Prediction of ecological security patterns based on urban expansion: A case study of Chengdu
Urbanisation affects the health and stability of ecosystem significantly. Constructing a scientific ecological security pattern (ESP) is of paramount importance for safeguarding the health of ecosystems within a region, optimising ecological spaces, and ensuring sustainability. To investigate the ef...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23016096 |
| _version_ | 1797364222079795200 |
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| author | Yang Zhao Li He Wenqian Bai Zhengwei He Fang Luo Zhifei Wang |
| author_facet | Yang Zhao Li He Wenqian Bai Zhengwei He Fang Luo Zhifei Wang |
| author_sort | Yang Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Urbanisation affects the health and stability of ecosystem significantly. Constructing a scientific ecological security pattern (ESP) is of paramount importance for safeguarding the health of ecosystems within a region, optimising ecological spaces, and ensuring sustainability. To investigate the effect of urbanisation on the ESP, we utilised the Vigour–Organisation–Resilience-Services (VORS) model to analyse the changes in ecosystem health (EH) and identify degraded areas in the city of Chengdu. In this case study. We used the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) Model to predict the urban expansion trends in 2035 and evaluate the changing ESP. Additionally, we used the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model and circuit theory to construct an ecological network to facilitate multilayer planning of ESP. We identified an ecological source area of approximately 4484.29 km2 and a recovery zone of 1608.35 km2 for managing EH degradation within the ecological source. An ecological conservation zone of 987.48 km2 with restricted development outside the ecological source, and a restoration zone of 71.66 km2 to mitigate the impact of urban expansion on ecological security were also identified. Seven stable corridors with consistent spatial patterns and pressure levels and six potential corridors await restoration. Based on the analysis of changes in ecosystem health and dynamic ESPs, different scenarios were simulated for 2035. The findings suggested significant variations in EH and ESP around 2010 despite rapid expansion in Chengdu. The ecological environment was partially restored by increasing the land area and controlling its contraction. Therefore, scientific planning of ESPs, limiting the boundaries of urban expansion, and accurately assessing the health of ecosystems are crucial for ensuring ecological security. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:32:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-506afdfa2e17459caaff8f96d21cf42c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:32:11Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-506afdfa2e17459caaff8f96d21cf42c2024-01-06T04:38:38ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2024-01-01158111467Prediction of ecological security patterns based on urban expansion: A case study of ChengduYang Zhao0Li He1Wenqian Bai2Zhengwei He3Fang Luo4Zhifei Wang5State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China; College of Earth Sciences, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China; College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China; Corresponding author at: No. 1, East Third Road, Erxianqiao, Chenghua District, Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, Zip code: 610059, China.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China; College of Earth Sciences, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China; College of Earth Sciences, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China; College of Earth Sciences, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China; College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, ChinaUrbanisation affects the health and stability of ecosystem significantly. Constructing a scientific ecological security pattern (ESP) is of paramount importance for safeguarding the health of ecosystems within a region, optimising ecological spaces, and ensuring sustainability. To investigate the effect of urbanisation on the ESP, we utilised the Vigour–Organisation–Resilience-Services (VORS) model to analyse the changes in ecosystem health (EH) and identify degraded areas in the city of Chengdu. In this case study. We used the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) Model to predict the urban expansion trends in 2035 and evaluate the changing ESP. Additionally, we used the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model and circuit theory to construct an ecological network to facilitate multilayer planning of ESP. We identified an ecological source area of approximately 4484.29 km2 and a recovery zone of 1608.35 km2 for managing EH degradation within the ecological source. An ecological conservation zone of 987.48 km2 with restricted development outside the ecological source, and a restoration zone of 71.66 km2 to mitigate the impact of urban expansion on ecological security were also identified. Seven stable corridors with consistent spatial patterns and pressure levels and six potential corridors await restoration. Based on the analysis of changes in ecosystem health and dynamic ESPs, different scenarios were simulated for 2035. The findings suggested significant variations in EH and ESP around 2010 despite rapid expansion in Chengdu. The ecological environment was partially restored by increasing the land area and controlling its contraction. Therefore, scientific planning of ESPs, limiting the boundaries of urban expansion, and accurately assessing the health of ecosystems are crucial for ensuring ecological security.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23016096Ecological security patternsEcosystem health assessmentPLUS ModelCircuit theoryChengdu CityChina |
| spellingShingle | Yang Zhao Li He Wenqian Bai Zhengwei He Fang Luo Zhifei Wang Prediction of ecological security patterns based on urban expansion: A case study of Chengdu Ecological Indicators Ecological security patterns Ecosystem health assessment PLUS Model Circuit theory Chengdu City China |
| title | Prediction of ecological security patterns based on urban expansion: A case study of Chengdu |
| title_full | Prediction of ecological security patterns based on urban expansion: A case study of Chengdu |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of ecological security patterns based on urban expansion: A case study of Chengdu |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of ecological security patterns based on urban expansion: A case study of Chengdu |
| title_short | Prediction of ecological security patterns based on urban expansion: A case study of Chengdu |
| title_sort | prediction of ecological security patterns based on urban expansion a case study of chengdu |
| topic | Ecological security patterns Ecosystem health assessment PLUS Model Circuit theory Chengdu City China |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23016096 |
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