Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Listeria monocytogenes Time to Grow on Refrigerated Ham: A Study Supporting Risk-based Decisions for Consumers’ Health
This study assessed the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) ham during storage under conditions simulating domestic practices with the intention to offer support in the elaboration of food safety policies that should better protect consumers against food poisoning at home. RTE ham...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Food Protection |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0362028X22000382 |
| _version_ | 1797774609124163584 |
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| author | Florentina Ionela Bucur Daniela Borda Corina Neagu Leontina Grigore-Gurgu Anca Ioana Nicolau |
| author_facet | Florentina Ionela Bucur Daniela Borda Corina Neagu Leontina Grigore-Gurgu Anca Ioana Nicolau |
| author_sort | Florentina Ionela Bucur |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study assessed the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) ham during storage under conditions simulating domestic practices with the intention to offer support in the elaboration of food safety policies that should better protect consumers against food poisoning at home. RTE ham, artificially contaminated at either medium (102–103 CFU/g) or high (104–105 CFU/g) concentration, was stored at both isothermal (4℃ in a refrigerator able to maintain a relatively constant temperature and 5℃ and 7℃ in a refrigerator with fluctuating temperature) and dynamic (5℃ and 7℃ with intermittent exposure to ambient temperature, e.g. 25℃) conditions. Under isothermal conditions, the increasing storage temperature determined a significantly increased (p < 0.05) capacity of L. monocytogenes to grow. The kinetic growth parameters were derived by fitting the Baranyi and Roberts model to the experimental data and, based on the maximum specific growth rates, it was estimated the temperature dependence of L. monocytogenes growth in RTE ham. At medium contamination level, sanitary risk time calculation revealed that, unlike storage at 5℃ and 7℃, storage at 4℃ of the RTE ham extends the time period during which the product is safe for consumption by ∼40 and 52%, respectively. However, the real temperature fluctuations included in the Monte Carlo simulations at low L. monocytogenes counts (1, 5 and 10 CFU/g) have shortened the safety margins. Stochastic models also proved to be useful tools for describing the pathogen’s behavior when refrigeration of the RTE ham alternates with periods of ham being kept at room temperature, considered dynamic conditions of growth. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T22:23:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-50175103321d497bb8175166ff3fd516 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0362-028X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T22:23:20Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Food Protection |
| spelling | doaj.art-50175103321d497bb8175166ff3fd5162023-07-23T04:53:37ZengElsevierJournal of Food Protection0362-028X2023-01-01861100026Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Listeria monocytogenes Time to Grow on Refrigerated Ham: A Study Supporting Risk-based Decisions for Consumers’ HealthFlorentina Ionela Bucur0Daniela Borda1Corina Neagu2Leontina Grigore-Gurgu3Anca Ioana Nicolau4Dunărea de Jos University of Galați, Faculty of Food Science and Engineering, Domnească Street 111, Galați 800201, RomaniaDunărea de Jos University of Galați, Faculty of Food Science and Engineering, Domnească Street 111, Galați 800201, RomaniaDunărea de Jos University of Galați, Faculty of Food Science and Engineering, Domnească Street 111, Galați 800201, RomaniaDunărea de Jos University of Galați, Faculty of Food Science and Engineering, Domnească Street 111, Galați 800201, RomaniaCorresponding author.; Dunărea de Jos University of Galați, Faculty of Food Science and Engineering, Domnească Street 111, Galați 800201, RomaniaThis study assessed the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) ham during storage under conditions simulating domestic practices with the intention to offer support in the elaboration of food safety policies that should better protect consumers against food poisoning at home. RTE ham, artificially contaminated at either medium (102–103 CFU/g) or high (104–105 CFU/g) concentration, was stored at both isothermal (4℃ in a refrigerator able to maintain a relatively constant temperature and 5℃ and 7℃ in a refrigerator with fluctuating temperature) and dynamic (5℃ and 7℃ with intermittent exposure to ambient temperature, e.g. 25℃) conditions. Under isothermal conditions, the increasing storage temperature determined a significantly increased (p < 0.05) capacity of L. monocytogenes to grow. The kinetic growth parameters were derived by fitting the Baranyi and Roberts model to the experimental data and, based on the maximum specific growth rates, it was estimated the temperature dependence of L. monocytogenes growth in RTE ham. At medium contamination level, sanitary risk time calculation revealed that, unlike storage at 5℃ and 7℃, storage at 4℃ of the RTE ham extends the time period during which the product is safe for consumption by ∼40 and 52%, respectively. However, the real temperature fluctuations included in the Monte Carlo simulations at low L. monocytogenes counts (1, 5 and 10 CFU/g) have shortened the safety margins. Stochastic models also proved to be useful tools for describing the pathogen’s behavior when refrigeration of the RTE ham alternates with periods of ham being kept at room temperature, considered dynamic conditions of growth.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0362028X22000382Food safetyMeat productsRefrigeratorsStochastic modelingTemperature fluctuation |
| spellingShingle | Florentina Ionela Bucur Daniela Borda Corina Neagu Leontina Grigore-Gurgu Anca Ioana Nicolau Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Listeria monocytogenes Time to Grow on Refrigerated Ham: A Study Supporting Risk-based Decisions for Consumers’ Health Journal of Food Protection Food safety Meat products Refrigerators Stochastic modeling Temperature fluctuation |
| title | Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Listeria monocytogenes Time to Grow on Refrigerated Ham: A Study Supporting Risk-based Decisions for Consumers’ Health |
| title_full | Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Listeria monocytogenes Time to Grow on Refrigerated Ham: A Study Supporting Risk-based Decisions for Consumers’ Health |
| title_fullStr | Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Listeria monocytogenes Time to Grow on Refrigerated Ham: A Study Supporting Risk-based Decisions for Consumers’ Health |
| title_full_unstemmed | Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Listeria monocytogenes Time to Grow on Refrigerated Ham: A Study Supporting Risk-based Decisions for Consumers’ Health |
| title_short | Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Listeria monocytogenes Time to Grow on Refrigerated Ham: A Study Supporting Risk-based Decisions for Consumers’ Health |
| title_sort | deterministic approach and monte carlo simulation to predict listeria monocytogenes time to grow on refrigerated ham a study supporting risk based decisions for consumers health |
| topic | Food safety Meat products Refrigerators Stochastic modeling Temperature fluctuation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0362028X22000382 |
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