A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries
The paper seeks to develop a predictive model for assessing the impact of the (COVID-19) pandemic on the economies of Eastern Europe, taking into account quarantine measures. Functions of the dependence on the number of the infected populations in Eastern Europe on pandemic duration were calculated...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2020-09-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market and Complexity |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/92 |
| _version_ | 1827610045091676160 |
|---|---|
| author | Marina Vasiljeva Inna Neskorodieva Vadim Ponkratov Nikolay Kuznetsov Vitali Ivlev Marina Ivleva Maksim Maramygin Angelina Zekiy |
| author_facet | Marina Vasiljeva Inna Neskorodieva Vadim Ponkratov Nikolay Kuznetsov Vitali Ivlev Marina Ivleva Maksim Maramygin Angelina Zekiy |
| author_sort | Marina Vasiljeva |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper seeks to develop a predictive model for assessing the impact of the (COVID-19) pandemic on the economies of Eastern Europe, taking into account quarantine measures. Functions of the dependence on the number of the infected populations in Eastern Europe on pandemic duration were calculated based on trend analysis. Factors affecting the intensity of disease and the number of infected persons have been determined. Integral model of their influence has been built using regression analysis. Based on the values of the factors, the number of infected people and the rate of infection were predicted for each of the Eastern European countries. The prognostic duration of the stage of exponential disease growth and the total duration of quarantine (epidemiological saturation point) are substantiated. The predicted decline in Eastern European GDP due to COVID-19 has been estimated based on the construction of a prognostic regression model. The results obtained can be used by state authorities and economic agents as a tool for active and preventive response. They can also serve as an example of the urgent need to develop, especially in non-standard situations, mechanisms and products of open innovation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:43:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4e72a145d7104b92b2aba8d3e3b4363f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2199-8531 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:43:07Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market and Complexity |
| spelling | doaj.art-4e72a145d7104b92b2aba8d3e3b4363f2023-12-03T04:15:49ZengElsevierJournal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market and Complexity2199-85312020-09-016929210.3390/joitmc6030092A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European CountriesMarina Vasiljeva0Inna Neskorodieva1Vadim Ponkratov2Nikolay Kuznetsov3Vitali Ivlev4Marina Ivleva5Maksim Maramygin6Angelina Zekiy7Atlantic Science and Technology Academic Press, Boston, MA 01233, USAEducational and Scientific Institute, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, 4 Svobody Sq., 61022 Kharkiv, UkraineFinancial Policy Center, Department of Public Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 49 Leningradsky Ave., 125993 Moscow, RussiaResearch Institute of Digital Transformation Management, State University of Management, 99 Ryazansky Av., 109542 Moscow, RussiaPhilosophy Department, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 5/1 Baumanskaya 2-ya St., 105005 Moscow, RussiaHistory and Philosophy Department, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, 36 Stremyanny Lane, 117997 Moscow, RussiaDepartment of Finance, Monetary Circulation and Credit, Ural State University of Economics, 62 8 Marta St., 620144 Yekaterinburg, RussiaProsthodontics Department, Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Trubetskaya St., 8, Bd. 2, 119991 Moscow, RussiaThe paper seeks to develop a predictive model for assessing the impact of the (COVID-19) pandemic on the economies of Eastern Europe, taking into account quarantine measures. Functions of the dependence on the number of the infected populations in Eastern Europe on pandemic duration were calculated based on trend analysis. Factors affecting the intensity of disease and the number of infected persons have been determined. Integral model of their influence has been built using regression analysis. Based on the values of the factors, the number of infected people and the rate of infection were predicted for each of the Eastern European countries. The prognostic duration of the stage of exponential disease growth and the total duration of quarantine (epidemiological saturation point) are substantiated. The predicted decline in Eastern European GDP due to COVID-19 has been estimated based on the construction of a prognostic regression model. The results obtained can be used by state authorities and economic agents as a tool for active and preventive response. They can also serve as an example of the urgent need to develop, especially in non-standard situations, mechanisms and products of open innovation.https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/92COVID-19 pandemicEastern Europeeconomyexportimportopen innovations |
| spellingShingle | Marina Vasiljeva Inna Neskorodieva Vadim Ponkratov Nikolay Kuznetsov Vitali Ivlev Marina Ivleva Maksim Maramygin Angelina Zekiy A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market and Complexity COVID-19 pandemic Eastern Europe economy export import open innovations |
| title | A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries |
| title_full | A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries |
| title_fullStr | A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries |
| title_short | A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries |
| title_sort | predictive model for assessing the impact of the covid 19 pandemic on the economies of some eastern european countries |
| topic | COVID-19 pandemic Eastern Europe economy export import open innovations |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2199-8531/6/3/92 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT marinavasiljeva apredictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT innaneskorodieva apredictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT vadimponkratov apredictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT nikolaykuznetsov apredictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT vitaliivlev apredictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT marinaivleva apredictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT maksimmaramygin apredictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT angelinazekiy apredictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT marinavasiljeva predictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT innaneskorodieva predictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT vadimponkratov predictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT nikolaykuznetsov predictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT vitaliivlev predictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT marinaivleva predictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT maksimmaramygin predictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries AT angelinazekiy predictivemodelforassessingtheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheeconomiesofsomeeasterneuropeancountries |