Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity

This paper proposes a new model for short-term forecasting of electric energy production in a photovoltaic (PV) plant. The model is called HIstorical SImilar MIning (HISIMI) model; its final structure is optimized by using a genetic algorithm, based on data mining techniques applied to historical ca...

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Main Authors: M. Sonia Terreros-Olarte, Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado, L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez, Tiago Santos, Claudio Monteiro
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2013-05-01
Series:Energies
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/5/2624
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author M. Sonia Terreros-Olarte
Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado
L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez
Tiago Santos
Claudio Monteiro
author_facet M. Sonia Terreros-Olarte
Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado
L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez
Tiago Santos
Claudio Monteiro
author_sort M. Sonia Terreros-Olarte
collection DOAJ
description This paper proposes a new model for short-term forecasting of electric energy production in a photovoltaic (PV) plant. The model is called HIstorical SImilar MIning (HISIMI) model; its final structure is optimized by using a genetic algorithm, based on data mining techniques applied to historical cases composed by past forecasted values of weather variables, obtained from numerical tools for weather prediction, and by past production of electric power in a PV plant. The HISIMI model is able to supply spot values of power forecasts, and also the uncertainty, or probabilities, associated with those spot values, providing new useful information to users with respect to traditional forecasting models for PV plants. Such probabilities enable analysis and evaluation of risk associated with those spot forecasts, for example, in offers of energy sale for electricity markets. The results of spot forecasting of an illustrative example obtained with the HISIMI model for a real-life grid-connected PV plant, which shows high intra-hour variability of its actual power output, with forecasting horizons covering the following day, have improved those obtained with other two power spot forecasting models, which are a persistence model and an artificial neural network model.
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spelling doaj.art-4da0374f4b5f4d95a17065199777d1f72022-12-22T02:56:36ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732013-05-01652624264310.3390/en6052624Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical SimilarityM. Sonia Terreros-OlarteIgnacio J. Ramirez-RosadoL. Alfredo Fernandez-JimenezTiago SantosClaudio MonteiroThis paper proposes a new model for short-term forecasting of electric energy production in a photovoltaic (PV) plant. The model is called HIstorical SImilar MIning (HISIMI) model; its final structure is optimized by using a genetic algorithm, based on data mining techniques applied to historical cases composed by past forecasted values of weather variables, obtained from numerical tools for weather prediction, and by past production of electric power in a PV plant. The HISIMI model is able to supply spot values of power forecasts, and also the uncertainty, or probabilities, associated with those spot values, providing new useful information to users with respect to traditional forecasting models for PV plants. Such probabilities enable analysis and evaluation of risk associated with those spot forecasts, for example, in offers of energy sale for electricity markets. The results of spot forecasting of an illustrative example obtained with the HISIMI model for a real-life grid-connected PV plant, which shows high intra-hour variability of its actual power output, with forecasting horizons covering the following day, have improved those obtained with other two power spot forecasting models, which are a persistence model and an artificial neural network model.http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/5/2624power forecastingsolar energydata mininggenetic algorithm
spellingShingle M. Sonia Terreros-Olarte
Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado
L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez
Tiago Santos
Claudio Monteiro
Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity
Energies
power forecasting
solar energy
data mining
genetic algorithm
title Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity
title_full Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity
title_fullStr Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity
title_full_unstemmed Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity
title_short Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity
title_sort short term power forecasting model for photovoltaic plants based on historical similarity
topic power forecasting
solar energy
data mining
genetic algorithm
url http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/5/2624
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