Estimating and predicting snakebite risk in the Terai region of Nepal through a high-resolution geospatial and One Health approach
Abstract Most efforts to understand snakebite burden in Nepal have been localized to relatively small areas and focused on humans through epidemiological studies. We present the outcomes of a geospatial analysis of the factors influencing snakebite risk in humans and animals, based on both a nationa...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03301-z |
| _version_ | 1819009327924510720 |
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| author | Carlos Ochoa Marta Pittavino Sara Babo Martins Gabriel Alcoba Isabelle Bolon Rafael Ruiz de Castañeda Stéphane Joost Sanjib Kumar Sharma François Chappuis Nicolas Ray |
| author_facet | Carlos Ochoa Marta Pittavino Sara Babo Martins Gabriel Alcoba Isabelle Bolon Rafael Ruiz de Castañeda Stéphane Joost Sanjib Kumar Sharma François Chappuis Nicolas Ray |
| author_sort | Carlos Ochoa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Most efforts to understand snakebite burden in Nepal have been localized to relatively small areas and focused on humans through epidemiological studies. We present the outcomes of a geospatial analysis of the factors influencing snakebite risk in humans and animals, based on both a national-scale multi-cluster random survey and, environmental, climatic, and socio-economic gridded data for the Terai region of Nepal. The resulting Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation models highlight the importance of poverty as a fundamental risk-increasing factor, augmenting the snakebite odds in humans by 63.9 times. For animals, the minimum temperature of the coldest month was the most influential covariate, increasing the snakebite odds 23.4 times. Several risk hotspots were identified along the Terai, helping to visualize at multiple administrative levels the estimated population numbers exposed to different probability risk thresholds in 1 year. These analyses and findings could be replicable in other countries and for other diseases. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T00:54:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4e3aa658bbfd4e93ad4d878b02a40067 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T00:54:37Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-4e3aa658bbfd4e93ad4d878b02a400672022-12-21T19:21:19ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222021-12-0111111310.1038/s41598-021-03301-zEstimating and predicting snakebite risk in the Terai region of Nepal through a high-resolution geospatial and One Health approachCarlos Ochoa0Marta Pittavino1Sara Babo Martins2Gabriel Alcoba3Isabelle Bolon4Rafael Ruiz de Castañeda5Stéphane Joost6Sanjib Kumar Sharma7François Chappuis8Nicolas Ray9Institute of Global Health (IGH), Department of Community Health and Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of GenevaResearch Center for Statistics (RCS), Geneva School of Economics and Management (GSEM), University of GenevaInstitute of Global Health (IGH), Department of Community Health and Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of GenevaInstitute of Global Health (IGH), Department of Community Health and Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of GenevaInstitute of Global Health (IGH), Department of Community Health and Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of GenevaInstitute of Global Health (IGH), Department of Community Health and Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of GenevaLaboratory of Geographic Information Systems (LASIG), School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering (ENAC), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)B.P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences (BPKIHS)Division of Tropical and Humanitarian Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals (HUG)Institute of Global Health (IGH), Department of Community Health and Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of GenevaAbstract Most efforts to understand snakebite burden in Nepal have been localized to relatively small areas and focused on humans through epidemiological studies. We present the outcomes of a geospatial analysis of the factors influencing snakebite risk in humans and animals, based on both a national-scale multi-cluster random survey and, environmental, climatic, and socio-economic gridded data for the Terai region of Nepal. The resulting Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation models highlight the importance of poverty as a fundamental risk-increasing factor, augmenting the snakebite odds in humans by 63.9 times. For animals, the minimum temperature of the coldest month was the most influential covariate, increasing the snakebite odds 23.4 times. Several risk hotspots were identified along the Terai, helping to visualize at multiple administrative levels the estimated population numbers exposed to different probability risk thresholds in 1 year. These analyses and findings could be replicable in other countries and for other diseases.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03301-z |
| spellingShingle | Carlos Ochoa Marta Pittavino Sara Babo Martins Gabriel Alcoba Isabelle Bolon Rafael Ruiz de Castañeda Stéphane Joost Sanjib Kumar Sharma François Chappuis Nicolas Ray Estimating and predicting snakebite risk in the Terai region of Nepal through a high-resolution geospatial and One Health approach Scientific Reports |
| title | Estimating and predicting snakebite risk in the Terai region of Nepal through a high-resolution geospatial and One Health approach |
| title_full | Estimating and predicting snakebite risk in the Terai region of Nepal through a high-resolution geospatial and One Health approach |
| title_fullStr | Estimating and predicting snakebite risk in the Terai region of Nepal through a high-resolution geospatial and One Health approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating and predicting snakebite risk in the Terai region of Nepal through a high-resolution geospatial and One Health approach |
| title_short | Estimating and predicting snakebite risk in the Terai region of Nepal through a high-resolution geospatial and One Health approach |
| title_sort | estimating and predicting snakebite risk in the terai region of nepal through a high resolution geospatial and one health approach |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03301-z |
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