Empirical Evidence of Reduced Wildfire Ignition Risk in the Presence of Strong Winds
Anyone who has tried lighting a campfire on a windy day can appreciate how difficult it could be. However, despite real-life experience and despite laboratory experiments which have demonstrated that fire ignition risk dramatically decreases beyond a certain wind threshold, current fire weather indi...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Fire |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/9/338 |
| _version_ | 1797580075835588608 |
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| author | Assaf Shmuel Eyal Heifetz |
| author_facet | Assaf Shmuel Eyal Heifetz |
| author_sort | Assaf Shmuel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Anyone who has tried lighting a campfire on a windy day can appreciate how difficult it could be. However, despite real-life experience and despite laboratory experiments which have demonstrated that fire ignition risk dramatically decreases beyond a certain wind threshold, current fire weather indices (FWIs) do not take this effect into account and assume a monotonic relation between wind velocity and ignition risk. In this paper, we perform a global analysis which empirically quantifies the probability of ignition as a function of wind velocity. Using both traditional methods (a logistic regression and a generalized additive model) and machine learning techniques, we find that beyond a threshold of approximately 3–4 m/s, the ignition risk substantially decreases. The effect holds when accounting for additional factors such as temperature and relative humidity. We recommend updating FWIs to account for this issue. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:46:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4d61581b9b104039be4460a4387220a9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2571-6255 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:46:12Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Fire |
| spelling | doaj.art-4d61581b9b104039be4460a4387220a92023-11-19T10:40:06ZengMDPI AGFire2571-62552023-08-016933810.3390/fire6090338Empirical Evidence of Reduced Wildfire Ignition Risk in the Presence of Strong WindsAssaf Shmuel0Eyal Heifetz1Department of Geophysics, Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978, IsraelDepartment of Geophysics, Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978, IsraelAnyone who has tried lighting a campfire on a windy day can appreciate how difficult it could be. However, despite real-life experience and despite laboratory experiments which have demonstrated that fire ignition risk dramatically decreases beyond a certain wind threshold, current fire weather indices (FWIs) do not take this effect into account and assume a monotonic relation between wind velocity and ignition risk. In this paper, we perform a global analysis which empirically quantifies the probability of ignition as a function of wind velocity. Using both traditional methods (a logistic regression and a generalized additive model) and machine learning techniques, we find that beyond a threshold of approximately 3–4 m/s, the ignition risk substantially decreases. The effect holds when accounting for additional factors such as temperature and relative humidity. We recommend updating FWIs to account for this issue.https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/9/338machine learningfire weather indiceswind velocityforest management |
| spellingShingle | Assaf Shmuel Eyal Heifetz Empirical Evidence of Reduced Wildfire Ignition Risk in the Presence of Strong Winds Fire machine learning fire weather indices wind velocity forest management |
| title | Empirical Evidence of Reduced Wildfire Ignition Risk in the Presence of Strong Winds |
| title_full | Empirical Evidence of Reduced Wildfire Ignition Risk in the Presence of Strong Winds |
| title_fullStr | Empirical Evidence of Reduced Wildfire Ignition Risk in the Presence of Strong Winds |
| title_full_unstemmed | Empirical Evidence of Reduced Wildfire Ignition Risk in the Presence of Strong Winds |
| title_short | Empirical Evidence of Reduced Wildfire Ignition Risk in the Presence of Strong Winds |
| title_sort | empirical evidence of reduced wildfire ignition risk in the presence of strong winds |
| topic | machine learning fire weather indices wind velocity forest management |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/9/338 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT assafshmuel empiricalevidenceofreducedwildfireignitionriskinthepresenceofstrongwinds AT eyalheifetz empiricalevidenceofreducedwildfireignitionriskinthepresenceofstrongwinds |