Grey GM(1, 1|sin) power model based on oscillation sequences and its application(基于振荡序列的灰色GM(1,1|sin)幂模型及其应用)
针对现实中普遍存在的振荡序列预测问题,传统灰色模型的预测效果并不理想。为此,在现有灰色GM (1,1|sin)模型基础上,提出了GM(1,1|sin)幂模型,给出了最小二乘准则下的参数计算公式;构建了以平均模拟相对误差最小化为目标的非线性优化模型,利用粒子群优化算法求得最优参数。最后,将新模型应用于城市交通流和高新技术产品出口额模拟预测,并将预测结果与传统GM(1,1)模型、GM(1,1)幂模型和GM(1,1|sin)模型进行了比较,结果表明,新模型具有更高的模拟精度,更适合对振荡序列的预测分析。...
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Format: | Article |
Language: | zho |
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Zhejiang University Press
2019-11-01
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Series: | Zhejiang Daxue xuebao. Lixue ban |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2019.06.010 |
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author | ZENGLiang(曾亮) |
author_facet | ZENGLiang(曾亮) |
author_sort | ZENGLiang(曾亮) |
collection | DOAJ |
description | 针对现实中普遍存在的振荡序列预测问题,传统灰色模型的预测效果并不理想。为此,在现有灰色GM (1,1|sin)模型基础上,提出了GM(1,1|sin)幂模型,给出了最小二乘准则下的参数计算公式;构建了以平均模拟相对误差最小化为目标的非线性优化模型,利用粒子群优化算法求得最优参数。最后,将新模型应用于城市交通流和高新技术产品出口额模拟预测,并将预测结果与传统GM(1,1)模型、GM(1,1)幂模型和GM(1,1|sin)模型进行了比较,结果表明,新模型具有更高的模拟精度,更适合对振荡序列的预测分析。 |
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institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
issn | 1008-9497 |
language | zho |
last_indexed | 2024-04-24T16:51:42Z |
publishDate | 2019-11-01 |
publisher | Zhejiang University Press |
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series | Zhejiang Daxue xuebao. Lixue ban |
spelling | doaj.art-4cbad77ce7de4f7bb37b3b0091266e9f2024-03-29T01:58:39ZzhoZhejiang University PressZhejiang Daxue xuebao. Lixue ban1008-94972019-11-0146669770410.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2019.06.010Grey GM(1, 1|sin) power model based on oscillation sequences and its application(基于振荡序列的灰色GM(1,1|sin)幂模型及其应用)ZENGLiang(曾亮)0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7989-4542Department of Basic Courses, Guangdong Polytechnic College, Zhaoqing 526100, Guangdong Province, China(广东理工学院 基础部,广东 肇庆 526100)针对现实中普遍存在的振荡序列预测问题,传统灰色模型的预测效果并不理想。为此,在现有灰色GM (1,1|sin)模型基础上,提出了GM(1,1|sin)幂模型,给出了最小二乘准则下的参数计算公式;构建了以平均模拟相对误差最小化为目标的非线性优化模型,利用粒子群优化算法求得最优参数。最后,将新模型应用于城市交通流和高新技术产品出口额模拟预测,并将预测结果与传统GM(1,1)模型、GM(1,1)幂模型和GM(1,1|sin)模型进行了比较,结果表明,新模型具有更高的模拟精度,更适合对振荡序列的预测分析。https://doi.org/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2019.06.010灰色系统灰色预测模型振荡序列gm(1,1sin)幂模型粒子群优化算法 |
spellingShingle | ZENGLiang(曾亮) Grey GM(1, 1|sin) power model based on oscillation sequences and its application(基于振荡序列的灰色GM(1,1|sin)幂模型及其应用) Zhejiang Daxue xuebao. Lixue ban 灰色系统 灰色预测模型 振荡序列 gm(1,1 sin)幂模型 粒子群优化算法 |
title | Grey GM(1, 1|sin) power model based on oscillation sequences and its application(基于振荡序列的灰色GM(1,1|sin)幂模型及其应用) |
title_full | Grey GM(1, 1|sin) power model based on oscillation sequences and its application(基于振荡序列的灰色GM(1,1|sin)幂模型及其应用) |
title_fullStr | Grey GM(1, 1|sin) power model based on oscillation sequences and its application(基于振荡序列的灰色GM(1,1|sin)幂模型及其应用) |
title_full_unstemmed | Grey GM(1, 1|sin) power model based on oscillation sequences and its application(基于振荡序列的灰色GM(1,1|sin)幂模型及其应用) |
title_short | Grey GM(1, 1|sin) power model based on oscillation sequences and its application(基于振荡序列的灰色GM(1,1|sin)幂模型及其应用) |
title_sort | grey gm 1 1 sin power model based on oscillation sequences and its application 基于振荡序列的灰色gm 1 1 sin 幂模型及其应用 |
topic | 灰色系统 灰色预测模型 振荡序列 gm(1,1 sin)幂模型 粒子群优化算法 |
url | https://doi.org/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2019.06.010 |
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