The first two leading modes of the tropical Pacific and their linkage without global warming
A discrepancy remains in the first two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) based on observations since the 1980s. The EOF1 mode, representing the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a robust result. However, the EOF2 fe...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Science Press
2019-03-01
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| Series: | Earth and Planetary Physics |
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| Online Access: | http://www.eppcgs.org/article/doi/10.26464/epp2019019?pageType=en |
| _version_ | 1811295348092567552 |
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| author | Yang Li QuanLiang Chen XiaoRan Liu Nan Xing ZhiGang Cheng HongKe Cai Xin Zhou Dong Chen XiaoFei Wu MingGang Li |
| author_facet | Yang Li QuanLiang Chen XiaoRan Liu Nan Xing ZhiGang Cheng HongKe Cai Xin Zhou Dong Chen XiaoFei Wu MingGang Li |
| author_sort | Yang Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A discrepancy remains in the first two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) based on observations since the 1980s. The EOF1 mode, representing the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a robust result. However, the EOF2 features either El Niño Modoki (EM) or ENSO evolution during different periods, which is probably associated with the impacts of global warming. The underlying question is what the EOF2 mode of the tropical Pacific would be without global warming. Using the CMIP5 preindustrial scenario to exclude the influence of global warming, we find that the EOF1 mode of the tropical Pacific SSTA represents ENSO and that the EOF2 mode is not EM. According to the lead–lag correlation between the ENSO and EOF2 modes, the linkage between these two modes is as follows: …El Niño → EOF2 → La Niña → –EOF2 → El Niño…. By analyzing the evolution of sea surface temperature, surface wind, and subsurface ocean temperature anomalies, we find the mechanism linking the ENSO and EOF2 modes is the air–sea interaction associated with the ENSO cycle. This result suggests that the EOF2 mode represents an aspect of ENSO evolution under preindustrial conditions. Therefore, this study further indicates that the EM is probably due to the influence of global warming. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:31:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4e5ee18ea99c48069e030243d2eb6a36 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2096-3955 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:31:59Z |
| publishDate | 2019-03-01 |
| publisher | Science Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth and Planetary Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-4e5ee18ea99c48069e030243d2eb6a362022-12-22T03:00:24ZengScience PressEarth and Planetary Physics2096-39552019-03-013215716510.26464/epp2019019liyangThe first two leading modes of the tropical Pacific and their linkage without global warmingYang Li0QuanLiang Chen1XiaoRan Liu2Nan Xing3ZhiGang Cheng4HongKe Cai5Xin Zhou6Dong Chen7XiaoFei Wu8MingGang Li9College of Atmospheric Science, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Science, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, ChinaState Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, ChinaBeijing Meteorological Service, Beijing 100875, ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Science, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Science, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Science, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Science, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Science, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Science, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, ChinaA discrepancy remains in the first two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) based on observations since the 1980s. The EOF1 mode, representing the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a robust result. However, the EOF2 features either El Niño Modoki (EM) or ENSO evolution during different periods, which is probably associated with the impacts of global warming. The underlying question is what the EOF2 mode of the tropical Pacific would be without global warming. Using the CMIP5 preindustrial scenario to exclude the influence of global warming, we find that the EOF1 mode of the tropical Pacific SSTA represents ENSO and that the EOF2 mode is not EM. According to the lead–lag correlation between the ENSO and EOF2 modes, the linkage between these two modes is as follows: …El Niño → EOF2 → La Niña → –EOF2 → El Niño…. By analyzing the evolution of sea surface temperature, surface wind, and subsurface ocean temperature anomalies, we find the mechanism linking the ENSO and EOF2 modes is the air–sea interaction associated with the ENSO cycle. This result suggests that the EOF2 mode represents an aspect of ENSO evolution under preindustrial conditions. Therefore, this study further indicates that the EM is probably due to the influence of global warming.http://www.eppcgs.org/article/doi/10.26464/epp2019019?pageType=enel niño-southern oscillation (enso)enso evolutionglobal warmingair–sea interaction |
| spellingShingle | Yang Li QuanLiang Chen XiaoRan Liu Nan Xing ZhiGang Cheng HongKe Cai Xin Zhou Dong Chen XiaoFei Wu MingGang Li The first two leading modes of the tropical Pacific and their linkage without global warming Earth and Planetary Physics el niño-southern oscillation (enso) enso evolution global warming air–sea interaction |
| title | The first two leading modes of the tropical Pacific and their linkage without global warming |
| title_full | The first two leading modes of the tropical Pacific and their linkage without global warming |
| title_fullStr | The first two leading modes of the tropical Pacific and their linkage without global warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | The first two leading modes of the tropical Pacific and their linkage without global warming |
| title_short | The first two leading modes of the tropical Pacific and their linkage without global warming |
| title_sort | first two leading modes of the tropical pacific and their linkage without global warming |
| topic | el niño-southern oscillation (enso) enso evolution global warming air–sea interaction |
| url | http://www.eppcgs.org/article/doi/10.26464/epp2019019?pageType=en |
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