An interpretation of focal point responses as non-additive beliefs
This paper provides a novel interpretation of focal point responses (0, 50, 100 percent) in terms of ambiguous beliefs dynamics that arise in new developments of decision theory such as Choquet expected utility theory. In particular, focal point responses that have been updated from nonfocal respons...
| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2014-09-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/13/13522/jdm13522.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797728063185747968 |
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| author | Aylit Tina Romm |
| author_facet | Aylit Tina Romm |
| author_sort | Aylit Tina Romm |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper provides a novel interpretation of focal point
responses (0, 50, 100 percent) in terms of ambiguous beliefs dynamics that
arise in new developments of decision theory such as Choquet expected utility
theory. In particular, focal point responses that have been updated from
nonfocal responses can be interpreted as non-additive beliefs that account for
psychological bias. A focal point response of 100 that has been updated from a
nonfocal response can be represented by a non-additive belief that has been
updated according to the Overestimating Update Rule. A focal point response of
zero that has been updated from a nonfocal response can be represented by a
non-additive belief that has been updated according to the Underestimating
Update Rule. Focal point responses given consistently over time are not subject
to psychological bias, and can be represented by additive probability
distributions. Estimation results show such a model to be a very good fit to
the data. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T11:08:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4fb6e22a8fb543b5814c07f5ca649371 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T11:08:28Z |
| publishDate | 2014-09-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-4fb6e22a8fb543b5814c07f5ca6493712023-09-02T03:19:43ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752014-09-0195387402An interpretation of focal point responses as non-additive beliefsAylit Tina RommThis paper provides a novel interpretation of focal point responses (0, 50, 100 percent) in terms of ambiguous beliefs dynamics that arise in new developments of decision theory such as Choquet expected utility theory. In particular, focal point responses that have been updated from nonfocal responses can be interpreted as non-additive beliefs that account for psychological bias. A focal point response of 100 that has been updated from a nonfocal response can be represented by a non-additive belief that has been updated according to the Overestimating Update Rule. A focal point response of zero that has been updated from a nonfocal response can be represented by a non-additive belief that has been updated according to the Underestimating Update Rule. Focal point responses given consistently over time are not subject to psychological bias, and can be represented by additive probability distributions. Estimation results show such a model to be a very good fit to the data.http://journal.sjdm.org/13/13522/jdm13522.pdffocal point response Choquet expected utilitypsychological bias non-additive belief update rule. |
| spellingShingle | Aylit Tina Romm An interpretation of focal point responses as non-additive beliefs Judgment and Decision Making focal point response Choquet expected utility psychological bias non-additive belief update rule. |
| title | An interpretation of
focal point responses as non-additive beliefs |
| title_full | An interpretation of
focal point responses as non-additive beliefs |
| title_fullStr | An interpretation of
focal point responses as non-additive beliefs |
| title_full_unstemmed | An interpretation of
focal point responses as non-additive beliefs |
| title_short | An interpretation of
focal point responses as non-additive beliefs |
| title_sort | interpretation of focal point responses as non additive beliefs |
| topic | focal point response Choquet expected utility psychological bias non-additive belief update rule. |
| url | http://journal.sjdm.org/13/13522/jdm13522.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT aylittinaromm aninterpretationoffocalpointresponsesasnonadditivebeliefs AT aylittinaromm interpretationoffocalpointresponsesasnonadditivebeliefs |