Effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a causality analysis using empirical dynamic modeling
Given the vital role of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) as water tower in Asia and regulator for regional and even global climate, the relationship between climate change and vegetation dynamics on it has received considerable focused attention. Climate change may influence the vegetation growth on...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023032085 |
| _version_ | 1797815568618749952 |
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| author | Zhaoni Li Hongchun Qu Lin Li Jian Zheng Dianwen Wei Fude Wang |
| author_facet | Zhaoni Li Hongchun Qu Lin Li Jian Zheng Dianwen Wei Fude Wang |
| author_sort | Zhaoni Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Given the vital role of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) as water tower in Asia and regulator for regional and even global climate, the relationship between climate change and vegetation dynamics on it has received considerable focused attention. Climate change may influence the vegetation growth on the plateau, but clear empirical evidence of such causal linkages is sparse. Herein, using datasets CRU-TS v4.04 and AVHHR NDVI from 1981 to 2019, we quantify causal effects of climate factors on vegetation dynamics with an empirical dynamical model (EDM) -- a nonlinear dynamical systems analysis approach based on state-space reconstruction rather than correlation. Results showed the following: (1) climate change promotes the growth of vegetation on the QTP, and specifically, this favorable influence of temperature is stronger than precipitation's; (2) the direction and strength of climate effects on vegetation varied over time, and the effects are seasonally different; (3) a significant increase in temperature and a slight increase in precipitation are beneficial to vegetation growth, specifically, NDVI will increase within 2% in the next 40 years with the climate trend of warming and humidity. Besides the above results, another interesting finding is that the two seasons in which precipitation strongly influence vegetation in the Three-River Source region (part of the QTP) are spring and winter. This study provides insights into the mechanisms by which climate change affects vegetation growth on the QTP, aiding in the modeling of vegetation dynamics in future scenarios. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T08:24:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-506add2186ca48b48c39a1cad1e94f89 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T08:24:47Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj.art-506add2186ca48b48c39a1cad1e94f892023-05-31T04:46:16ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402023-05-0195e16001Effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a causality analysis using empirical dynamic modelingZhaoni Li0Hongchun Qu1Lin Li2Jian Zheng3Dianwen Wei4Fude Wang5College of Computer Science and Technology, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065, China; College of Computer, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, 810008, China; Institute of Ecological Safety Forewarning and Control, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065, ChinaCollege of Computer Science and Technology, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065, China; College of Automation, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065, China; Institute of Ecological Safety Forewarning and Control, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065, China; Corresponding author. College of Computer Science and Technology, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065, China.College of Computer Science and Technology, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065, ChinaCollege of Computer Science and Technology, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065, ChinaInstitute of Natural Resources and Ecology, Heilongjiang Academy of Sciences, Harbin, 150040, ChinaInstitute of Forestry Science of Heilongjiang Province, Harbin, 150081, ChinaGiven the vital role of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) as water tower in Asia and regulator for regional and even global climate, the relationship between climate change and vegetation dynamics on it has received considerable focused attention. Climate change may influence the vegetation growth on the plateau, but clear empirical evidence of such causal linkages is sparse. Herein, using datasets CRU-TS v4.04 and AVHHR NDVI from 1981 to 2019, we quantify causal effects of climate factors on vegetation dynamics with an empirical dynamical model (EDM) -- a nonlinear dynamical systems analysis approach based on state-space reconstruction rather than correlation. Results showed the following: (1) climate change promotes the growth of vegetation on the QTP, and specifically, this favorable influence of temperature is stronger than precipitation's; (2) the direction and strength of climate effects on vegetation varied over time, and the effects are seasonally different; (3) a significant increase in temperature and a slight increase in precipitation are beneficial to vegetation growth, specifically, NDVI will increase within 2% in the next 40 years with the climate trend of warming and humidity. Besides the above results, another interesting finding is that the two seasons in which precipitation strongly influence vegetation in the Three-River Source region (part of the QTP) are spring and winter. This study provides insights into the mechanisms by which climate change affects vegetation growth on the QTP, aiding in the modeling of vegetation dynamics in future scenarios.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023032085Climate changeNDVIEDMCausal effects |
| spellingShingle | Zhaoni Li Hongchun Qu Lin Li Jian Zheng Dianwen Wei Fude Wang Effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a causality analysis using empirical dynamic modeling Heliyon Climate change NDVI EDM Causal effects |
| title | Effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a causality analysis using empirical dynamic modeling |
| title_full | Effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a causality analysis using empirical dynamic modeling |
| title_fullStr | Effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a causality analysis using empirical dynamic modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a causality analysis using empirical dynamic modeling |
| title_short | Effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a causality analysis using empirical dynamic modeling |
| title_sort | effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics of the qinghai tibet plateau a causality analysis using empirical dynamic modeling |
| topic | Climate change NDVI EDM Causal effects |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023032085 |
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