Prediction of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Korean population
OBJECTIVES Proper risk assessment is important for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, no validated risk prediction tools are currently in use in Korea. This study sought to develop a 10-year risk prediction model for incident ASCVD. METHODS Using the N...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Korean Society of Epidemiology
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Epidemiology and Health |
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| Online Access: | http://www.e-epih.org/upload/epih-45-e2023052.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797305288213135360 |
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| author | Sangwoo Park Yong-Giun Kim Soe Hee Ann Young-Rak Cho Shin-Jae Kim Seungbong Han Gyung-Min Park |
| author_facet | Sangwoo Park Yong-Giun Kim Soe Hee Ann Young-Rak Cho Shin-Jae Kim Seungbong Han Gyung-Min Park |
| author_sort | Sangwoo Park |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | OBJECTIVES Proper risk assessment is important for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, no validated risk prediction tools are currently in use in Korea. This study sought to develop a 10-year risk prediction model for incident ASCVD. METHODS Using the National Sample Cohort of Korea, 325,934 subjects aged 20-80 years without previous ASCVD were enrolled. ASCVD was defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The Korean atherosclerotic cardiovas cular disease risk prediction (K-CVD) model was developed separately for men and women using the development dataset and validated in the validation dataset. Furthermore, the model performance was compared with the Framingham risk score (FRS) and pooled cohort equation (PCE). RESULTS Over 10 years of follow-up, 4,367 ASCVD events occurred in the overall population. The predictors of ASCVD included in the model were age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, lipid profiles, urine protein, and lipid-lowering and blood pressure-lowering treatment. The K-CVD model had good discrimination and strong calibration in the validation dataset (time-dependent area under the curve=0.846; 95% confidence interval, 0.828 to 0.864; calibration χ2=4.73, goodness-of-fit p=0.32). Compared with our model, both FRS and PCE showed worse calibration, overestimating ASCVD risk in the Korean population. CONCLUSIONS Through a nationwide cohort, we developed a model for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction in a contemporary Korean population. The K-CVD model showed excellent discrimination and calibration in Koreans. This population-based risk prediction tool would help to appropriately identify high-risk individuals and provide preventive interventions in the Korean population. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T00:24:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4e8726748a354c5799d54605dd71a1be |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2092-7193 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T00:24:47Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Korean Society of Epidemiology |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemiology and Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-4e8726748a354c5799d54605dd71a1be2024-02-16T01:04:24ZengKorean Society of EpidemiologyEpidemiology and Health2092-71932023-05-014510.4178/epih.e20230521414Prediction of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Korean populationSangwoo Park0Yong-Giun Kim1Soe Hee Ann2Young-Rak Cho3Shin-Jae Kim4Seungbong Han5Gyung-Min Park6 Department of Cardiology, Ulsan University Hospital, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Ulsan, Korea Department of Cardiology, Ulsan University Hospital, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Ulsan, Korea Department of Cardiology, Ulsan University Hospital, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Ulsan, Korea Department of Cardiology, Dong-A University Hospital, Busan, Korea Department of Cardiology, Ulsan University Hospital, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Ulsan, Korea Department of Biostatistics, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea Department of Cardiology, Ulsan University Hospital, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Ulsan, KoreaOBJECTIVES Proper risk assessment is important for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, no validated risk prediction tools are currently in use in Korea. This study sought to develop a 10-year risk prediction model for incident ASCVD. METHODS Using the National Sample Cohort of Korea, 325,934 subjects aged 20-80 years without previous ASCVD were enrolled. ASCVD was defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The Korean atherosclerotic cardiovas cular disease risk prediction (K-CVD) model was developed separately for men and women using the development dataset and validated in the validation dataset. Furthermore, the model performance was compared with the Framingham risk score (FRS) and pooled cohort equation (PCE). RESULTS Over 10 years of follow-up, 4,367 ASCVD events occurred in the overall population. The predictors of ASCVD included in the model were age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, lipid profiles, urine protein, and lipid-lowering and blood pressure-lowering treatment. The K-CVD model had good discrimination and strong calibration in the validation dataset (time-dependent area under the curve=0.846; 95% confidence interval, 0.828 to 0.864; calibration χ2=4.73, goodness-of-fit p=0.32). Compared with our model, both FRS and PCE showed worse calibration, overestimating ASCVD risk in the Korean population. CONCLUSIONS Through a nationwide cohort, we developed a model for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction in a contemporary Korean population. The K-CVD model showed excellent discrimination and calibration in Koreans. This population-based risk prediction tool would help to appropriately identify high-risk individuals and provide preventive interventions in the Korean population.http://www.e-epih.org/upload/epih-45-e2023052.pdfcardiovascular diseaserisk assessmentrisk factorsprimary prevention |
| spellingShingle | Sangwoo Park Yong-Giun Kim Soe Hee Ann Young-Rak Cho Shin-Jae Kim Seungbong Han Gyung-Min Park Prediction of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Korean population Epidemiology and Health cardiovascular disease risk assessment risk factors primary prevention |
| title | Prediction of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Korean population |
| title_full | Prediction of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Korean population |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Korean population |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Korean population |
| title_short | Prediction of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Korean population |
| title_sort | prediction of the 10 year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the korean population |
| topic | cardiovascular disease risk assessment risk factors primary prevention |
| url | http://www.e-epih.org/upload/epih-45-e2023052.pdf |
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