Building Adaptation Measures Using Future Climate Scenarios—A Scoping Review of Uncertainty Treatment and Communication
The global climate is changing. Predicting the impacts this will have on buildings is the first step in the process of finding suitable building adaptation measures. Future climate adaptation of buildings and infrastructure is a growing field of research, relying on both socio-economical and meteoro...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Buildings |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/13/6/1460 |
| _version_ | 1797595671633592320 |
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| author | Jørn Emil Gaarder Hans Olav Hygen Rolf André Bohne Tore Kvande |
| author_facet | Jørn Emil Gaarder Hans Olav Hygen Rolf André Bohne Tore Kvande |
| author_sort | Jørn Emil Gaarder |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The global climate is changing. Predicting the impacts this will have on buildings is the first step in the process of finding suitable building adaptation measures. Future climate adaptation of buildings and infrastructure is a growing field of research, relying on both socio-economical and meteorological research for input values to the simulation models. Models producing hourly future weather data rely on global climate models which are based on emission scenarios made from assumptions of future political, social, and economic developments. Accounting for the uncertainties from these underlying models as much as possible, and communicating the uncertainties in the results, is obviously paramount for reliable conclusions from the building simulation models. This paper is a scoping review, investigating how 132 studies treat and communicate the string of uncertainties from underlying models connected to future weather file generation in the scientific literature on building adaptation research. The findings suggest that climate-model-induced uncertainties are often under-communicated, due to either insufficient analysis or neglect. The studies that included the most comprehensive analyses of the uncertainties frequently concluded that treatment of these is important for the reliability of the results, and neglecting this could lead to misleading conclusions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T02:39:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4ceecf540494483b9b05e353a718e3f2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2075-5309 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T02:39:38Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Buildings |
| spelling | doaj.art-4ceecf540494483b9b05e353a718e3f22023-11-18T09:38:36ZengMDPI AGBuildings2075-53092023-06-01136146010.3390/buildings13061460Building Adaptation Measures Using Future Climate Scenarios—A Scoping Review of Uncertainty Treatment and CommunicationJørn Emil Gaarder0Hans Olav Hygen1Rolf André Bohne2Tore Kvande3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Norwegian University of Technology and Science (NTNU), 7030 Trondheim, NorwayNorwegian Meteorological Institute (MET), 0313 Oslo, NorwayDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Norwegian University of Technology and Science (NTNU), 7030 Trondheim, NorwayDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Norwegian University of Technology and Science (NTNU), 7030 Trondheim, NorwayThe global climate is changing. Predicting the impacts this will have on buildings is the first step in the process of finding suitable building adaptation measures. Future climate adaptation of buildings and infrastructure is a growing field of research, relying on both socio-economical and meteorological research for input values to the simulation models. Models producing hourly future weather data rely on global climate models which are based on emission scenarios made from assumptions of future political, social, and economic developments. Accounting for the uncertainties from these underlying models as much as possible, and communicating the uncertainties in the results, is obviously paramount for reliable conclusions from the building simulation models. This paper is a scoping review, investigating how 132 studies treat and communicate the string of uncertainties from underlying models connected to future weather file generation in the scientific literature on building adaptation research. The findings suggest that climate-model-induced uncertainties are often under-communicated, due to either insufficient analysis or neglect. The studies that included the most comprehensive analyses of the uncertainties frequently concluded that treatment of these is important for the reliability of the results, and neglecting this could lead to misleading conclusions.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/13/6/1460uncertaintyemission scenarioGCMclimate modelbuilding adaptation measure |
| spellingShingle | Jørn Emil Gaarder Hans Olav Hygen Rolf André Bohne Tore Kvande Building Adaptation Measures Using Future Climate Scenarios—A Scoping Review of Uncertainty Treatment and Communication Buildings uncertainty emission scenario GCM climate model building adaptation measure |
| title | Building Adaptation Measures Using Future Climate Scenarios—A Scoping Review of Uncertainty Treatment and Communication |
| title_full | Building Adaptation Measures Using Future Climate Scenarios—A Scoping Review of Uncertainty Treatment and Communication |
| title_fullStr | Building Adaptation Measures Using Future Climate Scenarios—A Scoping Review of Uncertainty Treatment and Communication |
| title_full_unstemmed | Building Adaptation Measures Using Future Climate Scenarios—A Scoping Review of Uncertainty Treatment and Communication |
| title_short | Building Adaptation Measures Using Future Climate Scenarios—A Scoping Review of Uncertainty Treatment and Communication |
| title_sort | building adaptation measures using future climate scenarios a scoping review of uncertainty treatment and communication |
| topic | uncertainty emission scenario GCM climate model building adaptation measure |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/13/6/1460 |
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