Simulation of Saltwater Intrusion in the Minho River Estuary under Sea Level Rise Scenarios
Estuaries are areas that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Understanding how these impacts affect these complex environments and their uses is essential. This paper presents a work based on an analytical solution and 2DH and 3D versions of the Delft3D numerical model to simulate the M...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/13/2313 |
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| author | Guilherme Menten Willian Melo José Pinho Isabel Iglesias José Antunes do Carmo |
| author_facet | Guilherme Menten Willian Melo José Pinho Isabel Iglesias José Antunes do Carmo |
| author_sort | Guilherme Menten |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Estuaries are areas that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Understanding how these impacts affect these complex environments and their uses is essential. This paper presents a work based on an analytical solution and 2DH and 3D versions of the Delft3D numerical model to simulate the Minho River estuary and its saline wedge length under climate change projections. Temperature observations at several locations in the estuary region were selected to determine which model better simulated the temperature patterns. Specific simulations were performed for the observation periods. Sixteen numerical model scenarios were proposed, considering a varying tide, different river flows, and several SLR projections based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2050 and 2100. The analytical solution was also calibrated using the numerical model solutions. The results show that although there is no relevant stratification, there was a difference in both models in which in the worst climate change scenario, the length of the saline intrusion increased up to 28 km in the 2DH model and 30 km in the 3D model. It was concluded that the 3D model results were more precise, but both configurations can provide insights into how the saline intrusion will be affected. Additionally, the excellent agreement between the analytical solution and the results of the numerical models allowed us to consider the analytical solution a helpful tool for practical applications. It was demonstrated that freshwater discharges and bed slopes are the most critical drivers for the saline intrusion length in the Minho River estuary as they have more impact than the increase in sea level. Therefore, flow regulation can be an excellent way to control saline intrusion in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T01:25:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4ee05cdfc90a46da9f3903e8bd403086 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T01:25:21Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-4ee05cdfc90a46da9f3903e8bd4030862023-11-18T17:46:22ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412023-06-011513231310.3390/w15132313Simulation of Saltwater Intrusion in the Minho River Estuary under Sea Level Rise ScenariosGuilherme Menten0Willian Melo1José Pinho2Isabel Iglesias3José Antunes do Carmo4Centre of Territory, Environment and Construction (CTAC), Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minho, 4704-553 Braga, PortugalCentre of Territory, Environment and Construction (CTAC), Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minho, 4704-553 Braga, PortugalCentre of Territory, Environment and Construction (CTAC), Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minho, 4704-553 Braga, PortugalInterdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research (CIIMAR/CIMAR), University of Porto, 4450-208 Matosinhos, PortugalFaculty of Science and Technology, University of Coimbra, 3030-788 Coimbra, PortugalEstuaries are areas that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Understanding how these impacts affect these complex environments and their uses is essential. This paper presents a work based on an analytical solution and 2DH and 3D versions of the Delft3D numerical model to simulate the Minho River estuary and its saline wedge length under climate change projections. Temperature observations at several locations in the estuary region were selected to determine which model better simulated the temperature patterns. Specific simulations were performed for the observation periods. Sixteen numerical model scenarios were proposed, considering a varying tide, different river flows, and several SLR projections based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2050 and 2100. The analytical solution was also calibrated using the numerical model solutions. The results show that although there is no relevant stratification, there was a difference in both models in which in the worst climate change scenario, the length of the saline intrusion increased up to 28 km in the 2DH model and 30 km in the 3D model. It was concluded that the 3D model results were more precise, but both configurations can provide insights into how the saline intrusion will be affected. Additionally, the excellent agreement between the analytical solution and the results of the numerical models allowed us to consider the analytical solution a helpful tool for practical applications. It was demonstrated that freshwater discharges and bed slopes are the most critical drivers for the saline intrusion length in the Minho River estuary as they have more impact than the increase in sea level. Therefore, flow regulation can be an excellent way to control saline intrusion in the future.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/13/2313climate changeDelft3Dsaline intrusionMinho River estuary |
| spellingShingle | Guilherme Menten Willian Melo José Pinho Isabel Iglesias José Antunes do Carmo Simulation of Saltwater Intrusion in the Minho River Estuary under Sea Level Rise Scenarios Water climate change Delft3D saline intrusion Minho River estuary |
| title | Simulation of Saltwater Intrusion in the Minho River Estuary under Sea Level Rise Scenarios |
| title_full | Simulation of Saltwater Intrusion in the Minho River Estuary under Sea Level Rise Scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Simulation of Saltwater Intrusion in the Minho River Estuary under Sea Level Rise Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulation of Saltwater Intrusion in the Minho River Estuary under Sea Level Rise Scenarios |
| title_short | Simulation of Saltwater Intrusion in the Minho River Estuary under Sea Level Rise Scenarios |
| title_sort | simulation of saltwater intrusion in the minho river estuary under sea level rise scenarios |
| topic | climate change Delft3D saline intrusion Minho River estuary |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/13/2313 |
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