Solar wind driven empirical forecast models of the time derivative of the ground magnetic field
Empirical models are developed to provide 10–30-min forecasts of the magnitude of the time derivative of local horizontal ground geomagnetic field (|dBh/dt|) over Europe. The models are driven by ACE solar wind data. A major part of the work has been devoted to the search and selection of datasets t...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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EDP Sciences
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2015008 |
| _version_ | 1818393952294797312 |
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| author | Wintoft Peter Wik Magnus Viljanen Ari |
| author_facet | Wintoft Peter Wik Magnus Viljanen Ari |
| author_sort | Wintoft Peter |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Empirical models are developed to provide 10–30-min forecasts of the magnitude of the time derivative of local horizontal ground geomagnetic field (|dBh/dt|) over Europe. The models are driven by ACE solar wind data. A major part of the work has been devoted to the search and selection of datasets to support the model development. To simplify the problem, but at the same time capture sudden changes, 30-min maximum values of |dBh/dt| are forecast with a cadence of 1 min. Models are tested both with and without the use of ACE SWEPAM plasma data. It is shown that the models generally capture sudden increases in |dBh/dt| that are associated with sudden impulses (SI). The SI is the dominant disturbance source for geomagnetic latitudes below 50° N and with minor contribution from substorms. However, at occasions, large disturbances can be seen associated with geomagnetic pulsations. For higher latitudes longer lasting disturbances, associated with substorms, are generally also captured. It is also shown that the models using only solar wind magnetic field as input perform in most cases equally well as models with plasma data. The models have been verified using different approaches including the extremal dependence index which is suitable for rare events. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T05:53:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-50923305dc564eb887b9bf54ddadd216 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2115-7251 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T05:53:29Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | EDP Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-50923305dc564eb887b9bf54ddadd2162022-12-21T23:14:39ZengEDP SciencesJournal of Space Weather and Space Climate2115-72512015-01-015A710.1051/swsc/2015008swsc140042Solar wind driven empirical forecast models of the time derivative of the ground magnetic fieldWintoft PeterWik MagnusViljanen AriEmpirical models are developed to provide 10–30-min forecasts of the magnitude of the time derivative of local horizontal ground geomagnetic field (|dBh/dt|) over Europe. The models are driven by ACE solar wind data. A major part of the work has been devoted to the search and selection of datasets to support the model development. To simplify the problem, but at the same time capture sudden changes, 30-min maximum values of |dBh/dt| are forecast with a cadence of 1 min. Models are tested both with and without the use of ACE SWEPAM plasma data. It is shown that the models generally capture sudden increases in |dBh/dt| that are associated with sudden impulses (SI). The SI is the dominant disturbance source for geomagnetic latitudes below 50° N and with minor contribution from substorms. However, at occasions, large disturbances can be seen associated with geomagnetic pulsations. For higher latitudes longer lasting disturbances, associated with substorms, are generally also captured. It is also shown that the models using only solar wind magnetic field as input perform in most cases equally well as models with plasma data. The models have been verified using different approaches including the extremal dependence index which is suitable for rare events.http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2015008Solar windGround magnetic fieldForecast |
| spellingShingle | Wintoft Peter Wik Magnus Viljanen Ari Solar wind driven empirical forecast models of the time derivative of the ground magnetic field Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate Solar wind Ground magnetic field Forecast |
| title | Solar wind driven empirical forecast models of the time derivative of the ground magnetic field |
| title_full | Solar wind driven empirical forecast models of the time derivative of the ground magnetic field |
| title_fullStr | Solar wind driven empirical forecast models of the time derivative of the ground magnetic field |
| title_full_unstemmed | Solar wind driven empirical forecast models of the time derivative of the ground magnetic field |
| title_short | Solar wind driven empirical forecast models of the time derivative of the ground magnetic field |
| title_sort | solar wind driven empirical forecast models of the time derivative of the ground magnetic field |
| topic | Solar wind Ground magnetic field Forecast |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2015008 |
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