Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections
We have investigated the spatio-temporal carbon balance patterns resulting from forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with output from 18 climate models of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble. We found robust patterns in terms of an extra-tropical loss of carbon, e...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2012-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008 |
| _version_ | 1797748419233579008 |
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| author | A Ahlström G Schurgers A Arneth B Smith |
| author_facet | A Ahlström G Schurgers A Arneth B Smith |
| author_sort | A Ahlström |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We have investigated the spatio-temporal carbon balance patterns resulting from forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with output from 18 climate models of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble. We found robust patterns in terms of an extra-tropical loss of carbon, except for a temperature induced shift in phenology, leading to an increased spring uptake of carbon. There are less robust patterns in the tropics, a result of disagreement in projections of precipitation and temperature. Although the simulations generally agree well in terms of the sign of the carbon balance change in the middle to high latitudes, there are large differences in the magnitude of the loss between simulations. Together with tropical uncertainties these discrepancies accumulate over time, resulting in large differences in total carbon uptake over the coming century (−0.97–2.27 Pg C yr ^−1 during 2006–2100). The terrestrial biosphere becomes a net source of carbon in ten of the 18 simulations adding to the atmospheric CO _2 concentrations, while the remaining eight simulations indicate an increased sink of carbon. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:05:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4f68e4b77b64467f9b1d1b2d3f112708 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:05:29Z |
| publishDate | 2012-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-4f68e4b77b64467f9b1d1b2d3f1127082023-08-09T14:23:14ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262012-01-017404400810.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projectionsA Ahlström0G Schurgers1A Arneth2B Smith3Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University , Sölvegatan 12, SE-223 62 Lund, SwedenDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University , Sölvegatan 12, SE-223 62 Lund, SwedenInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research—Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute for Technology , Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, D-82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University , Sölvegatan 12, SE-223 62 Lund, SwedenWe have investigated the spatio-temporal carbon balance patterns resulting from forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with output from 18 climate models of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble. We found robust patterns in terms of an extra-tropical loss of carbon, except for a temperature induced shift in phenology, leading to an increased spring uptake of carbon. There are less robust patterns in the tropics, a result of disagreement in projections of precipitation and temperature. Although the simulations generally agree well in terms of the sign of the carbon balance change in the middle to high latitudes, there are large differences in the magnitude of the loss between simulations. Together with tropical uncertainties these discrepancies accumulate over time, resulting in large differences in total carbon uptake over the coming century (−0.97–2.27 Pg C yr ^−1 during 2006–2100). The terrestrial biosphere becomes a net source of carbon in ten of the 18 simulations adding to the atmospheric CO _2 concentrations, while the remaining eight simulations indicate an increased sink of carbon.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/04400892.70.Bc92.70.Mn92.70.Np92.60.RyLPJ-GUESSNEE |
| spellingShingle | A Ahlström G Schurgers A Arneth B Smith Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections Environmental Research Letters 92.70.Bc 92.70.Mn 92.70.Np 92.60.Ry LPJ-GUESS NEE |
| title | Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections |
| title_full | Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections |
| title_fullStr | Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections |
| title_short | Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections |
| title_sort | robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to cmip5 climate change projections |
| topic | 92.70.Bc 92.70.Mn 92.70.Np 92.60.Ry LPJ-GUESS NEE |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008 |
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