Integrating Large-Scale Online Surveys and Aggregate Data at the Constituency Level: The Estimation of Voter Transitions in the 2015 British General Elections
What have been the underlying voter shifts that led to the victory of the Con- servative Party in the 2015 British general election – against all predictions by pollsters? Analyses of voter transitions based on (online) surveys and recall ques- tions are plagued by sampling and response biases, whe...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
European Survey Research Association
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Survey Research Methods |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ojs.ub.uni-konstanz.de/srm/article/view/7628 |
| _version_ | 1811320007264567296 |
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| author | Paul W. Thurner Ingrid Mauerer Maxim Bort André Klima Helmut Küchenhoff |
| author_facet | Paul W. Thurner Ingrid Mauerer Maxim Bort André Klima Helmut Küchenhoff |
| author_sort | Paul W. Thurner |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
What have been the underlying voter shifts that led to the victory of the Con-
servative Party in the 2015 British general election – against all predictions by
pollsters? Analyses of voter transitions based on (online) surveys and recall ques-
tions are plagued by sampling and response biases, whereas aggregate data analyses
are suspect of the well-known ecological fallacy. We propose a systematic statistical
combination of individual and aggregate data at the constituency level to identify
regional electoral shifts between the 2010 to 2015 British general elections, with a
particular focus on England. Large-scale individual data collected by the British
Election Study Internet Panel (BESIP) allow us to locate more than 28,000 respon-
dents in their constituencies. We estimate transitions based on a recently developed
Bayesian Hierarchical Hybrid Multinomial Dirichlet (HHMD) model. We discover
a clear deviance from pure RxC ecological inference and from pure online panel-
based estimations of transition matrices. Convergence diagnostics corroborate the
superiority of the hybrid models.
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| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T12:51:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-501d924f308d461f8eb90828bfb6238e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1864-3361 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T12:51:59Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | European Survey Research Association |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Survey Research Methods |
| spelling | doaj.art-501d924f308d461f8eb90828bfb6238e2022-12-22T02:46:11ZengEuropean Survey Research AssociationSurvey Research Methods1864-33612020-09-0114510.18148/srm/2020.v14i5.7628Integrating Large-Scale Online Surveys and Aggregate Data at the Constituency Level: The Estimation of Voter Transitions in the 2015 British General ElectionsPaul W. Thurner0Ingrid Mauerer1Maxim Bort2André Klima3Helmut Küchenhoff4Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich (LMU)Department of Political Science, LMU MunichStatistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, LMU MunichStatistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, LMU MunichStatistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, LMU Munich What have been the underlying voter shifts that led to the victory of the Con- servative Party in the 2015 British general election – against all predictions by pollsters? Analyses of voter transitions based on (online) surveys and recall ques- tions are plagued by sampling and response biases, whereas aggregate data analyses are suspect of the well-known ecological fallacy. We propose a systematic statistical combination of individual and aggregate data at the constituency level to identify regional electoral shifts between the 2010 to 2015 British general elections, with a particular focus on England. Large-scale individual data collected by the British Election Study Internet Panel (BESIP) allow us to locate more than 28,000 respon- dents in their constituencies. We estimate transitions based on a recently developed Bayesian Hierarchical Hybrid Multinomial Dirichlet (HHMD) model. We discover a clear deviance from pure RxC ecological inference and from pure online panel- based estimations of transition matrices. Convergence diagnostics corroborate the superiority of the hybrid models. https://ojs.ub.uni-konstanz.de/srm/article/view/7628voter transitionsecological inferenceBritish election study internet panelhybrid models |
| spellingShingle | Paul W. Thurner Ingrid Mauerer Maxim Bort André Klima Helmut Küchenhoff Integrating Large-Scale Online Surveys and Aggregate Data at the Constituency Level: The Estimation of Voter Transitions in the 2015 British General Elections Survey Research Methods voter transitions ecological inference British election study internet panel hybrid models |
| title | Integrating Large-Scale Online Surveys and Aggregate Data at the Constituency Level: The Estimation of Voter Transitions in the 2015 British General Elections |
| title_full | Integrating Large-Scale Online Surveys and Aggregate Data at the Constituency Level: The Estimation of Voter Transitions in the 2015 British General Elections |
| title_fullStr | Integrating Large-Scale Online Surveys and Aggregate Data at the Constituency Level: The Estimation of Voter Transitions in the 2015 British General Elections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Integrating Large-Scale Online Surveys and Aggregate Data at the Constituency Level: The Estimation of Voter Transitions in the 2015 British General Elections |
| title_short | Integrating Large-Scale Online Surveys and Aggregate Data at the Constituency Level: The Estimation of Voter Transitions in the 2015 British General Elections |
| title_sort | integrating large scale online surveys and aggregate data at the constituency level the estimation of voter transitions in the 2015 british general elections |
| topic | voter transitions ecological inference British election study internet panel hybrid models |
| url | https://ojs.ub.uni-konstanz.de/srm/article/view/7628 |
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