Physically-based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessment
Populations and property values are increasing in tropical cyclone prone regions, driving up repair and replacement costs following a tropical cyclone impact. Climate change influences on tropical cyclones and sea levels will only exacerbate these rises. For example, Australia's Severe Tropical...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2019-12-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094718302123 |
| _version_ | 1811306249505996800 |
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| author | Cindy L. Bruyère James M. Done Abigail B. Jaye Greg J. Holland Bruce Buckley David J. Henderson Mark Leplastrier Peter Chan |
| author_facet | Cindy L. Bruyère James M. Done Abigail B. Jaye Greg J. Holland Bruce Buckley David J. Henderson Mark Leplastrier Peter Chan |
| author_sort | Cindy L. Bruyère |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Populations and property values are increasing in tropical cyclone prone regions, driving up repair and replacement costs following a tropical cyclone impact. Climate change influences on tropical cyclones and sea levels will only exacerbate these rises. For example, Australia's Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie in 2017 was one of the most destructive cyclones to make landfall in Australia since Tropical Cyclone Tracy in 1974. The primary impacts of Cyclone Debbie were due to extreme short duration intense wind driven rainfall and widespread major flooding, both linked to uncharacteristically warm sea surface temperatures. Studying the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones is limited by the lack of well observed historical events. Traditional hazard risk assessment approaches are limited since they are primarily based on statistical models which only deal with single meteorological hazards, or use simplified parameterized relationships when more than one phenomenon is included. Here we explore the value of dynamical models for creating targeted, detailed, and physically plausible multi-hazard tropical cyclone scenarios, through the development of a modeling system that i) retains a high degree of simulation control, ii) is globally applicable, and iii) is responsive to climate variability and change. Application of the modeling system to a thermodynamic climate change scenario finds that the tropical cyclone penetrates much further inland with a marked expansion of the heavy rainfall area, resulting in significantly larger areas subjected to damaging and destructive wind speeds and rainfall totals capable of producing flash and riverine flooding. Keywords: Tropical cyclones, WRF, Hybrid approach, Risk modeling |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T08:41:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-4fc3cde6e64d42cdbf53c44de733fb8f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T08:41:01Z |
| publishDate | 2019-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj.art-4fc3cde6e64d42cdbf53c44de733fb8f2022-12-22T02:53:53ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472019-12-0126Physically-based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessmentCindy L. Bruyère0James M. Done1Abigail B. Jaye2Greg J. Holland3Bruce Buckley4David J. Henderson5Mark Leplastrier6Peter Chan7National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder, CO, 80301, USA; Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom, 2531, South Africa; Corresponding author. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder, CO, 80301, USA.National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder, CO, 80301, USANational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder, CO, 80301, USANational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder, CO, 80301, USAInsurance Australia Group Limited, Tower Two, Darling Park, 201 Sussex Street, Sydney, NSW, 2000, AustraliaInsurance Australia Group Limited, Tower Two, Darling Park, 201 Sussex Street, Sydney, NSW, 2000, AustraliaInsurance Australia Group Limited, Tower Two, Darling Park, 201 Sussex Street, Sydney, NSW, 2000, AustraliaInsurance Australia Group Limited, Tower Two, Darling Park, 201 Sussex Street, Sydney, NSW, 2000, AustraliaPopulations and property values are increasing in tropical cyclone prone regions, driving up repair and replacement costs following a tropical cyclone impact. Climate change influences on tropical cyclones and sea levels will only exacerbate these rises. For example, Australia's Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie in 2017 was one of the most destructive cyclones to make landfall in Australia since Tropical Cyclone Tracy in 1974. The primary impacts of Cyclone Debbie were due to extreme short duration intense wind driven rainfall and widespread major flooding, both linked to uncharacteristically warm sea surface temperatures. Studying the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones is limited by the lack of well observed historical events. Traditional hazard risk assessment approaches are limited since they are primarily based on statistical models which only deal with single meteorological hazards, or use simplified parameterized relationships when more than one phenomenon is included. Here we explore the value of dynamical models for creating targeted, detailed, and physically plausible multi-hazard tropical cyclone scenarios, through the development of a modeling system that i) retains a high degree of simulation control, ii) is globally applicable, and iii) is responsive to climate variability and change. Application of the modeling system to a thermodynamic climate change scenario finds that the tropical cyclone penetrates much further inland with a marked expansion of the heavy rainfall area, resulting in significantly larger areas subjected to damaging and destructive wind speeds and rainfall totals capable of producing flash and riverine flooding. Keywords: Tropical cyclones, WRF, Hybrid approach, Risk modelinghttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094718302123 |
| spellingShingle | Cindy L. Bruyère James M. Done Abigail B. Jaye Greg J. Holland Bruce Buckley David J. Henderson Mark Leplastrier Peter Chan Physically-based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessment Weather and Climate Extremes |
| title | Physically-based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessment |
| title_full | Physically-based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessment |
| title_fullStr | Physically-based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Physically-based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessment |
| title_short | Physically-based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessment |
| title_sort | physically based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessment |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094718302123 |
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