Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 Data
The objective of this analysis is to provide an up-to-date observation-based assessment of the evolution of temperature extremes in the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) region and evaluate the performance of global climate model simulations of the past four decades. A list of indices of temperature e...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2020-07-01
|
| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/8/813 |
| _version_ | 1797560603732082688 |
|---|---|
| author | Athanasios Ntoumos Panos Hadjinicolaou George Zittis Jos Lelieveld |
| author_facet | Athanasios Ntoumos Panos Hadjinicolaou George Zittis Jos Lelieveld |
| author_sort | Athanasios Ntoumos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The objective of this analysis is to provide an up-to-date observation-based assessment of the evolution of temperature extremes in the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) region and evaluate the performance of global climate model simulations of the past four decades. A list of indices of temperature extremes, based on absolute level, threshold, percentile and duration is used, as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). We use daily near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin) to derive the indices of extremes for the period 1980–2018 from: (i) re-analyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA-2) and gridded observational data (Berkeley Earth) and (ii) 18 CMIP5 model results combining historical (1950–2005) and scenario runs (2006–2018 under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The CMIP5 results show domain-wide strong, statistically significant warming, while the observation based ones are more spatially variable. The CMIP5 models capture the climatology of the hottest areas in the western parts of northern Africa and the Gulf region with the thewarmest day (TXx) > 46 °C and warmest night (TNx) > 33 °C. For these indices, the observed trends are about 0.3–0.4 °C/decade while they are 0.1–0.2 °C/decade stronger in the CMIP5 results. Overall, the modeled climate warming up to 2018, as reflected in the indices of temperature extremes is confirmed by re-analysis and observational data. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:03:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4f10fb246ba342fc82a8a278e3f9f485 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:03:03Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-4f10fb246ba342fc82a8a278e3f9f4852023-11-20T08:42:13ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332020-07-0111881310.3390/atmos11080813Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 DataAthanasios Ntoumos0Panos Hadjinicolaou1George Zittis2Jos Lelieveld3Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, Nicosia 2121, CyprusClimate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, Nicosia 2121, CyprusClimate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, Nicosia 2121, CyprusClimate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, Nicosia 2121, CyprusThe objective of this analysis is to provide an up-to-date observation-based assessment of the evolution of temperature extremes in the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) region and evaluate the performance of global climate model simulations of the past four decades. A list of indices of temperature extremes, based on absolute level, threshold, percentile and duration is used, as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). We use daily near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin) to derive the indices of extremes for the period 1980–2018 from: (i) re-analyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA-2) and gridded observational data (Berkeley Earth) and (ii) 18 CMIP5 model results combining historical (1950–2005) and scenario runs (2006–2018 under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The CMIP5 results show domain-wide strong, statistically significant warming, while the observation based ones are more spatially variable. The CMIP5 models capture the climatology of the hottest areas in the western parts of northern Africa and the Gulf region with the thewarmest day (TXx) > 46 °C and warmest night (TNx) > 33 °C. For these indices, the observed trends are about 0.3–0.4 °C/decade while they are 0.1–0.2 °C/decade stronger in the CMIP5 results. Overall, the modeled climate warming up to 2018, as reflected in the indices of temperature extremes is confirmed by re-analysis and observational data.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/8/813climatologytemperature extremesglobal modelsmediterraneanMiddle EastNorth Africa |
| spellingShingle | Athanasios Ntoumos Panos Hadjinicolaou George Zittis Jos Lelieveld Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 Data Atmosphere climatology temperature extremes global models mediterranean Middle East North Africa |
| title | Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 Data |
| title_full | Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 Data |
| title_fullStr | Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 Data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 Data |
| title_short | Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 Data |
| title_sort | updated assessment of temperature extremes over the middle east north africa mena region from observational and cmip5 data |
| topic | climatology temperature extremes global models mediterranean Middle East North Africa |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/8/813 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT athanasiosntoumos updatedassessmentoftemperatureextremesoverthemiddleeastnorthafricamenaregionfromobservationalandcmip5data AT panoshadjinicolaou updatedassessmentoftemperatureextremesoverthemiddleeastnorthafricamenaregionfromobservationalandcmip5data AT georgezittis updatedassessmentoftemperatureextremesoverthemiddleeastnorthafricamenaregionfromobservationalandcmip5data AT joslelieveld updatedassessmentoftemperatureextremesoverthemiddleeastnorthafricamenaregionfromobservationalandcmip5data |