Earthquake probability in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan and people’s risk perceptions: the search for more effective expression
Abstract This study summarizes the findings of an attitude survey focused on people’s perceptions of seismic hazard maps, which illustrate the risk of an earthquake in each location throughout Japan. These seismic hazard maps depict the likelihood of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of “6 Lowe...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
SpringerOpen
2022-05-01
|
| Series: | Earth, Planets and Space |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-022-01627-0 |
| _version_ | 1818202892105940992 |
|---|---|
| author | Sayaka Saito Shinya Yasumoto Naoya Sekiya |
| author_facet | Sayaka Saito Shinya Yasumoto Naoya Sekiya |
| author_sort | Sayaka Saito |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study summarizes the findings of an attitude survey focused on people’s perceptions of seismic hazard maps, which illustrate the risk of an earthquake in each location throughout Japan. These seismic hazard maps depict the likelihood of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of “6 Lower” or more within 30 years, with 3.0% being considered a high possibility. The 3.0% occurrence probability within 30 years can be reworded to 2.0% occurrence probability within 20 years, 0.1% occurrence probability within a year, 4.9% occurrence probability within 50 years, or 39.4% occurrence probability within 500 years when being converted according to a Poisson distribution. In this study, we convert the occurrence probability within 30 years in the seismic hazard maps to obtain that within a year up to that within 1000 years, present the involved risk and demonstrate the yearly probability of the people who see the maps becoming most convinced of the need for countermeasures. Although those are shorter than the occurrence probability within 30 years anyway, it is a characteristic that the peaks existed at the occurrence probability within 10–20 years, not at the occurrence probability within one year or five years. However, the results changed according to the age of the people viewing the maps, and it was when the risk was presented as the occurrence probabilities within 20 and 30 years for the people in their 20–40 s, while it was when the risk was presented the occurrence probabilities within 10 years for the people in their 50–60 s, the perception toward the need of countermeasures increased the most. In addition, regardless of gender and place of residence (coast of the Sea of Japan or the Pacific coast), the perception toward the need of countermeasures peaked at the occurrence probabilities within 10 and 20 years. Graphical Abstract |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T03:16:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4d200370dce8488dafb983f3c27a1f1b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1880-5981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T03:16:40Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth, Planets and Space |
| spelling | doaj.art-4d200370dce8488dafb983f3c27a1f1b2022-12-22T00:40:17ZengSpringerOpenEarth, Planets and Space1880-59812022-05-0174111410.1186/s40623-022-01627-0Earthquake probability in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan and people’s risk perceptions: the search for more effective expressionSayaka Saito0Shinya Yasumoto1Naoya Sekiya2Center for Integrated Disaster Information Research Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies, The University of TokyoCenter for Integrated Disaster Information Research Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies, The University of TokyoCenter for Integrated Disaster Information Research Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies, The University of TokyoAbstract This study summarizes the findings of an attitude survey focused on people’s perceptions of seismic hazard maps, which illustrate the risk of an earthquake in each location throughout Japan. These seismic hazard maps depict the likelihood of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of “6 Lower” or more within 30 years, with 3.0% being considered a high possibility. The 3.0% occurrence probability within 30 years can be reworded to 2.0% occurrence probability within 20 years, 0.1% occurrence probability within a year, 4.9% occurrence probability within 50 years, or 39.4% occurrence probability within 500 years when being converted according to a Poisson distribution. In this study, we convert the occurrence probability within 30 years in the seismic hazard maps to obtain that within a year up to that within 1000 years, present the involved risk and demonstrate the yearly probability of the people who see the maps becoming most convinced of the need for countermeasures. Although those are shorter than the occurrence probability within 30 years anyway, it is a characteristic that the peaks existed at the occurrence probability within 10–20 years, not at the occurrence probability within one year or five years. However, the results changed according to the age of the people viewing the maps, and it was when the risk was presented as the occurrence probabilities within 20 and 30 years for the people in their 20–40 s, while it was when the risk was presented the occurrence probabilities within 10 years for the people in their 50–60 s, the perception toward the need of countermeasures increased the most. In addition, regardless of gender and place of residence (coast of the Sea of Japan or the Pacific coast), the perception toward the need of countermeasures peaked at the occurrence probabilities within 10 and 20 years. Graphical Abstracthttps://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-022-01627-0EarthquakeThe National Seismic Hazard Maps for JapanRisk communicationProbabilityPerception of riskSea of Japan |
| spellingShingle | Sayaka Saito Shinya Yasumoto Naoya Sekiya Earthquake probability in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan and people’s risk perceptions: the search for more effective expression Earth, Planets and Space Earthquake The National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan Risk communication Probability Perception of risk Sea of Japan |
| title | Earthquake probability in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan and people’s risk perceptions: the search for more effective expression |
| title_full | Earthquake probability in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan and people’s risk perceptions: the search for more effective expression |
| title_fullStr | Earthquake probability in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan and people’s risk perceptions: the search for more effective expression |
| title_full_unstemmed | Earthquake probability in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan and people’s risk perceptions: the search for more effective expression |
| title_short | Earthquake probability in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan and people’s risk perceptions: the search for more effective expression |
| title_sort | earthquake probability in the national seismic hazard maps for japan and people s risk perceptions the search for more effective expression |
| topic | Earthquake The National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan Risk communication Probability Perception of risk Sea of Japan |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-022-01627-0 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sayakasaito earthquakeprobabilityinthenationalseismichazardmapsforjapanandpeoplesriskperceptionsthesearchformoreeffectiveexpression AT shinyayasumoto earthquakeprobabilityinthenationalseismichazardmapsforjapanandpeoplesriskperceptionsthesearchformoreeffectiveexpression AT naoyasekiya earthquakeprobabilityinthenationalseismichazardmapsforjapanandpeoplesriskperceptionsthesearchformoreeffectiveexpression |