target season of boreal autumn for the former and in the following winter for the latter. The models with a stronger connection between the boreal autumn IOD and the following winter Atlantic Niño appear to have a higher skill in predicting the latter when compared to the weaker connection models. This leads to a significant in-phase relationship between the prediction skills of the boreal winter Atlantic Niño and the strength of the IOD–Atlantic Niño connection among the models. When compared to the weaker connection models, the stronger connection models tend to simulate a warmer climatological mean of SST in the tropical Indian Ocean during boreal autumn and winter. The warmer climatological mean of SST benefits a stronger atmospheric circulation response to the underlying SST forcing associated with the IOD. This suggests that mean state bias in the tropical Indian Ocean plays a role in modulating the strength of the simulated IOD–Atlantic Niño connection and thus prediction skill of the Atlantic Niño in boreal winter.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acdc3cAtlantic NiñoIndian Ocean Dipoleprediction skillseasonal prediction |
| spellingShingle | Ao Liu Jinqing Zuo Ben Tian Bo Lu Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on Atlantic Niño predictive skill Environmental Research Letters Atlantic Niño Indian Ocean Dipole prediction skill seasonal prediction |
| title | Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on Atlantic Niño predictive skill |
| title_full | Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on Atlantic Niño predictive skill |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on Atlantic Niño predictive skill |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on Atlantic Niño predictive skill |
| title_short | Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on Atlantic Niño predictive skill |
| title_sort | impact of indian ocean dipole on atlantic nino predictive skill |
| topic | Atlantic Niño Indian Ocean Dipole prediction skill seasonal prediction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acdc3c |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT aoliu impactofindianoceandipoleonatlanticninopredictiveskill AT jinqingzuo impactofindianoceandipoleonatlanticninopredictiveskill AT bentian impactofindianoceandipoleonatlanticninopredictiveskill AT bolu impactofindianoceandipoleonatlanticninopredictiveskill |