Quantifying uncertainty and resilience on coral reefs using a Bayesian approach
Coral reefs are rapidly deteriorating globally. The contemporary management option favors managing for resilience to provide reefs with the capacity to tolerate human-induced disturbances. Yet resilience is most commonly defined as the capacity of a system to absorb disturbances without changing fun...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044051 |
| _version_ | 1827870564061020160 |
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| author | R van Woesik |
| author_facet | R van Woesik |
| author_sort | R van Woesik |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Coral reefs are rapidly deteriorating globally. The contemporary management option favors managing for resilience to provide reefs with the capacity to tolerate human-induced disturbances. Yet resilience is most commonly defined as the capacity of a system to absorb disturbances without changing fundamental processes or functionality. Quantifying no change, or the uncertainty of a null hypothesis, is nonsensical using frequentist statistics, but is achievable using a Bayesian approach. This study outlines a practical Bayesian framework that quantifies the resilience of coral reefs using two inter-related models. The first model examines the functionality of coral reefs in the context of their reef-building capacity, whereas the second model examines the recovery rates of coral cover after disturbances. Quantifying intrinsic rates of increase in coral cover and habitat-specific, steady-state equilibria are useful proxies of resilience. A reduction in the intrinsic rate of increase following a disturbance, or the slowing of recovery over time, can be useful indicators of stress; a change in the steady-state equilibrium suggests a phase shift. Quantifying the uncertainty of key reef-building processes and recovery parameters, and comparing these parameters against benchmarks, facilitates the detection of loss of resilience and provides signals of imminent change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-507209c199414ca99c62915436cb61b3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:29Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-507209c199414ca99c62915436cb61b32023-08-09T14:42:46ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262013-01-018404405110.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044051Quantifying uncertainty and resilience on coral reefs using a Bayesian approachR van Woesik0Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology , 150 West University Boulevard, Melbourne, FL 32901, USACoral reefs are rapidly deteriorating globally. The contemporary management option favors managing for resilience to provide reefs with the capacity to tolerate human-induced disturbances. Yet resilience is most commonly defined as the capacity of a system to absorb disturbances without changing fundamental processes or functionality. Quantifying no change, or the uncertainty of a null hypothesis, is nonsensical using frequentist statistics, but is achievable using a Bayesian approach. This study outlines a practical Bayesian framework that quantifies the resilience of coral reefs using two inter-related models. The first model examines the functionality of coral reefs in the context of their reef-building capacity, whereas the second model examines the recovery rates of coral cover after disturbances. Quantifying intrinsic rates of increase in coral cover and habitat-specific, steady-state equilibria are useful proxies of resilience. A reduction in the intrinsic rate of increase following a disturbance, or the slowing of recovery over time, can be useful indicators of stress; a change in the steady-state equilibrium suggests a phase shift. Quantifying the uncertainty of key reef-building processes and recovery parameters, and comparing these parameters against benchmarks, facilitates the detection of loss of resilience and provides signals of imminent change.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044051coral reefsrecoveryresilienceclimateBayesian |
| spellingShingle | R van Woesik Quantifying uncertainty and resilience on coral reefs using a Bayesian approach Environmental Research Letters coral reefs recovery resilience climate Bayesian |
| title | Quantifying uncertainty and resilience on coral reefs using a Bayesian approach |
| title_full | Quantifying uncertainty and resilience on coral reefs using a Bayesian approach |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying uncertainty and resilience on coral reefs using a Bayesian approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying uncertainty and resilience on coral reefs using a Bayesian approach |
| title_short | Quantifying uncertainty and resilience on coral reefs using a Bayesian approach |
| title_sort | quantifying uncertainty and resilience on coral reefs using a bayesian approach |
| topic | coral reefs recovery resilience climate Bayesian |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044051 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rvanwoesik quantifyinguncertaintyandresilienceoncoralreefsusingabayesianapproach |